Every year, 14 of the NFL's 32 teams make the playoffs. And on average, only about half of them return the following year. The other half are replaced, with something like six new contenders on an annual basis. It's a true testament to the league's parity, and perhaps the greatest argument for the existing salary cap, which requires all franchises to restock and rebuild.
As we look ahead to the 2024 season, some teams already seem primed to return to the dance after missing the postseason a year ago. Think Kirk Cousin's Atlanta Falcons, or the rehabbing Cincinnati Bengals. But which clubs may be in danger of dropping out of the playoffs? Here's our early rundown of six candidates to miss out on the postseason despite making it in 2023:
Cleveland Browns
2023 finish: 11-6 (0-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2022
On paper, they should be even better this year, with Deshaun Watson coming off a lingering shoulder injury and Jerry Jeudy plugged in alongside Amari Cooper out wide. The defense also remains legit. But Watson has played just 12 games in the last two years, and he hasn't been an above-average passer in four. Everything rides on him.
Dallas Cowboys
2023 finish: 12-5 (0-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2020
They've still got elite play-makers on both sides of the ball, but Jerry Jones is all but forcing his quarterback-head coach duo into an ultimatum season, with Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy under pressure to make a deep run. Meanwhile Prescott's O-line has real questions, the defense has new management, and they've not upgraded skill spots.
Los Angeles Rams
2023 finish: 10-7 (0-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2022
This is the toughest call here, because they showed a ton of long-term potential in 2023, the breakout year for young stars like Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Co. But they're still betting a lot on the availability of a now-36-year-old Matthew Stafford, who's missed multiple starts in three of his last five seasons. New backup Jimmy Garoppolo is even more injury-prone.
Miami Dolphins
2023 finish: 11-6 (0-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2021
When firing on all cylinders, Mike McDaniel's offense is video game-esque, but the big-game questions surrounding Tua Tagovailoa's off-script upside remain, and his O-line is now thinner. So too is the defensive front, with Christian Wilkins gone. The rival New York Jets, meanwhile, are due for a leap with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 finish: 10-7 (0-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2022
Wait, what? Didn't this team just acquire not one but two big-name quarterbacks? Yes. And both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have the tools to be upgrades on the jettisoned Kenny Pickett. But this is still an old-school program married to conservative strategy in a tough division, with holes at premium spots like wideout and cornerback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 finish: 9-8 (1-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2019
Surprisingly, they have the longest playoff streak of any team on this list. And yet that speaks mostly to the painful lack of competition in the NFC South. They did excel at retaining key players this offseason, but are we giving them too much credit for "running it back" as opposed to upgrading a borderline wild-card lineup?
