As we enter into the Fantasy playoffs, you'll hear a lot of "start your studs" or "dance with the girl you brought" or some variance. The point being that if you drafted someone early in drafts and made it to the playoffs, you should keep starting them. But with the way Austin Ekeler has performed over the last month, I would understand if you were hesitant, especially in non-PPR.
Ekeler is coming off his best performance of the last month, a 100-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Broncos. But as bad as the Raiders have been against running backs, the Broncos are a much better matchup. They've allowed 27% more Fantasy points to running backs than the Raiders and they give up more than a yard per carry more to the position. They also just held the Vikings without a touchdown and Easton Stick will draw the start for the Chargers.
This is all best illustrated by the fact that the Chargers are a field goal underdog to the Raiders on Thursday night, with an implied team total of 15.5. That, combined with Ekeler's rushing inefficiency and loss of rush share last week means that when you look at my projections you won't see Ekeler projected as a top-20 rusher in any format. I the rankings, I'm still willing to boost Ekeler closer to RB15 in full PPR, because Stick will likely target him at a higher rate. Still, he's far from a must-start, especially in non-PPR, where I would start both Lions and both Dolphins backs over him.
Ty Chandler should be the lead back without Mattison.
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Numbers to know
22.4% -- De'Von Achane is second on the Dolphins with a 22.4% target share since his return. Both he and Raheem Mostert are must-start RBs.
42.7% -- D'Onta Foreman's 42.7% rush success rate ranks seventh in the NFL, four points better than any other Bears running back.
2.13 -- D'Andre Swift ranks second amongst running backs, averaging 2.13 yards before contact per rush. His schedule gets easier moving forward as well.
84% -- Zack Moss has played at least 84% of the Colts offensive snaps the last two weeks. As bad as he's been, he's a start if Jonathan Taylor remains out.
31.5% -- Tyjae Spears' 31.5% avoid rate ranks third amongst running backs with at least 65 rush attempts. He's a flex with Henry and he'd be a league winner if Henry goes down.
5.1 -- The Broncos are the only team in the NFL giving up more than five yards per carry. You should start both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery this week.
Ty Chandler and Zamir White could have more upside than Foreman if the starters on their teams are officially ruled out, but Foreman doesn't need an injury. He led the team with 13 touches and 72 yards from scrimmage in Week 14 and has even caught two passes in two of his last three games. He's a nice flex this week with top 20 upside.
Chandler had 15 touches against the Raiders in Week 14 and them into 42 yards and 7.2 PPR Fantasy points. This week he has another good matchup against a poor Bengals defense, but I don't have a high degree of confidence that he'll be more efficient or see that many more touches. View Chandler as a borderline No. 2 running back if Mattison is out, but recognize that as of Tuesday Mattison has not been ruled out so Chandler has a very low floor.
White has been significantly underrostered due to the potential of a Jacobs injury and now it has happened. Like Mattison, Jacobs has not been ruled out, but it's a short week so his odds aren't great. Expect White to dominate early downs but Ameer Abdullah will likely do more in the passing game. View White as flex, just behind Foreman, if Jacobs is out.
They simply could not raise Ezekiel Elliott's price fast enough. Elliott is in line for 20-plus touches and a handful of targets against a Chiefs defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry and has been gashed by running backs over the past month. Elliott is the free space on the main slate this week.
Hall paid off in a big way in this spot last week, finishing as the No. 1 running back on the main slate. I'm not sure that will impact his roster rate as he's on the road as an enormous underdog in Week 15. I'm going right back to him. In fact, with Hall's role in the passing game, a negative game script may actually be better for him. I would be slightly less enthused about this play if Tyreek Hill is out.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 15 Fantasy Footballprojections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 14. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
