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USATSI

Good Friday to you, it's Heath Cummings here with another Dynasty Download. If you missed last week, I'll be taking over the FFT Newsletter on Fridays to bring you a Dynasty Fantasy Football slant on the latest news, as well as a peek at the Dynasty content we've recently produced, and have on the way. 

I hope you're as excited about this development as I am.

This week we have a new mock draft to review, some exciting new prospect profiles, and me answering your Dynasty questions at the bottom of the newsletter. Oh yeah, and Tyreek Hill is talking about retirement. 

I'd like it if I could answer your questions in this space regularly, and that's going to require you all coming up with compelling questions every week. I'm confident you won't let me down.

Dynasty Superflex Rookie-Only Draft

This past week we did a two-round Superflex rookie-only draft. You can see the full results here, and you can watch the most recent FFT Dynasty show where we broke down the draft with Scott Fish here. 

We don't have enough of a consensus for there to be too many surprising things to come out of this mock. It started with Bijan Robinson, as the vast majority of rookie drafts will in 2023, and then came the top three quarterbacks, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Unless something weird happens with Will Levis in the NFL Draft, I would expect this to be the consensus top six in Superflex drafts. It's also a pretty big tier break for me.

There is a good chance one or two players get bumped up in the consensus rankings due to draft capital and/or landing spot, but I'd feel pretty good about selling pick nine through 12 in 2023 rookie drafts for a 2024 first, even if that team is a contender. I wouldn't feel too bad about sending pick seven or eight for a 2024 first either. 

Another option is to move down to the second round, especially if you're a running back needy team. Zach Evans, Devon Achane, Tyjae Spears, and Roschon Johnson all possess the kind of traits that could lead to early success in the NFL if they land in the right spot. 

Speaking of Spears, Dan Schneier just wrote him up in our prospect profile series. Schneier believes Spears is more than the change-of-pace label that has landed on him. 

Coming soon

Next week we'll begin our evaluation of the 2023 NFL Draft in earnest on the FFT Dynasty YouTube show. Matt Waldman of Rookie Scouting Portfolio will join Dan Schneier and me as we break down the 2023 quarterback and tight end class. In fairness, the tight ends aren't going to get a lot of time here. If history is any indication, you'll get a couple of years to evaluate them in the NFL before they become full-time Fantasy starters. That's one of the reasons I'm moving away from targeting tight ends in the first two rounds of rookie drafts. 

Please tune in to the Fantasy Football Today YouTube page at 11 AM ET to hear how Waldman breaks down this quarterback class, and whether he agrees with my tight end take.

Next week I'll also unveil my pre-draft top-25 rookies for non-PPR, PPR, Superflex, and tight end premium leagues. There will be tiers specifically for the one-QB PPR format (it's still the most common; sorry, Superflexers). If 25 doesn't seem like enough, I'll have a top 40 after the NFL Draft. But for those guys outside the first two rounds of rookie drafts, landing spot and draft capital has an outsized impact.

Remember, you can find all of these things, as well as all of our 2023 Dynasty content, on our Dynasty Landing Page, which was just updated on Thursday.

