Each week this season, I'll go through some tournament strategies for that week's slate, then give out some picks I like at each position. Let's start this week's article by discussing some strategies to consider for tournament lineups in Week 8.
Week 8 tournament strategy session
We're to the point of the season where injury monitoring is key and drives a huge portion of the slate. This week, we're potentially looking at Latavius Murray, Chase Edmonds and Ty Johnson as featured backs at depressed DFS salaries. Matt Ryan and Drew Brees could both play, or possibly miss. Keenan Allen has become a major question mark after a hamstring injury that would change the outlooks for Mike Williams and Hunter Henry, even in a tough matchup with Chicago.
This list goes on. And while it can be overwhelming to consider all the possible scenarios where players are in or out and what that would mean for the slate, it's an important step to take in the process. If all three of Murray, Edmonds and Johnson are in play, who would you take? If Allen does get scratched, where would you rank Henry among tight ends and would you consider Williams at $4000 on DraftKings or $5700 on FanDuel.
And how will ownership move for these players, and which leverage plays will open or close based on that?
There are plenty of DFS players who will wait until Sunday to make any final decisions. Others will get lineups in using their best assumptions, then tweak as necessary Sunday morning. Simply considering multiple scenarios and figuring out how you want to play the slate in different circumstances can give a solid head start on those last-minute decisions.
For example, if Kamara does sit, Murray becomes one of my favorite plays on the slate. His matchup with Arizona is cake, and we learned last week that he's a workhorse with Kamara out.
Meanwhile, while Ty Johnson's matchup is strong, his situation is far more opaque. He could absolutely follow Edmonds' footsteps and have a big game against the Giants, but we can't be as sure of Johnson's role. The Lions could go more pass-heavy, and J.D. McKissic could limit Johnson to more of a 60/40 split, even after we saw Johnson double up McKissic in touches after Kerryon Johnson left early in Week 7.
Then there's Edmonds, who last week played a 94% snap share, an absolutely huge role for any running back. We know the Cardinals will play fast, and we can expect he'll be involved in the passing game even if they trail, so even in a bad matchup his price makes him a very appealing play. Considering salary, Ty Johnson is probably a better play than Edmonds if David Johnson is out, but I'd project Edmonds for a higher raw point total in that scenario.
But all of this is known information, and ownership will follow. If Kamara plays, which is looking like a real possibility, both Edmonds and Johnson will carry very high ownership. There are cases to be made to fade both in some tournament lineups — Johnson because of the uncertainty, Edmonds because of a lofty price tag plus more difficult matchup. But a full fade of either would be aggressive.
If Kamara doesn't play, expect Murray to carry plenty of ownership, but he's a guy I'd have a hard time getting away from in that situation. Johnson, in that scenario, would be the lowest-owned of the three, in my estimation, and that would make him a little more appealing as a play.
And yet, this slate is not without other options, and one thing the ownership centering around these three could do is leave those other plays under-owned. With a ton of reasonably-priced wide receivers with strong opportunity shares, there are ways to build out high-upside lineups that leave these names out as a contrarian way to attack the slate.
It's a lot to consider, and weighing your exposures and decisions before Sunday morning's final injury reports in each eventuality is an obvious but still often overlooked way to ensure you're not panic-editing lineups at the last minute.
Let's get to the player picks for this week.
Top players
Position
You have to love Watson's setup against Oakland, even without primary deep threat Will Fuller. Kenny Stills filled in admirably last week and is fully capable of filling that role in the offense, which means Watson should be able to continue performing at a high level. Both Stills and DeAndre Hopkins make for great stacks, and I like running it back with Tyrell Williams in the hopes Oakland can make this a high-scoring affair. Williams should go a bit overlooked this week in his return from a multi-week injury, but the Texans are a solid matchup for him.
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One reason Ty Johnson could underperform would be if the Lions decide to throw more. Stafford's been pushing the ball downfield far more this season, and sits at or near the top of the league in most downfield volume categories. That has elevated his ceiling in a way we didn't see for several years of throwing underneath to guys like Golden Tate and Theo Riddick. The matchup with the Giants is ripe for downfield passing, and Kenny Golladay is primed for a bounce-back performance after Marvin Jones took all the headlines last week.
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There are only six teams on the Week 8 slate with implied team totals over 25, and I'm mostly picking my quarterbacks from among that group of teams that includes both Watson and Stafford above, plus Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, whoever starts for the Saints and Brady. Brady's the pick here as potentially the lowest-owned option in that sextet, but with a strong ceiling if the Browns can be at all competitive and a cheap stacking partner in Phillip Dorsett.
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This one's really simple. The Panthers are in a tough spot on the road in San Francisco against an elite defense. But because of all the cheaper running back options, McCaffrey's going to come in underowned relative to his ceiling. He's far and away the biggest Fantasy star of the 2019 season who can rack up Fantasy points in numerous ways, and playing him at ownership in the teens instead of the twenties is an opportunity that doesn't come around often.
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If you follow any of my other content, you know I'm on record as saying Bell is a strong rest-of-season option. Jacksonville has been fairly forgiving to running backs this year, and while they aren't as great of a matchup as some of Bell's upcoming tilts, the time to get Bell at low ownership is now, coming off the Jets' debacle in New England last week. Bell's snap share has been massive all year, his receiving role is elite and overlooked a bit by recent poor production there and his scoring potential is vastly improved with Sam Darnold at quarterback, even if Darnold looked lost last week.
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I discussed Murray above, but I just want to reiterate that if Kamara is out, he's one of my favorite plays on the slate, regardless of who is at quarterback. Running back ownership will be concentrated this week, and two other projected high-owned plays I like are Leonard Fournette and Chris Carson, but a combination of Murray and one or both of the two more contrarian options above (McCaffrey and Bell) is a solid risk/reward tournament core.
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There are a lot of mid-priced wide receivers with projectable volume that make it possible to get up to some of the higher-priced running backs if you do want to fade the injury replacements, and Courtland Sutton is among my favorite. With Emmanuel Sanders no longer with Denver, DaeSean Hamilton could carry higher ownership as a very cheap option, but I love Sutton's potential to beat a Colts' secondary that just gave up a big day to DeAndre Hopkins last week. Sure, Sutton is not on Hopkins' level, but the emerging star isn't as far off as you'd think.
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I'm a sucker for underappreciated No. 1s in bad offenses, as my refusal to go away from Tyler Boyd in recent weeks has probably indicated. But Allen Robinson is seeing consistent volume and turning in consistent production; the only thing holding him back from even bigger lines has been quarterback play. A 150-yard day is looming, and all it would take is one big play on top of what Robinson's been doing week in and week out.
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Stills will carry plenty of ownership and there is always a case to fade boom-or-bust type downfield options in those situations, but the matchup is sweet and the air yards will be there in Will Fuller's role. Last week, when Fuller went down after just three snaps, Stills played a 94% snap share and went over 100 yards on just four catches. That's big upside at his price tag.
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With tight ends like Darren Waller and Austin Hooper making cases to join the top tier, Kittle could be a little forgotten in terms of ownership. He's coming off a down game in a mud fest in Washington, but has otherwise posted consistent production without yet hitting his ceiling.
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Henry's at a better price on DraftKings, but he's usable on both sites if Keenan Allen misses the game. Yes, the Bears present a challenging matchup, but they are a little worse against tight ends than wide receivers, and Henry's recent volume has been absurd anyway. With 17 targets and nearly 200 yards over the past two weeks, Henry is fully taking over the Antonio Gates role Philip Rivers has always loved to target.
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