The NHL season has reached the point where the playoff field is starting to take shape.
Most of the 16 spots should be pretty secure, and for the teams that are on the bubble it is time to start picking up wins and keeping an eye on the out of town scoreboard.
At this point, it's probably safe to say that there are realistically only two playoff spots up for grabs, one in each conference, and that only four (and at most, five) teams have a realistic shot to get them.
One way I like to look at the playoff race (and to see who still has a realistic shot to get in) is to see the record potential playoff teams will need to reach the likely point total that guarantees a playoff spot. When you look at it like that, this year's playoff race looks to be pretty clear. So let's take a look at the playoff races, which teams should be comfortable with their spot, which teams are completely out of it, and which teams still have a chance to get in.
Eastern Conference
In the East, the second wild card spot (held by Pittsburgh as of Thursday) is currently on track to finish with 95 points in the standings. Historically speaking, teams that reach that reach 95 points almost always end up qualifying for the playoffs. Since 2005-06 only four teams have ever finished with that many points and not made the playoffs (the 2015-16 Boston Bruins missed on a tiebreaker, while the 2015-16 Los Angeles Kings missed by four points. The 2010-11 Dallas Stars missed by two points while the 2006-07 Colorado Avalanche missed by one).
If you get to that level, you are probably getting in. And that will probably be true in the Eastern Conference again this season.
Who should be in: Barring an incredible meltdown down the stretch from one of these teams, the Washington Capitals, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Rangers, New York Islanders and Boston Bruins should probably feel pretty secure in their playoff spots right now. Detroit is probably right there with them as well.
Who is out: Columbus Blue Jackets, Buffalo Sabres, Toronto Maple Leafs. Your season is over.
What about the rest: The "who is out" section should probably be expanded a little bit because it would probably take an 2015 Ottawa Senators kind of run to get a bunch of these teams even back into contention. Even thought that is a huge longshot (let's be honest, what the Senators did a year ago was a total fluke from a comeback perspective) that possibility at least still exists for a handful of teams.
So here is what the remaining bubble teams need to do get that remaining playoff spot in the East, which, again, is probably going to require to reach 95 points.
(All point totals as of March 3, 2016)
| Eastern Conference playoff race | |||
| Team | Games Remaining | Points needed for 95 | Record needed |
| Detroit Red Wings | 18 | 20 | 10-8-0 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 20 | 23 | 11-8-1 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 20 | 26 | 13-7-0 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 17 | 27 | 13-3-1 |
| New Jersey Devils | 18 | 28 | 14-4-0 |
| Ottawa Senators | 18 | 28 | 14-4-0 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 18 | 29 | 14-3-1 |
Detroit is right on the line between "in" and "bubble," and given what Carolina, New Jersey, Ottawa and Montreal need to do the rest of the way it is pretty much a two-team race at this point between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia for the second wild card spot. That has the potential to be complete and total chaos given the history those teams have.
Also worth mentioning: Pittsburgh and Philadelphia play three more times this season, including on the final day of the regular season in Philadelphia. They also play pretty similar schedules in terms of strength of opponent the rest of the way.
You might be asking yourself while the Red Wings are still considered on the bubble while the Islanders, a team that has the same point total as Detroit, is not. It is actually very simple. Even though they have the exact same point total as of Thursday, the Islanders have reached that level in three fewer games. Those three games in hand are still a pretty big deal and means they still have 21 games to get those 20 points. They should be able to do that as even playing slightly below .500 the rest of the way (10-11-0) gets them there.
Western Conference
The target point total in the West is significantly lower than it is in the East because there is a pretty big gap between the top-tier teams and the second-and third-tier teams, especially when it comes to the Pacific Division.
As of Thursday the second wild card team in the West, Minnesota, is only pace for 87 points, which would be one of the lowest point totals ever for a playoff team since the NHL added the overtime/shootout point.
The most amazing thing about that? Even though the target for a playoff spot in the West is so low, there are still really only two teams fighting for that second wild card spot.
Who should be in: The Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, and Nashville Predators should be pretty secure at this point with all of them holding at least a seven-point lead over the first non-playoff team.
Who is out: Winnipeg Jets, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers.
What about the rest: Like the East, there are probably a few teams that still have a really tiny chance, but it is probably only a two team race between the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche.
| Western Conference Playoff Race | |||
| Team | Games Remaining | Points needed for 87 | Record needed |
| Minnesota Wild | 18 | 19 | 9-8-1 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 17 | 19 | 9-7-1 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 20 | 27 | 13-6-1 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 19 | 27 | 13-5-1 |
Arizona is going in the complete wrong direction at this point and is probably closer to the "teams that are out" than the "teams still fighting for a playoff spot." Vancouver didn't trade anybody away before the trade deadline, but this team just isn't very good and is going to need to go on quite a run to catch either Minnesota or Colorado. And that is assuming those two teams keep playing at their current pace. If one of them goes on any kind of a winning streak, it is going to be completely over for them.
Vancouver and Arizona really don't even have a chance to catch any of the Pacific Division teams for one of the top three spots in the division because they trail them by even more points (they are 14 back of San Jose for the third spot in the division). It is wild card or bust. And that just does not seem likely given what they need to do.
Minnesota and Colorado still have one more head-to-head game this season, facing off in Colorado on March 26.
