Big week last week. Huge week. Tremendous week. Went 4-1 on my best bets and it should've been 5-0 except the Browns got really weird and almost stole one from the Titans. The best part? I called the Dolphins, Saints, Redskins and Chiefs all winning outright.
We're gonna stay warm with a couple of dogs and one huge favorite, including a Tennessee team we've been riding and a San Diego team that's been strong against the spread (4-2, although their opponent is 5-1).
You can check all our NFL expert picks here and, yes, the orange means I'm leading.
Titans -2.5 vs. Colts: Tennessee is the best team in the AFC South, which is not saying anything special. But what's special is how they've gotten to be the best team (at least in my opinion): They run the ball in a very physical manner and they are better than they're perceived on defense. In Football Outsiders' DVOA they rank 10th on offense (!), including seventh in rushing offense. They are 10th in rushing defense, and ninth on defense (!!). They are a physical team and the opposite of the soft Colts. This could be a blowout.
Dolphins +3 vs. Bills: Regular old cover horse right here. Miami probably isn't a great team. Wait, scratch that. The Dolphins are a horrible team. But they shouldn't have been slapped in the face as touchdown dogs vs. the Steelers, and they shouldn't be slapped in the face vs. the Bills, either. Buffalo's on a roll but Miami has the capability of slowing down their offense and punishing the Bills' defense by being a methodical running team behind a healthy offensive line.
Redskins +1 at Lions: There's a chance Washington is favored by the time this game starts, which I don't love. But I would be fine with anything under three points I think. Washington's just a better team. Detroit is dead last in defensive DVOA and Washington has quietly become a good rushing team after looking pretty lost to start the season. They dominated in the trenches against the Eagles, running for 230 yards (the team's largest total since 2012). They'll do the same here and grind out a road win.
Chargers +6.5 at Falcons: Atlanta's going to be the public darling here, returning home after two impressive games against the Broncos and the Seahawks. Philip Rivers' career splits here are terrible; he's never beaten the Falcons and he's never won a single regular-season game in a dome (0-4, which is crazy; how has he only played four dome games in his career?). But he gets to visit some family in the south (free day care!) and will keep things closer than a full touchdown against a slightly overrated Falcons team. I actually think the Chargers win.
Chiefs -7 vs. Saints: Huge number here for a Chiefs team that might not be entirely dominant. But they've got Jamaal Charles back and Spencer Ware is running well, too. Each should see north of 20 touches this week against a horrible Saints defense. K.C. pounds the rock and generates turnovers on Drew Brees in an outdoor setting that isn't ideal for this Saints defense.
Last Week Best Bets: 4-1
Last Week Overall: 9-4-2
Best Bets Season: 13-12
