When the final seconds tick off the clock at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday night, one team will rule as Super Bowl 55 champions, and one player will reign as Super Bowl MVP. History suggests that player will be a quarterback. In the 54 previous Super Bowls, quarterbacks have earned the MVP honors 30 times; running backs and receivers have the next most, with seven apiece. That bodes well for Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, and Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, who has won a record four Super Bowl MVPs.
William Hill Sportsbook lists Mahomes as the -120 favorite in the Super Bowl MVP odds, while Brady is the +200 second choice. Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are the co-third choices, at +1100. Kickoff for Super Bowl LV is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Before locking in any 2021 Super Bowl MVP picks or bets, be sure to see what SportsLine's Larry Hartstein has to say.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. In the 2019 season, he went 58-39 on his against-the-spread NFL picks, giving his followers a profit of more than $1,500. He enters the 2021 Super Bowl on a strong 22-12 run on against-the-spread NFL picks. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has broken down the Super Bowl 55 MVP odds from every angle. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks.
Top 2021 Super Bowl MVP picks
Hartstein studied the 2021 Super Bowl MVP odds and isn't backing Hill at +1100. One of the fastest -- if not the fastest -- players in the league, Hill torched defenses for 15 touchdowns and 1,276 receiving yards during the regular season. He enters Super Bowl LV on a roll, recording 21 catches for 227 yards and three touchdowns in two playoff games.
But since their Week 13 bye week, the Buccaneers have done an excellent job preventing big plays to wide receivers. Over the last four games of the regular season, receivers averaged just 10.2 yards per reception against Tampa Bay. That was the second lowest average allowed by any team over that time frame.
Hartstein is also fading Travis Kelce and his chances of winning the MVP award even though he is third in the MVP odds with Hill at +1100. The 31-year-old Kelce leads all tight ends in career 100-yard receiving games in the playoffs (five). He also ranks second among tight ends in career receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in the postseason.
But history is not on Kelce's side; no tight end has ever won the Super Bowl MVP award. In addition, his game against Tampa Bay in Week 12 was one of his worst of the season. He had just 82 receiving yards in that game and did not score.
How to make 2021 Super Bowl MVP picks
Instead Hartstein has found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one player in the Super Bowl LV MVP odds. He's sharing which player to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins MVP in the Super Bowl 2021? And what critical X-factor makes one player a must-back? Check out the latest 2021 Super Bowl MVP odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see who to back for Super Bowl MVP, all from the expert on a 22-12 run on NFL picks.
2021 Super Bowl MVP odds
Patrick Mahomes -120
Tom Brady +190
Tyreek Hill +1100
Travis Kelce +1100
Leonard Fournette +3000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +3000
Mike Evans +3000
Chris Godwin +3000
Shaquil Barrett +4000
Darrel Williams +4000
Tyrann Mathieu +4000
Ronald Jones +5000
Antonio Brown +5000
Frank Clark +5000
Rob Gronkowski +6000
Chris Jones +6000
Sammy Watkins +8000
Lavonte David +8000
Devin White +8000
Mecole Hardman +8000
