Fantasy Football Week 15 Running Back Preview: Waiver wire adds, DFS plays, and more

As we enter into the Fantasy playoffs, you'll hear a lot of "start your studs" or "dance with the girl you brought" or some variance. The point being that if you drafted someone early in drafts and made it to the playoffs, you should keep starting them. But with the way Austin Ekeler has performed over the last month, I would understand if you were hesitant, especially in non-PPR.

Ekeler is coming off his best performance of the last month, a 100-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Broncos. But as bad as the Raiders have been against running backs, the Broncos are a much better matchup. They've allowed 27% more Fantasy points to running backs than the Raiders and they give up more than a yard per carry more to the position. They also just held the Vikings without a touchdown and Easton Stick will draw the start for the Chargers. 

This is all best illustrated by the fact that the Chargers are a field goal underdog to the Raiders on Thursday night, with an implied team total of 15.5. That, combined with Ekeler's rushing inefficiency and loss of rush share last week means that when you look at my projections you won't see Ekeler projected as a top-20 rusher in any format. I the rankings, I'm still willing to boost Ekeler closer to RB15 in full PPR, because Stick will likely target him at a higher rate. Still, he's far from a must-start, especially in non-PPR, where I would start both Lions and both Dolphins backs over him.

• Heath's Week 15 Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE

You can find more in my weekly projections over at SportsLine. Now let's get to the rest of the Week 15 RB Preview:

Week 15 RB Preview

Who's Out

Numbers to Know

Matchups That Matter

Waiver Wire Targets

DFS Plays

Projections

RB Preview

Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 15 at this time. Here's what it means:

Josh Jacobs RB

GB Green Bay • #8
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Zamit White and Ameer Abdullah will split the work if Jacobs is out.

Alexander Mattison RB

LV Las Vegas • #2
Age: 25 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Ty Chandler should be the lead back without Mattison.

RB Preview

Numbers to know

• 22.4% -- De'Von Achane is second on the Dolphins with a 22.4% target share since his return. Both he and Raheem Mostert are must-start RBs.
• 42.7% -- D'Onta Foreman's 42.7% rush success rate ranks seventh in the NFL, four points better than any other Bears running back.
• 2.13 -- D'Andre Swift ranks second amongst running backs, averaging 2.13 yards before contact per rush. His schedule gets easier moving forward as well.
• 84% -- Zack Moss has played at least 84% of the Colts offensive snaps the last two weeks. As bad as he's been, he's a start if Jonathan Taylor remains out.
• 31.5% -- Tyjae Spears' 31.5% avoid rate ranks third amongst running backs with at least 65 rush attempts. He's a flex with Henry and he'd be a league winner if Henry goes down.
• 5.1 -- The Broncos are the only team in the NFL giving up more than five yards per carry. You should start both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery this week.

RB Preview

Matchups that matter

Matchups that Matter

David Montgomery RB

DET Detroit • #5
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs DEN DET -5 O/U 46.5

OPP VS RB 2nd

PROJ PTS 12.6

RB RNK 20th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 770	REC 12	REYDS 106	TD 10	FPTS/G 16

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB

KC Kansas City • #25
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ NE KC -9.5 O/U 37.5

OPP VS RB 25th

PROJ PTS 5.7

RB RNK 33rd

YTD Stats
RUYDS 179	REC 9	REYDS 73	TD 1	FPTS/G 3.4

Ty Chandler RB

MIN Minnesota • #32
Age: 26 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ CIN CIN -3.5 O/U 39

OPP VS RB 13th

PROJ PTS 7.5

RB RNK 23rd

YTD Stats
RUYDS 203	REC 13	REYDS 90	TD 1	FPTS/G 3.7

James Conner RB

ARI Arizona • #6
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs SF SF -13.5 O/U 48

OPP VS RB 4th

PROJ PTS 9.8

RB RNK 24th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 631	REC 14	REYDS 36	TD 4	FPTS/G 11.6

RB Preview

Waiver Wire Targets

Week 15 Adds (RB Preview)

D'Onta Foreman RB

CLE Cleveland • #21
Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ CLE CLE -3 O/U 37.5

OPP VS RB 3rd

RB RNK 35th

ROSTERED 57%

YTD Stats
RUYDS 431	REC 11	REYDS 77	TD 5	FPTS/G 11.5

Ty Chandler and Zamir White could have more upside than Foreman if the starters on their teams are officially ruled out, but Foreman doesn't need an injury. He led the team with 13 touches and 72 yards from scrimmage in Week 14 and has even caught two passes in two of his last three games. He's a nice flex this week with top 20 upside.

Ty Chandler RB

MIN Minnesota • #32
Age: 26 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ CIN CIN -3.5 O/U 39

OPP VS RB 32nd

RB RNK 23rd

ROSTERED 45%

YTD Stats
RUYDS 203	REC 13	REYDS 90	TD 1	FPTS/G 3.7

Chandler had 15 touches against the Raiders in Week 14 and them into 42 yards and 7.2 PPR Fantasy points. This week he has another good matchup against a poor Bengals defense, but I don't have a high degree of confidence that he'll be more efficient or see that many more touches. View Chandler as a borderline No. 2 running back if Mattison is out, but recognize that as of Tuesday Mattison has not been ruled out so Chandler has a very low floor.

Zamir White RB

LV Las Vegas • #35
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs LAC LV -3 O/U 34

OPP VS RB 11th

RB RNK 41st

ROSTERED 5%

YTD Stats
RUYDS 54	REC 6	REYDS 38	TD 0	FPTS/G 1

White has been significantly underrostered due to the potential of a Jacobs injury and now it has happened. Like Mattison, Jacobs has not been ruled out, but it's a short week so his odds aren't great. Expect White to dominate early downs but Ameer Abdullah will likely do more in the passing game. View White as flex, just behind Foreman, if Jacobs is out.

RB Preview

DFS Plays

Top DFS Play

Ezekiel Elliott RB

DAL Dallas • #15
Age: 28 • Experience: 9 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs KC KC -9.5 O/U 37.5

OPP VS RB 14th

PROJ PTS 10.5

RB RNK 8th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 497	REC 31	REYDS 226	TD 3	FPTS/G 9.2

They simply could not raise Ezekiel Elliott's price fast enough. Elliott is in line for 20-plus touches and a handful of targets against a Chiefs defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry and has been gashed by running backs over the past month. Elliott is the free space on the main slate this week.

Contrarian DFS Play

Breece Hall RB

NYJ N.Y. Jets • #20
Age: 22 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ MIA MIA -9 O/U 39.5

OPP VS RB 24th

PROJ PTS 13.1

RB RNK 9th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 625	REC 52	REYDS 435	TD 5	FPTS/G 14.5

Hall paid off in a big way in this spot last week, finishing as the No. 1 running back on the main slate. I'm not sure that will impact his roster rate as he's on the road as an enormous underdog in Week 15. I'm going right back to him. In fact, with Hall's role in the passing game, a negative game script may actually be better for him. I would be slightly less enthused about this play if Tyreek Hill is out.

RB Preview

Heath's Projections

My full set of Week 15 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 14. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.