There's one similarity between the Pittsburgh Steelers' upcoming playoff game against the Buffalo Bills and one of the franchise's most iconic wins. Monday's game is between two teams that have won a combined eight straight games. In January 1979, the Steelers prevailed against the Dallas Cowboys in a Super Bowl that featured two teams that had won a combined 15 straight contests.
Pittsburgh defeated Dallas back then by making more big plays, receiving better quarterback play and capitalizing on two major Cowboys mistakes. The Steelers will look to do similar things against a Bills team that has won five straight games after a 6-6 start.
Buffalo is currently a whopping 10-point favorite over Pittsburgh, according to Caesars Sportsbook. While that might seem like too much, it's easy to see the oddsmakers' likely point of view.
The Bills finished the regular season with the league's sixth-ranked scoring offense and fourth-ranked scoring defense. Buffalo's offense is led by the prolific trio of quarterback Josh Allen, wideout Stefon Diggs and Pro Bowl running back James Cook. Its defense, led by Leonard Floyd, sacked opposing quarterbacks 54 times during the regular season. The unit also recorded an impressive 18 interceptions.
Couple the Bills' strengths along with the facts that the Steelers are playing with a third-string quarterback and without Defensive Player of the Year candidate T.J. Watt, one can see why the Steelers are heavy underdogs. Don't, however, assume that the Steelers will go down gently, especially if this is in fact Mike Tomlin's last run as Pittsburgh's coach.
In fact, don't be surprised if the Steelers evoke memories of the '05 title team by beating Buffalo. Here are three reasons why Pittsburgh will beat Buffalo.
NOTE: The game was moved from Sunday to Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET due to weather.
1. Punishing running game
Like the '05 Steelers, Pittsburgh has a formidable running back duo. A big reason for the Steelers' three-game winning streak has been the running of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The duo helped Pittsburgh run for 202 yards in Seattle in Week 17 and 155 in sloppy conditions this past Sunday in Baltimore.
While Warren may have been more consistent during the season, Harris has had the hot hand in recent weeks. The former first-round pick had 122 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle and 112 yards and a score in Baltimore. Harris' strong play down the stretch led to him becoming the first player in franchise history to start his career with three straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons.
Harris and Warren will likely have to have a similar impact to the one they had in the Steelers' win over Seattle. Warren complemented Harris that day by rushing for 75 yards and a score while also catching four passes. Their combined success allowed the Steelers to pile up 25 first downs and 468 total yards while controlling the ball for nearly 38 minutes.
Harris and Warren are capable of having that type of success. While they are a solid unit, the Bills defense is susceptible against the run. Buffalo was 15th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 28th in yards-per-carry allowed during the regular season. It allowed six teams to rush for at least 122 yards during the regular season. The Steelers will have to run for at least 150 yards if they are going to pull off the upset.
In one of the franchise's biggest playoff upsets, the Steelers shocked John Elway's Broncos in the '84 playoffs by rushing for 169 yards, with Frank Pollard and Walter Abercrombie rushing for 99 and 75 yards, respectively.
2. Mistake-free Mason Rudolph vs. turnover-prone Josh Allen
OK, I'm not going to pretend that the Steelers have a quarterback advantage here. Allen is an MVP candidate and is one of the most dangerous players in the NFL with the ball in his hands. But he is prone to turning the ball over, and in the playoffs, making mistakes is often the different between who wins and who losses.
Allen had 18 interceptions and seven fumbles this season. He had two picks and a fumble in Buffalo's 21-14 win over Miami in Week 18. Over the past three games, Allen had thrown five interceptions and has fumbled three times.
The Bills often overcome these mistakes with sound defense and Allen's ability to make plays. Allen will more than likely turn the ball over at least once; it'll be up to Pittsburgh's offense to capitalize when it happens.
Along with capitalizing on Bills mistakes, it's up to Mason Rudolph to take care of the ball. That won't be easy, given the Bills' ability to pressure the quarterback and the secondary's penchant for catching opposing quarterback's passes. This is where Harris and Warren come into play. The Steelers need to give Rudolph manageable third downs to work with, which was an issue at times a week ago in Baltimore.
Rudolph has yet to turn the ball over this season, and that's at least partly due to the offense the Steelers have run with him under center. The Steelers have often lined up in three tight end sets and have mostly asked Rudolph to make safe throws. The Bills will try to force Rudolph to take more shots downfield, which he has proven capable of making (especially against the Bengals and Seahawks).
Rudolph will have to make some big throws in weighty moments. But maybe just as important is him not making the big mistake that could turn the game on its head. The Bills may have the better quarterback, but the Steelers have a quarterback who can win a game merely by not losing it.
How Rudolph plays won't matter, though, if he doesn't receive adequate support from his receiving corps, a unit that has been much maligned this season. Rudolph needs "A" games from Johnson and George Pickens, who was the focus of the Ravens' defense in Week 18. Both players will have to be factors.
3. Defensive depth
We won't sugarcoat the significance of Watt's absence. It's a huge blow for a defense that has already lost both starting inside linebackers. But just as they have overcome those losses, the Steelers have the depth to at least partly mask Watt's absence.
Tomlin acknowledged during his weekly press conference that Pittsburgh's depth at outside linebacker is better than it's been in recent years. That depth is led by rookie Nick Herbig and veteran Markus Golden. The duo combined for seven sacks in relief work this season.
Herbig is slated to start in Watt's place, which is fitting. The Steelers drafted Herbig largely because of what he did during is final season at Wisconsin, when he was basically asked to do the same things that were asked of Watt during his final year in Madison.
No, Herbig isn't Watt, but he is a capable pass rusher who doesn't appear to be hitting the proverbial rookie wall. He had a critical strip sack that set up a field goal during Pittsburgh's Week 17 win in Seattle.
Pittsburgh may not have Watt, but there's a good chance that Pro Bowl safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will play after missing the past three games with a knee injury. Fitzpatrick's return will give the Steelers the ability to either keep Patrick Peterson at safety (where he has excelled) or move him back to cornerback. The Steelers will also have fellow safety Damontae Kazee back after he was suspended for the final three games of the regular season.
This depth, coupled with the emergence of Eric Rowe and rookie Joey Porter Jr., gives the Steelers a secondary that is capable of giving Allen and Co. fits. It'll largely be up to the front seven, though, to limit Cook's effectiveness while forcing Allen into obvious passing situations. If they do, it'll only increase the Steelers' chances at pulling off one of the biggest playoff upsets in franchise history.
