How you feel about Isaiah Spiller as a prospect may just be determined by how heavily you weigh college production versus combine and pro day measurements. As a player, Spiller was prolific. He produced more than 3,500 yards from scrimmage across three seasons at Texas A&M. He also caught 74 passes and scored 26 touchdowns in the process. That kind of production, in the SEC, from a kid who won't even be legally old enough to drink until August, is very special.
When it comes to athletic testing, Spiller has disappointed. He did very little at the Combine, and didn't look particularly good doing it. Then he ran a 4.64 at his pro day which looks even worse considering his BMI measured below average for an NFL running back. Below-average speed combined with below-average girth is not an inspiring combination from a projection standpoint.
So where does that leave Spiller as a draft prospect? Somewhere in the middle. He's definitely behind Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker right now, but there's not another serious contender for RB3 in this class unless something unexpected happens during the NFL Draft.
Age as of Week 1: 21 | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 217 | 40 time: 4.64
Comparable body-type to: Kenyan Drake
Best Fantasy fits
Houston Texans - The Texans are one of the few teams with a clear opening for a three-down back. Spiller should easily pass Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead on the depth chart on an offense that should be improved from a year ago. Running backs in Pep Hamilton's system averaged 111 targets per year from 2013-2015.
Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons have holes just about everywhere and like the Texans don't have a back that should stand in Spiller's way for long. Last year the team ranked second in the NFL with a 26% running back target rate and drafting Spiller could signal they plan on using Cordarrelle Patterson more as a wide receiver than a running back. Arthur Smith's run-game is heavy on zone blocking schemes, which is where Spiller excels.
Arizona Cardinals - Outside of the teams that could give Spiller a big workload early on, the Cardinals may be a sneaky good fit. Spiller would likely start the season in Chase Edmonds' role from last year, but James Conner has had a lot of injuries over the past three seasons. Few offenses have produced as many running back Fantasy points over the past three seasons as the Cardinals.
Dynasty outlook
Assuming Spiller is a Day 2 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, he'll likely enter my Dynasty rankings around RB20 behind guys like Elijah Mitchell and Travis Etienne but ahead of A.J. Dillon and James Robinson. He'd had top-12 upside if he could earn a three-down role in his rookie season and he has the potential to be a borderline No. 1 back in PPR for the next five to seven years. If Spiller falls to Day 3 like Michael Carter did last year, the landing spot will determine whether he's a low-end No. 2 back for Dynasty purposes or closer to No. 30 at his position.
Scouting report
Strengths
- His proven skills in the passing game give him three-down upside, which gives him top-12 upside.
- His acceleration on tape looks better than his measurables suggest. There is some burst there when the situation calls for it.
- Spiller's footwork is borderline elite, he's very light on his feet.
- His frame suggests that his low BMI could be solved in his first couple of years in the league.
- His age gives you hope for further growth, and also a longer window if he does hit. Spiller is three years and five months younger than Najee Harris.
Concerns
- While Spiller is a willing blocker, he has much to improve on in that area if he's actually going to play three downs in the NFL.
- His lack of top-end speed could prevent him from consistently making big plays in the NFL.
- If he does add weight to his frame he'll have to do so without sacrificing speed, because he doesn't have any to give up.
- He can get a little greedy dancing looking for the big play instead of taking the short gain.
Stats breakdown
G | ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | |
2021 | 12 | 179 | 1,011 | 5.6 | 6 | 25 | 203 | 7.6 | 1 |
2020 | 10 | 188 | 1,036 | 5.4 | 9 | 20 | 193 | 9.7 | 0 |
2019 | 13 | 174 | 946 | 5.5 | 10 | 29 | 189 | 7.0 | 0 |
Total | 35 | 541 | 2,993 | 5.5 | 25 | 74 | 585 | 7.9 | 1 |
Advanced stats to know
- 9.7% - Spiller earned nearly 10% of his team's targets in his college career. That's very good for a college running back.
- 113.1 - Spiller's 113.1 Burst Score on playerprofiler ranks in the 24th percentile of NFL running backs.
NFL comparison
The upside comp is easy to see on film and in his description. When things go right, prime Le'Veon Bell looks like it is well within Spiller's range of outcomes. He has the same light feet and a similar build. As we saw, when Bell lost one step, he wasn't close to the same back. A more fair comp for the first couple of years might be Antonio Gibson. Like Gibson, there's enough to clean up with Spiller that a team may want to limit how they use him early in his career.
