The Carolina Panthers can win the NFC South, but they're already guaranteed a berth in the NFL playoffs. The defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons can punch their ticket with a win. Lose and they'll need help. The division rivals meet Sunday in a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Falcons are four-point home favorites, up a full point from where the line opened. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 44.5, down 2.5 from the opener.
Before you make any bets on Panthers-Falcons, you need to see what SportsLine stat geek R.J. White has to say.
Last Sunday, White told SportsLine readers to back the Saints as 5.5-point favorites against the Falcons in another huge NFC South matchup. The result: New Orleans cruised by 10, easily covering the spread.
Amazingly, that cash improved White to 15-4 in his past 19 against-the-spread picks involving the Falcons. Anyone who has followed his advice is having a very happy holiday season.
Now, White has evaluated every matchup, every injury and every trend and locked in another strong point-spread pick for Panthers-Falcons. You can see it over at SportsLine.
White knows the Falcons have struggled mightily this season under first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. They're 9-6, but have only topped 30 points four times. The Seahawks, Ravens and Cowboys are all averaging more points than Atlanta (22.1).
Wide receiver Julio Jones has just four 100-yard games and three touchdowns after he hit the century mark seven times last season and scored six times.
Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr all have more touchdown passes than Matt Ryan (19).
But just because the Falcons have been inconsistent doesn't mean they can't cover, especially at home in a critical game.
The Falcons will be highly motivated. If they lose, they would need the Seahawks to lose to the Cardinals to make the postseason. A chance for redemption after their fourth-quarter Super Bowl collapse should energize the Dirty Birds.
The last time the Panthers and Falcons met, the Panthers won by three (20-17), but that game was in Carolina. The Panthers rushed for over 200 yards in that game, with quarterback Cam Newton leading the way with 86. Expect Falcons coach Dan Quinn to make the necessarily adjustments on Sunday.
SportsLine's advanced computer model is calling for Ryan to throw for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Jones is the best bet to find the end zone receiving and should also hover around 100 yards. Jones practiced sparingly this week, but was not listed on the injury report.
It's also calling for Newton to top 250 total yards and two scores. He has eight total TDs in the last four weeks, including a four-TD gem against Green Bay two weeks ago. He has at least 50 yards rushing the last four games.
White is leaning Under, but knows there's a critical stat no one is thinking about that ultimately determines the point-spread winner for Panthers-Falcons.
So which side should you back in Panthers vs. Falcons on Sunday? Visit SportsLine now to see what critical stat determines which side of Panthers-Falcons you need to be all over, all from the expert who is 15-4 on Falcons picks, and find out.
