All across Florida and Arizona, spring training is now well underway. Grapefruit League and Cactus League games will begin in just a few days, meaning real live baseball will soon be on your television or mobile device. Thank goodness for that. This offseason felt like an eternity.
As always, each team came into spring training this year with some questions in need of an answer. Usually itâs a roster spot or three, or a player coming back from injury, things like that. The best and most fortunate teams have fewer questions in camp.
We ran through the American League yesterday, and now itâs time to take a look at one burning question for each National League team right now, with Opening Day roughly six weeks away.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Burning Question: Can their pitching staff be salvaged?
Shelby Miller was an unmitigated disaster in 2016. Robbie Ray struck out 218 batters in 174 1/3 innings and still had a 4.90 ERA (89 ERA+). Patrick Corbin hasnât been the same since Tommy John surgery three years ago. Youngsters Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley are struggling to find their way at the big-league level. Heck, not even the great Zack Greinke came close to matching expectations last year.
The D-Backs have an awful lot of talent in their rotation -- they added Taijuan Walker, another young starter who has been up-and-down in the majors, in the offseason -- but the production was very much below average in 2016. Was it a fluke? Or is there a systematic problem somewhere in the organization? Arizona is under new leadership after hiring general manager Mike Hazen away from the Red Sox, and his top priority will be getting those talented arms to live up to their potential.
Atlanta Braves
Burning Question: How will SunTrust Park play?
After two decades at Turner Field, the Braves are relocating to brand new SunTrust Park this season. Turner Field skewed slightly in favor of pitchers, but was generally a neutral park. The park factors at Baseball-Reference.com say the ballpark suppressed runs to 99 percent of the league average in 2016. So yeah, close to neutral.
Is that how SunTrust Park will play? Here are the dimensions:
| | TURNER FIELD | SUNTRUST PARK |
Left Field | 335 | 335 |
Left-Center | 380 | 375 |
Center Field | 400 | 400 |
Right-Center | 390 | 375 |
Right Field | 330 | 325 |
Wall Height | 8-foot-4 | Variable between 6-feet and 16-feet |
SunTrust Park will be smaller than Turner Field based on the outfield dimensions, particularly to the right-center field gap. Freddie Freeman will appreciate that, Iâm sure. Either way, it remains to be seen how SunTrust Park will play. The Braves are in the middle of a rebuild and, like every other team in baseball, theyâre going to tailor their roster to their ballpark going forward. Right now, the ballpark is a variable.
Chicago Cubs
Burning Question: Will Jason Heywardâs new swing get him back on track?
That the Cubs won the World Series last season despite get a near worst-case scenario season from Heyward, their $184 million free agent signing, speaks to their depth. Heyward hit .230/.306/.325 (70 OPS+) overall, and while he remains an excellent fielder, you donât give a guy that much money for his glove alone.
This winter Heyward has been working to adjust his swing:
@WhatTheMicah @DEvanAltman best I can do rn. Hard to find a longer side angle from 2016 showing full swing/load. pic.twitter.com/NbNK4E4WzJ
— Corey Freedman (@CFCubsRelated) December 20, 2016
Are the Cubs good enough to win the NL Central even with another poor season from Heyward? Almost certainly, as long as their top four starters remain healthy. Clearly they want more from Heyward going forward, and this spring weâll get our first glimpse at his brand new swing.
Cincinnati Reds
Burning Question: Are Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera the middle infield of the future?
The Reds finally convinced longtime second baseman Brandon Phillips to waive his no-trade clause last week. Shortstop Zack Cozart, an impending free agent, figures to be traded at some point this summer. Those moves will pave the way for Peraza and Herrera to man the middle infield full-time.
Peraza, a natural shortstop who filled in all around the diamond in 2016, hit .324/.351/.411 (102 OPS+) in 256 plate appearances last year. Herrera, who came over in the Jay Bruce trade, has proven just about all he can in Triple-A and is ready for an extended big league audition.
