So on the year I'm 39-21 with my best bets after another 4-1 week in Week 12. Riding high. Feeling confident. Except this week's picks kind of terrify me. Not gonna lie. Little scared by the lines. That's OK.
Too much confidence can be bad. Now let's go crush some more picks and make some more coin.
Dolphins -3.5 vs. Ravens: There’s nothing good about what’s going on in Miami right now. The Dolphins are a mess, and every time they play the Jets they fire a coach. Not a good look -- first Joe Philbin after the London debacle and now Bill Lazor after their latest loss. The good news? Ryan Tannehill has something to prove, in a big way. He needs to show he can run the offense with some freedom and I expect him to do that, peppering Jarvis Landry with tons of targets against a Charmin-soft secondary for the Ravens.
Cardinals -5.5 at Rams: The only concern here is Jeff Fisher cranks up his team because of the comments about their effort. Otherwise the Cardinals are going to lob up big play after big play after big play against this defense with Carson Palmer not worrying about Robert Quinn chasing him down. The David Johnson dance party is going to be a big one in this game.
Buccaneers -1.5 vs. Falcons: Atlanta’s bound to right the ship eventually, and this could be a big game for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, who exploded against Lovie Smith’s defense a few weeks back. But they’re struggling too badly right now to be moving the line away from the standard -3 for a home game. Jameis Winston is playing well under center and Doug Martin’s running very effectively as of late. I’ll keep riding the Buccaneers.
Vikings +1 vs. Seahawks: The Seahawks are hot lately and worked themselves back into the playoff -- and division-title(!) -- conversation with a big win against the Steelers thanks to an offensive explosion. But scoring on Pittsburgh at home and scoring on Minnesota on the road are two different things, and Mike Zimmer’s unit steps up. I’ve also got a sneaking suspicion Adrian Peterson, despite going against a tough run defense, has a field day this week. Just one of those hunches.
Giants +2.5 vs. Jets: Coin flip here with the Giants offensive line being banged up and the Jets secondary being an issue. Some serious concerns about the G-men stopping Chris Ivory and protecting Eli Manning but give me the side with Odell Beckham, Jr. the way he’s been playing and no Darrelle Revis, especially if it involves getting some points.
