Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
Today is not a holiday, but it probably should be, because it's Super Friday. If you don't know what Super Friday is, don't worry, no one does, because I just invented it now. Today is the final Friday before the start of the NFL season, it's the first Friday of September AND it's a Friday before a holiday weekend. Now you see why I'm calling it Super Friday, and yes, I will be spending the rest of my day trying to trademark my new holiday.
Speaking of holidays, I should tell you that there WILL be a newsletter on Labor Day, and you're definitely going to want to read it because that's when I'll be unveiling ALL of my predictions for the entire 2023 NFL season. If you can't wait until Monday for my predictions, don't worry, we have plenty of predictions in store today.
We rounded up all of our NFL writers here at CBSSports.com and we asked them to vote for an MVP winner and decide who's going to win the Super Bowl. We'll be covering both of those in the rundown.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It's the perfect gift to get for your favorite football-loving friend. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Today's Show: Favorite player props to bet on right now
I'm not sure if I've mentioned this yet, but the NFL season is only six days away and since it's right around the corner, we decided to use today's podcast to unveil our favorite prop bets.
During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling gurus R.J. White and Alex "Propstarz" Selelnick.
The crew covered several of their favorite bets for the season and we've got a few of their props below:
- White: Jahan Dotson OVER 4.5 touchdowns (+100). Dotson caught seven touchdowns as a rookie and that came while playing in a Commanders offense that was going through an identity crisis at QB (The Commanders started three different quarterbacks last year). With Sam Howell now the undisputed starter, White thinks we'll see Dotson easily top his over/under TD total in 2023.
- Katie: Aaron Rodgers OVER 28.5 touchdown passes (-105). This prop really comes down to the way you feel about how Rodgers will play in New York. During his final season in Green Bay, Rodgers threw 26 TD passes, but in both 2020 (48 TD passes) and 2021 (37 TD passes), he blew past 28.5 touchdowns. Katie is pretty confident that we'll see Rodgers top that number for the third time in four years.
- Brinson: Brandon Aiyuk OVER 775.5 receiving yards. After watching Aiyuk go for 1,015 yards last season, Brinson was shocked to see his his over/under set so low for 2023. "I feel like 800 yards is almost a given if he plays 17 games," Brinson said of AIyuk.
If you want to hear the rest of the props, including what Propstarz had to offer, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here.
2. NFL MVP predictions: Here's who we're picking to win
Between now and the start of the NFL season, we're going to be bombarding you with NFL picks and predictions here, so please get mentally prepared. For one of our predictions today, we rounded up 12 of our NFL writers -- and one editor -- here at CBSSports.com and asked them to predict who's going win MVP in 2023.
After going through all the votes, I noticed that the only position we voted for was quarterback, which I guess makes sense since the MVP has been won by a quarterback for 10 straight years. (Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to take home the award and that came all the way back in 2012.)
With that in mind, here's a look at who we voted for to win MVP. (Next to each player's name, you can see their odds at Caesars Sportsbook for winning the award and how many votes they received from each writer):
1. Justin Herbert (+950 -- Win $950 off a $100 bet): Three votes
T-2. Patrick Mahomes (+600): Two votes
T-2. Joe Burrow (+700): Two votes
T-2. Jalen Hurts (+900): Two votes
T-2. Trevor Lawrence (+1800): Two votes
T-6. Dak Prescott (+2500): One vote
T-6. Josh Allen (+750): One vote
Look, I'm just going to come out and admit it: That one vote for Dak Prescott came from me. Dak finally has two top receivers who can both put up big numbers and if you combine that with the fact that the Cowboys running game is a giant question mark this year with Tony Pollard coming off an injury, I think we could see a career year from Prescott.
If you want to see everyone's full explanation for their vote or if you want to know who voted for Josh Allen, you can check all of that out by clicking here.
3. Best Super Bowl bets you can make right now
Not only did our NFL staff hand out votes for MVP today, but they also were kind enough to supply us with their vote for the team that's going to win the Super Bowl this year.
Here's a small sample of our best bets:
- Pete Prisco's bet: 49ers win it all (+600). "This will only happen if Brock Purdy is as good as he was last year, which is a big ask. But experience will help. The roster is loaded. The odds are decent to make this pick, and their division isn't as good as the NFC East, which will help them get a better record than the Eagles and home-field advantage. That matters."
- Cody Benjamin's bet: Eagles (+750). "Growing up with the Eagles, rarely have I ever been more sure about anything related to the team than the fact Jalen Hurts is wired to will his team to improbable heights. It helps that he's still got an all-star supporting cast. The post-NFC-title hiccups will be there, and the division is tough. But if you're gonna make a chalk bet, why not?"
- Will Brinson's bet: Bills (+900). "The Bills are being slept on this season and I'm not having it. Josh Allen is my MVP pick and by the end of Week 1 all that nonsense about Stefon Diggs from this offseason will look like a silly notion. Sean McDermott should have a chip on his shoulder as well with people questioning what the defense will look like without Leslie Frazier. This team is deep and talented and has won the second-most games in the NFL over the last three years. They're due to break through."
- Jared Dubin's bet: Chiefs (+500) "I'm getting 5-to-1 odds for a team that has Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid? I'll take it, thank you very much."
- Breech's bet: Bengals (+1000). As the resident Bengals homer here at CBSSports.com, I am tempted to pick the Bengals to win the Super Bowl every year, but I never actually do it because I don't want to jinx them, and also, until this year, I didn't think it actually seemed like a realistic pick. This year's team is better than last year's team and it's better than their 2021 team that made it to the Super Bowl. As long as Joe Burrow stays healthy, this feels like it could be Cincinnati's year.
