Throughout the first three games of their season, the New England Patriots have looked as dominant as ever, besting the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets by a combined score of 103-17. Even when they were finally tested last week by the Buffalo Bills, experience inevitably showed through, as the Patriots forced four turnovers to secure a 16-10 win despite being out-gained by 151 yards. Now, the Patriots will visit an increasingly desperate Washington Redskins squad that is off to an 0-4 start with rumors swirling about the future of head coach Jay Gruden. New England is a 16.5-point favorite for the 1 p.m. ET kickoff at FedEx Field. The total is down to 42 from 47 in the latest Patriots vs. Redskins odds amid uncertainty around the Redskins' quarterback situation. But before you make your Week 5 NFL predictions, see the Patriots vs. Redskins picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Redskins vs. Patriots 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows the Redskins were gutted last time out. Washington had only eight first downs against the Giants and converted just two-of-11 third downs. As a result, Washington didn't hit 200 yards of total offense. Standout wide receiver Terry McLaurin sat with a hamstring injury and could be sidelined once again on Sunday. However, the Patriots have failed to cover their last two games, which had NFL spreads of seven and 21. They're also just 1-1 against the number as a road favorite.
The model also knows that the Patriots boast an experienced defense that makes stops when it matters most. New England is allowing just a 13.5 percent third-down conversion rate (best in the NFL) and has allowed just one touchdown on four trips inside the red zone this season.
The Patriots have also forced 10 turnovers and racked up 18 sacks, disrupting the rhythm of opposing offenses. They've also scored three defensive and special teams touchdowns, providing sparks even as the offense has struggled to establish consistency in the running game. They're No. 1 in points allowed and yards allowed.
So who wins Redskins vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Redskins spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.
