2018 MLB win totals, predictions: Proven computer model says Mets are overrated

As MLB teams gear up for Opening Day, baseball bettors are zeroing in on regular-season win totals. The win totals, available at most sports books, range from the lofty -- 97.5 for the World Series-champion Astros and 96.5 for the NL-champion Dodgers -- to the 64.5 assigned to the lowly Marlins.

Before you bet over or under on any team, you have to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking. This model simulated the entire season 10,000 times and found five MLB teams whose Vegas win totals are way off.

This same model just crushed the NFL and college basketball.

It would have won at least 95 percent of CBS Sports' straight-up NFL office pool leagues the past two years and returned a whopping $6,529 profit to $100 bettors who played its top-rated college hoops picks last season.

We can tell you the model believes the Mets are drastically overrated. With the over-under set at 82.5 wins, the model strongly recommends the under, projecting 77.0 wins.

The Mets responded to last year's 70-92 disaster with some shrewd moves, adding Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak. New manager Mickey Callaway, the former Indians pitching coach, inherits a rotation full of big names.

But names don't win games, especially if they're hurt. Mets starters posted a 5.14 ERA last season. Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz -- this year's Opening Day rotation -- have never all been healthy at the same time.

Optimism fills the air now, but it's only a matter of time before the rotation breaks down again, according to the model.

The model also generated huge disparities on four other teams, including the Dodgers. After winning an MLB-best 104 games and falling just shy of a World Series title, can L.A. grind out at least 97 wins this season?

The Dodgers seem poised to do so. Their lineup features six position players age 27 or younger. And it's hard to find a weakness in their roster.

But they also compete in what should be MLB's toughest division. The Giants landed Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, while the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Padres were very aggressive this offseason.

The model knows how big of an impact those moves will make.

So which teams should you bet over and which should you go under on? Visit SportsLine now to get the five best season win total bets, plus see every team's projected record, all from an advanced computer model that keeps crushing its picks.

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