In other news

  • Tyreek Hill was on the radio in Kansas City this past week and indicated he only plans to play through the 2025 season. Go make an offer to the Tyreek Hill Fantasy manager in your league right now. Make sure they're aware of this news. It does nothing to impact my Dynasty ranking of Hill. For one thing, who knows how he'll feel in three years? More importantly, Hill is a 29-year-old wide receiver. You shouldn't expect much past the next three years anyway. He's my No. 9 WR in Dynasty and a buy at that cost for contenders.
  • The Jets signed Tim Boyle. They now have Aaron Rodgers' former offensive coordinator, No. 1 wide receiver, and backup quarterback. They do not yet have Rodgers himself, and there's been some speculation that other teams may start checking in with the Packers. Hopefully this will all be figured out in the next three weeks, if only because there's not much left to say about it.
  • Austin Ekeler admitted he may have to play for the Chargers on his current deal. It's a very good sign for his Fantasy value that he's hinting at this already. For one thing, it's unlikely there's a better place for him than Los Angeles. But also, this reduces whatever limited chance there was for a holdout. Ekeler is currently my RB8, but he's also a clear sell for anyone who doesn't have a top-four roster in Dynasty. He'll turn 28 in May.
  • The Patriots have reportedly been shopping Mac Jones this offseason. Jones' lone value at this point is that he could be a QB2 who probably won't get benched. Even that appears to be in doubt now. There aren't a lot of guys who got on the wrong side of Bill Belichick and then worked things out. Watch the Patriots in the NFL Draft, and maybe in the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes.
  • Todd Bowles said he is looking for Rachaad White to become a three-down back. I'm not putting too much into this until after the NFL Draft, but at this point the only significant addition the Buccaneers have made to replace Leonard Fournette is Chase Edmonds. If that remains the case, White's redraft value will soar. White ranks as RB19 for me in Dynasty right now, but he will rise if Tampa Bay doesn't add a back on Day 1 or Day 2.

Mailbag

I still believe Jackson is going to play for the Ravens, but his long-term future there is absolutely in doubt. It's a bigger impact on Mark Andrews than J.K. Dobbins, in fact I'm not even sure whether it's better or worse for Dobbins.

Running quarterbacks are a boon to a running back's efficiency, but Jackson (and Justin Fields) take it too far. When the quarterback is taking 30% of the team's rush attempts, the increased efficiency is offset by the lack of carries available. That being said, if Jackson left and the Ravens became a bad offense, that would negatively impact everyone. I don't believe I would downgrade Dobbins if Jackson left tomorrow, but there's certainly more downside than upside.

For Andrews, it would definitely be a downgrade, especially if the Ravens don't come up with a better backup plan than Tyler Huntley. Andrews is turning 28 in September, which isn't old, but it's old enough that one year has a bigger impact on his Dynasty value than it would for a 25-year-old. Andrews would still be a top-five Dynasty tight end if the Ravens don't have a legitimate starter this year, but he'd no longer be No. 1.

The toughest part of this question may be figuring out the current full price. My trade chart is designed to tell you how I value players. The guys over at Dynasty Trade Calculator pursue the consensus cost, so I'll use their cost to answer this.

The first one that stands out is Josh Jacobs at RB8. He's my RB3 in Dynasty. The fact that he gets another year in Las Vegas with a feature workload and is still just 25 years old, puts him in the discussion for RB1 in redraft and makes him an easy top-five back in Dynasty. He'll fall to RB4 for me when Bijan Robinson arrives, but that's still well ahead of his cost.

My second choice would be Miles Sanders, one of my biggest winners from free agency. I expect Carolina to have a prolific run offense and his former running backs coach, Duce Staley brought him in. His contract all but guarantees him two years as a starter and gives him a very good chance at a third season. His consensus cost is RB24 and I value him as a top 20 running back.

Looking cheaper, I'd target Samaje Perine. Yes, he's probably a one-year rental, but there's a real chance he's a Fantasy starter all season due to Javonte Williams' knee injury. At the worst, I'd expect a first half starter and a second half flex. Perine's current value (RB58) is well behind that. Unless the Broncos add a significant back in the draft, Perine should be a top 40 back in Dynasty.

I'm not sure you can have too many QBs in a Superflex league. Especially when one of them is Daniel Jones and one of them hasn't yet agreed to play this year for his current team. I would hold Justin Herbert, Jackson, Jones, and Baker Mayfield. I would try to deal Mike White to the Tua Tagovailoa manager as part of a deal to improve my team somewhere else. I would be tempted to shop Jones as well. He has some helium right now, and I would definitely shop Mayfield if he wins the job officially over Kyle Trask. 

As for the 1.04, I would likely take Smith-Njigba in this situation, unless I can sell high on Jones now. I'd be open to trading down if someone is desperate enough to overpay for a quarterback.