There is no quicker way to contention than being strong up the middle. The Reds will now see whether Peraza and Herrera can be their long-term double play combination as they move forward with the rebuild.
Colorado Rockies
Burning Question: Are the young starters ready to carry the team?
The Rockies have more high-end young pitching right now than theyâve had at any other point in franchise history. Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson had strong rookie seasons in 2016, Chad Bettis has been quietly above-average for two years now, and Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez are knocking on the door. Itâs a very exciting group.
The Rockies are going to score a lot of runs because they always do. We know that. Their bullpen should improve with Greg Holland and full, healthy seasons from Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee. For this group to make the jump from pretender to contender, the young starters will have to lead the way, and thatâs not easy to do in Coors Field.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Burning Question: How long is Yasiel Puigâs leash?
Last week the Dodgers added Franklin Gutierrez to their stable of right-handed hitting outfielders, which also includes Puig, Scott Van Slyke, Brett Eibner, and Trayce Thompson. There arenât nearly enough roster spots to go around.
Puigâs OPS+ has declined steadily from 159 to 145 to 110 to 101 in his four big-league seasons, and last year Los Angeles sent him to Triple-A for several weeks. Itâs no secret Puig can be a big of a headache in the clubhouse, and the Dodgers have a ton of righty hitting outfielder options. How much longer will the club stick with him?
Miami Marlins
Burning Question: Can Giancarlo Stanton avoid the disabled list?
Only twice has Stanton managed to play more than 125 games in his six full seasons from 2011-16. He played in 150 games in 2011, and 145 games in 2014.
Stanton has been dogged by all sorts of injuries, including wrist and hamstring problems, plus he took a fastball to the face two years ago. The man has averaged 38 homers per 150 games in his career, and despite being limited to 74 games in 2015, he still finished tenth in the NL with 27 homers.
The Marlins will need a lot of things to go right to contend in 2017. A full, healthy season of Stanton is the biggest one of those things.
Milwaukee Brewers
Burning Question: How will Eric Thames fare in his second big-league go-round?
Once upon a time, Thames was a promising outfield prospect with the Blue Jays, most notably hitting .262/.313/.456 (105 OPS+) with 12 home runs in 394 plate appearances in 2011. He struggled in 2012 and was traded to the Mariners, then spent 2013 in Triple-A.
At that point Thames went overseas and joined the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. In his three years in South Korea, the now 30-year-old Thames hit a ridiculous .348/.450/.720 with 124 homers in 388 games. Holy smokes.
The Brewers gave him three years and $16 million this winter, and while I doubt they expect him to repeat his numbers with Dinos, they do believe this is a different Eric Thames than the one who played in Toronto and Seattle from 2011-12. If it is, the rebuilding Brewers may have landed themselves the biggest bargain of the offseason.
New York Mets
Burning Question: Are their starters healthy after their various surgeries?
Noah Syndergaard showed up to spring training and said he wants to throw harder this season. Youâve got to love that attitude.
The other four members of the clubâs stud rotation are all coming off surgery: Matt Harvey (thoracic outlet syndrome), Jacob deGrom (ulnar nerve), Steven Matz (bone spur), and Zack Wheeler (Tommy John surgery). The Mets have some depth thanks to Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, though theyâre obviously at their best when guys like Harvey and Matz and deGrom are healthy. This spring will be our first look at them post-surgery.
Philadelphia Phillies
Burning Question: Was 2016 really just a bump in the road for the rebuild?
Things didnât go too well for the Phillies and their youth movement in 2016. Maikel Franco stagnated rather than establish himself as a middle-of-the-order force. Aaron Nola hurt his elbow and didnât pitch after July. Top prospects J.P. Crawford and Nick Williams did not have great (or even good) seasons in the minors.
For a team into the middle of a massive rebuild, all those young players facing adversity at once had to be a little unnerving. The good news is all those guys are supremely talented and could bounce back in a big way in 2017. Thatâs what the Phillies are hoping, anyway. They want last year to be nothing more than growing pains, not a sign things arenât going according to plan.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Burning Question: Can Andrew McCutchen rebound from his poor season?