Our biggest long shot bet came from NFL editor Brett Anderson, who actually likes the Browns as a dark horse to win it all.
- Anderson's bet: Browns (+3500). "A preseason Super Bowl bet needs long odds, and what better long shot than a team that's loaded with talent on both offense and defense with Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett, Za'Darius Smith ... just to name a few. The biggest question, of course, is Deshaun Watson, but he's played at a very high level in the past. If he can get back to that this year, 35-1 is a bargain."
Remember, I've only listed six of our best bets above. We rounded up a total of 28 best Super Bowl bets and if you want to check out all of them, be sure to click here. Last year, Jared Dubin and Jeff Kerr nailed their Super Bowl best bet, so you might want to pay extra close attention to what they say.
4. Preseason All-NFL Team: Mahomes, McCaffrey headline our roster of 53
We had our NFL writers vote on so many things this week that they're probably going to stop answering my emails because they're just going to assume that I'm asking them to vote on something. Not only did we have them vote on MVP and their favorite pick for the Super Bowl, but we also asked them to vote on a preseason All-NFL team. This is a popular thing to do in college -- you always read about preseason all-conference teams -- so we thought we'd use that idea for the NFL.
Here's a look at our Preseason All-NFL Offense for 2023:
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
RB: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
RB: Nick Chubb, Browns
WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
WR: Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
WR: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
TE: Travis Kelce, Chiefs
OT: Trent Williams, 49ers
OT: Lane Johnson, Eagles
OG: Zack Martin, Cowboys
OG: Joel Bitonio, Browns
C: Jason Kelce, Eagles
If you want to know who else made our 53-man roster, then be sure to click here.
5. 10 wild facts to know about NFL quarterbacks for 2023
The quarterback position generates most of the headlines around the NFL so we thought we'd get them their own section in today's newsletter. Doug Clawson and our CBS Sports research team dug up 10 fascinating facts about this year's crop of starting quarterbacks, and we're going to go over five of them below.
1. This is the first Week 1 without Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees starting since 1997.
2. At 27 years old, Patrick Mahomes has 11 playoff wins, which is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the most among any active QB. He's the youngest QB in NFL history to enter a season as the active QB leader in that category.
3. With Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr changing teams, that leaves Dak Prescott as the NFL's longest-tenured QB with his current team (He's going into his eighth season with the Cowboys). This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that no QB has an active stretch of nine-plus seasons with the same team.
4. With an average age of 27, this is the NFL's youngest group of quarterbacks to start in Week 1 since 1957. That's not a bad thing, though. Sixty-six years ago, there were five Hall of Fame QBs starting in Week 1: Bart Starr, Johnny Unitas, Bobby Layne, Norm Van Brocklin and Y.A. Tittle.
5. Every team in the NFC South has a new Week 1 starting QB compared with last year's season openers. This marks only the second time in NFL history that we've seen that happen (1973 AFC West).
If you want to check out all 10 facts, be sure to click here, and let me just say, you're definitely going to want to click over, if only because you'll be able to stump all your friends by using these facts this weekend.
6. Extra points: Evans doesn't seem happy with Buccaneers
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Evans sets negotiation deadline with Buccaneers. Mike Evans is headed into the final year of his contract and he doesn't seem very happy about the fact that the Bucs haven't given him a new one. As a matter of fact, the Bucs haven't even given him an offer, according to a statement released by Evans' agent. Although a deal could get done, Evans will be cutting off talks on Sept. 9, so the Bucs have eight days to do something. You can read the full details of all the drama here.
- Cooper Kupp suffers a setback, could miss Week 1. The Rams receiver, who was dealing with a hamstring injury, has suffered a setback. It was already going to be a toss-up whether he played in Week 1 and with this setback, it seems unlikely that he'll be on the field for the Rams' opener against the Seahawks. For more details on Kupp's situation, be sure to click here.
- Jamal Adams will miss Week 1. The Seahawks safety definitely won't be on the field for Seattle's Week 1 game against the Rams. Pete Carroll revealed that news on Friday while saying that the Seahawks aren't going to rush Adams back.
- Patriots add two players. The Patriots added a quarterback and a receiver on Thursday. First, they claimed former Panthers QB Matt Corral off waivers. They then followed up that move by signing receiver Jalen Reagor, a 2020 first-round pick by the Eagles who has struggled during his three years in the league.
- Chase Young still not cleared for contact. After missing 14 games last season, the Commanders were hoping to have a healthy Chase Young back this year, but that might not be the case. According to the Athletic, Young suffered a stinger in the preseason and he still hasn't been cleared for contact. If he's not cleared soon, there's a very real chance he could miss Week 1.
- Tyreek Hill won't face discipline from NFL. The Dolphins got some good news on Thursday when the NFL decided that it won't be punishing Hill for allegedly hitting a man at a marina in South Florida back in June. Hill and the man resolved the case in July, and apparently, that was good enough for the league.
- Dolphins hand out huge extension. You don't usually hear too much about fullbacks landing large contracts, but Alec Ingold got one on Thursday. The Dolphins fullback landed a three-year, $17.2 million extension with Miami, which will make him the highest-paid fullback in the AFC.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. placed on IR. If you're wondering which Dolphins running back you should draft for fantasy purposes, the answer is not Jeff Wilson Jr., who was placed on IR this week. The move means that Wilson will miss at least the first four games. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Wilson had been dealing with a midsection injury and was unable to protect himself on the field.
