Week 17 is upon us. Can you believe it? I can't. This season has flown by and has been pretty action-packed from wire-to-wire. Even now as we are on the doorstep of the regular-season finale, there are a bunch of fireworks ready to pop off with a number of playoff spots still up for grabs. Even as we're waiting for the final playoff picture to come into focus, we have a good sense of which teams are the most serious Super Bowl contenders as we knock on the door of the postseason.
As has been the case throughout the year, the Kansas City Chiefs are still the top dogs on the NFL playground. They are still the odds-on favorite by William Hill Sportsbook to win Super Bowl LV and become the first team since the '03,'04 Patriots to win back-to-back titles. However, Kansas City did see its odds take a step back this week.
After sitting at +160 coming out of Week 15, the Chiefs are now +170 to win it all. While a minor move and still favorable if you're a Chiefs fan, Andy Reid's club has been squeaking by on one-score victories since Week 8, which may have the oddsmakers a bit nervous -- especially after they required a late touchdown drive in the fourth quarter to beat Atlanta in Week 16. Patrick Mahomes has also fallen off of his MVP-pace, completing just 60% of his passes for the month of December while averaging 310.8 yards passing per game to go along with eight touchdowns and four picks. The field is also getting a bit tougher in the conference with Buffalo and Baltimore surging along with Pittsburgh's flash of a turnaround in Week 16, which may also be factoring in.
Before we jump into the rest of these teams, here's a look at the entire top-10 list entering Week 17.
Top 10 Super Bowl odds
- Kansas City Chiefs +170
- Green Bay Packers +550
- New Orleans Saints +700
- Buffalo Bills +900
- Seattle Seahawks +1000
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
- Baltimore Ravens +1200
- Pittsburgh Steelers +2000
- Los Angeles Rams +2500
- Indianapolis Colts +3000
Two top-five teams that have seen their odds remain the same as last week include the Packers and Bills. Even though their odds have stood firm, both are tremendous value plays, and if Green Bay can secure the No. 1 seed in the conference with a win over Chicago in Week 17, it wouldn't be surprising to see their odds increase. As for Buffalo, they were +1600 heading into Week 14 and have shot up the board over the last few games and continue to look like a team that's ready to give the Chiefs a run for their money after hammering New England on Monday night. According to CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh's latest simulations, Buffalo wins the Super Bowl 9.01% of the time, which is the second-highest in the AFC.
New Orleans bumped up to +700 after sitting at +850 last week. They simply road the back of Alvin Kamara and his six-touchdown performance against the Vikings on Christmas and are arguably the best team in the NFC when healthy. They even provide some good value, per Oh's projection, as they win the Super Bowl in 13.46% of his simulations (Green Bay 13.98%).
After beating the Rams to win the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks also saw their odds increase to +1000 after sitting at +1200 coming into Week 16, but Oh's projections only see them winning 4.84% of the time. If you were looking for better value in that area, you could look toward the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +1200, who, despite worse odds than Seattle, win the title in 7.52% of simulations.
