After losing 100 games in 2022, the Reds were 21-29 heading to Memorial Day weekend last season. Then they won five in a row before four straight losses and went on a run to become the toast of baseball for a quick second, winning 15 of their next 17 games.
The 11-10 win over the Braves on June 23 was their 12th straight victory and gave the Reds a 1 1/2 game lead in the NL Central. A few weeks later, they headed to Milwaukee with a two-game lead over the Brewers. In two series wrapped around the All-Star break, the Brewers would beat the Reds in five of six games. The Reds still had a few ups and were in first place as late as Aug. 2, but the beginning of the turn for the worst was that six-gamer against the eventual division champs.
In all, though, the Reds improved by a whopping 20 games from 2022 to 2023 and they did so with an unusually large crop of rookies. Three players (Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz) received Rookie of the Year votes while several other rookies (Andrew Abbott and Christian Encarnacion-Strand chief among them) made major contributions.
In the offseason, the Reds added Jeimer Candelario to give them a veteran switch hitter in the middle of the order while also beefing up the rotation and bullpen with multiple signings.
They haven't made the playoffs in a full season since 2013 and haven't won the NL Central since 2012. They'll look to this group to snap those droughts. Further, they haven't advanced past a playoff round since 1995. That's the task facing this young core.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 82-80 (third in NL Central)
- 2024 SportsLine over/under win total: 80.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +5500
Projected lineup
- Matt McLain, 2B
- Elly De La Cruz, SS
- Spencer Steer, LF
- Jake Fraley, RF
- Jeimer Candelario, 3B
- Jonathan India, DH
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B
- Will Benson, CF
- Tyler Stephenson, C
Outfielder TJ Friedl is unfortunately opening the season on the injured list due to a broken wrist. He'll be back and see plenty of playing time before we know it. Also, Noelvi Marte is suspended for 80 games due to a PED violation, but that still leaves a touch over half the season once he's back.
Projected rotation
- RHP Frankie Montas
- RHP Hunter Greene
- RHP Graham Ashcraft
- RHP Nick Martinez
- LHP Andrew Abbott
Talented lefty Nick Lodolo is working his way back from a stress reaction. Assuming everyone above is healthy once he's ready for a return, it'll be interesting to see how they shuffle things, possibly with Martinez heading to the bullpen. Brandon Williamson is also in the mix here.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: RHP Alexis Díaz
- Setup: RHP Emilio Pagán, RHP Lucas Sims
- Middle: RHP Fernando Cruz, RHP Buck Farmer, LHP Justin Wilson, RHP Tejay Antone
- Long: LHP Brent Suter
Sam Moll and Ian Gibaut are injured right now but will see plenty of action.
How do the kids hold up?
The starting lineup has a ton of talent. Are they collectively ready for the grind of 162, though? Remember, most talented prospects on contending teams are surrounded by veterans who have succeeded in the majors before. Perhaps it's one of the reasons the Reds signed Candelario. There are a good number of very talented players with questions hanging over their heads, though.
- McLain looks like a stud. He also only has 89 games of MLB experience and he's already banged up.
- De La Cruz looks like an MVP sometimes. He's also only played in 98 games and hit .186/.284/.288 in his last 32.
- Encarnacion-Strand has 63 MLB games under his belt.
- Steer played a full season, but still just the one.
- Benson still only has 390 career plate appearances. Friedl has only one full season and now he's hurt. Fraley has never been close to a full-time player.
Again, there's so much upside. The list of contending teams heading into a year with so many key players having so little MLB experience is incredibly short. It'll be fun to watch from the outside, but I suspect there will be a few more growing pains.
Breakout season for Greene leads rotation?
With a 5.43 starting pitcher ERA last season, only the A's and Rockies had statistically worse rotation work. That will almost certainly change in 2024 behind a developing ace.
Heading to his age-24 season, Greene has already battled several bouts of injury. He's also already made 46 big-league starts and has shown flashes of the ace-level ceiling that got him drafted second overall out of high school. He struck out 152 in 112 innings last season and he seems ready to break out as a star in 2024.
If he does, things fall nicely around him.
Montas has frontline starter ability and showed it as recently as the first half of 2022. Maybe the Sonny Gray route here is a good luck charm for the Reds (good in Oakland, bad for Yankees, freed from New York by Cincy)?
Abbott had a really nice rookie year. He was exceptional through 10 starts, though he only had a few bad ones all season. Ashcraft had a terrible run in parts of May and June last year, but fixed things down the stretch. He had a 2.58 ERA in his last 12 starts.
And, of course, there's the tease job that has been Lodolo so far. He only managed seven starts last season and was a mixed bag (two awful starts ruined his stat line, but there was also a 12-strikeout outing in Philly in which he threw seven scoreless innings).
The rose-colored glasses view of this rotation is Greene and Lodolo pitching like aces while Montas looks like he did in Oakland in 2021-22, Abbott parties like it's 2023 and Ashcraft throws like he did in his last 12 starts. That would be one of the better rotations in the league.
Regardless, they won 82 games last season with Luke Weaver taking 21 starts and Ben Lively getting 12. Things should be a lot more steady and less patchwork in 2024. With what looks like a quality bullpen, things are looking up for the Reds on the mound.
What would make for a successful season?
A 20-game leap in victories won't be happening again, but the Reds only missed the playoffs by two games last season and there are a good number of reasons to believe they'll be better, notably with the rotation. I suspect the offense will be inconsistent, but there will be weeks where they look like the most powerful group of hitters in baseball.
I don't think the Reds necessarily have to make the playoffs for this season to be a success, but they do need to see growth from at least half -- probably more like 75ish% -- of their young players to figure this one a success without the playoffs.
Then again, if the Reds see growth from an overwhelming majority of players like De La Cruz, McLain, Greene, Lodolo, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte (once off his suspension), Abbott, Ashcraft and Steer, they'll surely be a playoff team, right?
I think so. I'll say making the playoffs is the short answer, then.
