Davante Adams is the consensus top player set to enter 2022 NFL free agency. The only question is whether he will, in fact, hit the market. One of, if not the, best wide receiver in football, the five-time Pro Bowler failed to strike a long-term agreement with the Packers in 2021, and now he's weeks away from potentially drawing lucrative offers from around the league. Adams has said repeatedly he'd like to remain in Green Bay, and the Packers could use their franchise tag to retain No. 17, but there's been plenty of speculation that Adams' future will also be tied to that of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whose 2022 plans are still unknown.
No matter where Adams plays, he's bound to cash in and potentially reset the receiver market. The top target for the NFL's back-to-back MVP, his average annual value on a long-term deal could be in the ballpark of the Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins ($27.3 million). But who, exactly, will pay up to win his services if the Packers don't play tag? And where does Green Bay actually rank among suitors? Here's a forecast of Adams' market:
Suitors
Long shots
Bears: How they'd love to swipe him from their superior NFC North rivals and give Justin Fields an All-Pro No. 1. They've got money to spend. But they've also got other big needs and will have a hard time selling Adams on a rebuild.
Broncos: This one's contingent on Aaron Rodgers making the unlikely move to Denver. They've got lots of cap space to play with, but unless Rodgers is part of the package, they've got enough talent out wide to address other issues (like QB!).
Browns: If Rodgers were part of the move, it'd be an easier sell. Still, general manager Andrew Berry is due for a big swing, he's got money to spend, and the Browns could use a splash of talent out wide opposite Jarvis Landry.
Jaguars: They could easily make him the NFL's highest-paid receiver (and make Trevor Lawrence really happy). But if money isn't everything for Adams, why would he flee Green Bay for a team in total transition?
Jets: Much like the Jags, they have hordes of cash to offer, not to mention the Big Apple spotlight. But would playing catch with Zach Wilson on a rebuilding team really appeal to Adams at this point?
Steelers: QB is a big X-factor here. Again, if Rodgers is part of the move, all systems go. But even with good cap space, is Pittsburgh prepared to spend like crazy to capitalize on their solid defense?
Contenders
Chargers: This presumes Mike Williams doesn't get their franchise tag, but either way, imagine giving Justin Herbert another weapon of Adams' caliber. They've got loads of money to spend, they're a playoff contender, and Adams is from California.
Dolphins: Like the Jags and Jets, you could argue their biggest selling point is money. But new coach Mike McDaniel is a draw, as is the Miami location. At least some of the building blocks are there for a quick jump to playoff contention.
Packers: They've got salary cap maneuvering to do, but that won't be too hard. Besides, they're invested in the current setup around Rodgers. Adams knows the system, knows his coach, knows his QB. They're knocking on the door of a title run.
Patriots: If Adams is gonna go play with a young QB, Mac Jones might be the preference, given his timing-based accuracy. New England could really use a splashy No. 1, and Bill Belichick proved in 2021 he is, in fact, willing to spend like crazy.
Raiders: A rebuild might not be all that appealing, but Adams is from the West Coast and he's called a potential reunion with Fresno State teammate Derek Carr a "dream." Vegas also has cap space and a need for a true No. 1 out wide.
Prediction
It's fun to imagine Adams donning new colors in 2022, perhaps lifting Josh McDaniels' Raiders offense in Vegas or helping Justin Herbert to the next level in Los Angeles. But let's keep it real: the Packers want him, the Packers need him, and if Rodgers returns as expected, the Packers will have him. It might be by way of the tag at first, but in the end, it makes the most sense for Adams to net a new long-term deal in Green Bay. Our prediction is that Adams lands a three-year, $81M deal with the Packers.