McCutchen was so bad last season (-0.7 WAR!) that I am convinced he was playing hurt. When it the last time a player, in his age-29 season, went from four straight top-five finishes in the MVP voting to sub-replacement level without being injured?
The Pirates are shifting McCutchen to right field to help cover for his defensive deficiencies, though the bigger concern is getting him to rebuild trade value. Itâs no secret McCutchen is available, and with free agency just two years away, time is of the essence.
San Diego Padres
Burning Question: Will the Christian Bethancourt experiment work?
As it stands, the Padres are a pretty good bet to be the worst team in baseball in 2017 -- though SportsLine projects them to be the sixth-worst team with 72.2 wins -- and the roster has been picked clean aside from Wil Myers.
The most interesting storyline this year is Bethancourt, who San Diego is trying to turn into a super-duper utility player, and yes, that includes pitching. He pitched in two games last season and is throwing bullpens in spring training:
At first glance, Bethancourt's mechanics do look a little cleaner. pic.twitter.com/AVTFWtLSDh
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) February 17, 2017
PitchFX says the 25-year-old Bethancourt, a natural catcher, averaged 92.5 mph and topped out at 96.4 mph in his two mound appearances last year. The Padres plan to play Bethancourt behind the plate and in the outfield in addition to using him in relief.
Baseball hasnât had a true two-way player since Brooks Kieschnick with the 2003-04 Brewers. Bethancourt and the Padres are trying to make it happen in 2017.
San Francisco Giants
Burning Question: Are they worried about their infield?
On the surface, thereâs no reason to be worried. Brandon Crawford is one of the best shortstops in baseball, and Joe Panik and Eduardo Nunez are rock solid at second and third bases, respectively.
And yet, the Giants have emphasized infield depth in a big way this offseason. They most recently added Aaron Hill on a minor-league deal. Hill joins Jimmy Rollins, Gordon Beckham, and Jae Gyun Hwang as minor-league infield signees this winter. And they have utility men Conor Gillaspie, Kelby Tomlinson, and Orlando Calixte on the 40-man roster. Hmmm.
Panik missed time with a concussion last season, and Nunez had a hamstring issue, but otherwise we donât have any reason to think the Giants should be worried about their infield. And yet, theyâve added an insane amount of depth in recent weeks. San Francisco is really good and figures to contend for a postseason spot this year, if not the NL West title. But do they know something about their infield we donât?
St. Louis Cardinals
Burning Question: Can they count on Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha?
The Cardinals have already been dealt a devastating blow this spring. Alex Reyes, the consensus best pitching prospect in baseball, blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery earlier this week. Regardless of whether he spent the season in the rotation or the bullpen, Reyes figured to contribute quite a bit in 2017.
The attention now turns to Lynn and Wacha, two former rotation stalwarts who are now uncertainties. Lynn is coming back from his own Tommy John surgery, and Wacha has had on-again, off-again shoulder trouble for a few years now. He hasnât been quite the same guy since suffering a stress reaction in his shoulder in 2014.
Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, and Mike Leake will shoulder much of the load in 2017. With Reyes out, the Cardinals will need to lean on Lynn and Wacha a little more than they probably would like.
Washington Nationals
Burning Question: Can Bryce Harper bounce back from his down season?
In most cases, a 23-year-old player hitting .243/.373/.441 (116 OPS+) with 24 homers and 108 walks is cause for celebration. Harper is not most 23-year-olds, however. He had a historically great 2015 season that earned him the NL MVP award unanimously. There is reason to believe Harper, now 24, was not 100 percent healthy last season, which could explain his down season, relatively speaking.
The Nationals are really good -- they won 95 games in 2016 even with possibly-banged-up Harper, and SportsLine projects 94.6 wins in 2017 -- and if Harper is closer to his 2015 form than his 2016 form, theyâll be on the very short list of the gameâs top World Series contenders.
