In a normal year there are a multitude of teams looking to trade down from the top half of the first round, but very few willing to pay the price to move up.
This does not appear to be a normal year. In a multitude of ways.
Of course, nothing is truly normal with the world still fighting the pandemic and this draft process is even more unusual than last year. There was no combine. Getting standard metrics, numbers and across-the-board medicals has been anything but standard. Evaluating prospects -- many of whom opted out or played very sparingly in 2020 -- is more challenging than ever, and meeting them in the normal fashion with private dinners and private workouts and getting to see how they fare in your facility around your coaches is simply impossible.
Not happening.
Consider as well what just transpired in free agency. Fewer teams spent big, many talented players lingered on the market -- or are still available -- than in the past. The unprecedented and -- pre-pandemic, inconceivable -- decline in the 2021 salary cap left more clubs with their hands tied from a cap perspective, or fewer owners prepared to spend their way out of it, than we have come to expect. All of those market factors, coupled with a draft in which several potentially generational talents exist at some of the most premium positions in all of pro sports, and one could anticipate a landscape in which there are both more teams inclined to move up due to want or need, and a requisite amount of potentially transcendent players to warrant such activity.
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Never has there been a bigger premium on securing the best cheap, young talent in a draft given the salary cap's nosedive. The difficulties in evaluating these prospects as teams normally could will create an environment in which progressive franchises that believe they have inherent advantages in analytics or scouting -- or models combining the two -- could prosper, while others struggle to adapt to this constricted scouting landscape.
And thus they might be even more inclined to throw assets on the table in order to secure a particular player at a particular draft selection. It could make for a wild and wacky April, to say nothing of the fact that players like Russell Wilson, Orlando Brown Jr. and other veterans could be available for trade before the draft as well. Add in the fact that teams like Carolina, Philadelphia, New England, New Orleans, San Francisco, Washington, Pittsburgh -- for starters -- could be looking to move up for a quarterback, and the reality that five (at a minimum) are going to come off the board on the first day of the draft, and the trade talk will be considerable.
These players are already drawing chatter among general managers as players being worth trading up for, and as more pro days are complete and draft boards become closer to being set, the potential for more activity is ripe.
Trevor Lawrence
The Clemson QB is seen as a plug-and-play immediate starter. As close to a sure thing as you will find. And everyone in the NFL expects the Jaguars to simply select him. And they almost certainly will. But, like a year ago with Joe Burrow, other teams will explore what it might take to get to first overall, and crazier things have happened.
Justin Fields
I'm operating under the assumption that BYU's Zach Wilson will be the second pick of the draft to the Jets, because the teams I am talking to are assuming just as much. Which leaves Miami with the third-overall pick in the catbird seat. They could move down, potentially considerably, and still land a top line tackle or pass rusher. Some GMs believe QBs could go 1-4, as Atlanta is very much exploring options in that market, and teams in the top 10 like the Panthers and Eagles are paying very close attention.
Trey Lance
Yes, the North Dakota State QB only played one game this season, but his athleticism and upside are too inviting for him not to go in the top 10 and quite likely in the top five. Would he get past the Falcons? Could a team target him over Fields in a trade to the third-overall pick? Wouldn't be a shocker either way.
Penei Sewell
The Oregon tackle is drawing legit comparisons to Jonathan Ogden. He is polished and powerful and looks every bit the part of a franchise anchor. Two GMs believe he will be a target in trade at third overall, even above the quarterbacks, and you can see why. The Falcons taking him would make all the sense in the world, but their QB need may push them in another direction. If you move up to three to land him, you probably make their decision for them.
Kyle Pitts
The Florida tight end is a total freak of nature in the best way possible. He is exactly what you look for in a pass catching target in this era of football. Don't even label him a tight end or wide receiver. He can be whatever he wants and there is not a team in the NFL that couldn't use him – even the Patriots after spending $50M over the next two years on two tight ends and even after their receiver splurge, too. If three QBs go and then Sewell, someone very well might try to jump up to five to land him, with the Bengals having so many holes to fill. Then again, landing Pitts to pair with Burrow would be plenty appealing, too.
Ja'Marr Chase
The LSU receiver looks like a plug-and-play Pro Bowler. Not much of a learning curve for him, coming from a pro style offense and possessing every attribute you could want. Does someone want to get in position to get him at the start of what could be a very early and rapid run on receivers in another deep draft at that position?
Rashawn Slater
The Northwestern tackle might be eventually moving to guard – but how did taking a guard really high work out for the Colts a few years ago? If Sewell is a trade target at 3, then don't be surprised if the same thing happens with Slater, who crushed his Pro Day, as there is a definite drop off after these two linemen and the need to linemen never subsides.
Things will come into focus more next month, with this pre-draft period so different and information still being gathered and the process lagging a bit. Teams are still just getting trusted measurements on these prospects, and everything feels a bit delayed. But in the top 10 alone there are abundant options to pique a team's interest.
