#Pac12AfterDark strikes again. After playing with fire every week so far this season, No. 5 USC finally got burned at No. 16 Washington State in a 30-27 loss. The upset of the Trojans undoubtedly shakes up my College Football Playoff and New Year's Six projections.
USC drops out of the CFP and gets replaced by Ohio State. The Buckeyes are projected to be the Big Ten champion -- Penn State still has to go to Columbus, Ohio -- and the new No. 4 playoff seed. Oklahoma, which won at Ohio State earlier this season, is now projected to be the No. 3 seed.
2018 College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | 8 p.m. | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | 5 p.m. | Semifinal | (2) Clemson vs. (3) Oklahoma |
Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | 8:45 p.m. | Semifinal | (1) Alabama vs. (4) Ohio State |
The Trojans are still the pick to win the Pac-12 and stay in the New Year's Six projections, but now they will play in the Fiesta Bowl against Group of Five representative San Diego State. Washington moves over to the Cotton Bowl against TCU, Wisconsin gets shifted to Ohio State's former spot in the Orange Bowl to take on Louisville, and Penn State is slotted to play Georgia in the Peach Bowl.
Selection committee bowl games
| Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Peach | 12:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Georgia vs. Penn State |
Dec. 30 | Fiesta | 4 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | USC vs. San Diego State |
Dec. 30 | Orange | 8 p.m. | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND | Louisville vs. Wisconsin |
Dec. 29 | Cotton | 8:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | TCU vs. Washington |
Florida State picked up an enormous win, its first of the season, at Wake Forest this week. The Seminoles are a team that was expected to win the ACC and play in the CFP this year, but the injury to quarterback Deondre Francois has made that no longer a likelihood. Because of that and Hurricane Irma, even qualifying for a bowl is in doubt for the Noles. FSU still needs six wins, but because its game with Louisiana-Monroe was canceled, that means it can have no more than five losses. The Seminoles have two already and games left with Miami, Louisville, Clemson and Florida, the last two of which are on the road. Florida State next hosts Miami in Tallahassee. FSU would be a longshot to qualify at 5-6 via APR.
The Big 12 is still in a position where it will very likely struggle to fill its bowl spots. However, instead of filling their empty places with lower-rated teams from other leagues, I would expect better teams to go there instead. I have the Big 12 missing out on the Cactus and Heart of Dallas Bowls, where the opponents are from the Pac-12 and Big Ten, respectively. In an effort to create better matchups, I have Colorado State taking the spot in the Cactus Bowl and Texas-San Antonio playing in Dallas.
Those two teams represent the Mountain West and Conference USA, which is where the teams with 5-7 records in this projection come from this week. Air Force and North Texas are the two highest-rated teams in the APR that I project to finish with five wins. For the first time this season, there are no Big Ten teams on this list. Also, this is the first time I have projected a need for so few 5-7 teams.
Check out my full slate of bowl projections after Week 5 here.
