Week 17 NFL odds, picks: Redskins cover against Foles, Eagles, plus more best bets

Betting the NFL is more difficult than any other sport, and I'm not just saying that because I'm only 26-22 on the season in this column (though I am 7-2 the last three weeks). It's because no sport draws more action than the NFL, which means it's in the best interest of bookmakers to put out the most accurate lines that they can.

And there may not be a more difficult time to bet the NFL than in Week 17 of the regular season. You don't know what to expect. Some teams have already clinched a playoff spot and may be thinking of resting some key players to get them extra rest for the playoffs. Or sometimes you'll have a situation like we have with the Bears and Vikings this week. Yes, the Bears have a chance at a first-round bye, but considering they need the Rams to lose to the 49ers, the odds aren't in their favor. Meanwhile, they're playing a Vikings team that needs to beat them to make the playoffs themselves, and should the Vikings make the playoffs, they'll likely be playing the Bears again. So, if you're the Bears, how much do you want to show the team you'll probably be facing again in a week?

Then there are the teams with nothing to play for but pride. How motivated will they be to go out and give their all in a game that won't mean much in the long run? Are you going to fight for that extra yard and risk your health for the chance at finishing 5-11 instead of 4-12?

There are just so many new variables at play this week, making it more difficult to figure out than the rest. Thankfully I've been able to find some games I think we can exploit before the playoffs begin.

Stream all of Sunday's games on fuboTV, try it for free, and stream the CBS games on CBS All Access.

Redskins (+7) vs. Eagles

The Eagles need to win this game if they want a shot at defending their title in the playoffs. They also need the Vikings to lose, but all they can control is this game. The Redskins, on the other hand, have nothing to play for. So why am I on the Redskins? Well, the Redskins have played pretty well in recent weeks! Once Alex Smith went down with a broken leg and was replaced by Josh Johnson, most wrote this team off, but Johnson's been a pleasant surprise.

In three games, Johnson has thrown for 499 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He's also rushed for 116 yards and a score. Not eye-popping numbers, but they're a bit skewed by a bad performance last week against a good Titans defense. A Titans defense that's been a lot better this season than this Eagles team Johnson and the Redskins will face Sunday. The Eagles defense has allowed 27.3 points per game the last three weeks, and on the road this season it's giving up 26.3 points per game compared to only 20.5 at home. Washington may not have a playoff spot to play for, but it does have a chance to end a division rival's season, and I think the Skins will give it their best shot. Eagles 24, Redskins 20

Saints vs. Panthers (Under 45)

The Panthers had to start Taylor Heinicke at quarterback last week in place of Cam Newton, but he got hurt and now they'll be starting Kyle Allen. My primary responsibility here at CBSSports.com is covering college football, and I saw Kyle Allen play quite a bit during his college career at both Texas A&M and Houston. Now, I'm fully aware that players often improve when the move from the college level to the NFL, but let's just say that, based on what I've seen from Mr. Allen, I'm not all that optimistic about Carolina's chances on offense in this game.

Still, I'm not comfortable taking the Saints against the spread here because I don't think they'll find themselves in much trouble in this game, so I'm wary of New Orleans taking its foot off the gas late. The Saints have a bye, so they don't want to rest their key players for two weeks, but I won't be shocked to see a lot of reserves taking the field in the second half. Saints 27, Panthers 10

Bills vs. Dolphins (Under 40)

This is one of those situations where I'm not sure how enthusiastic one team will be (Miami), and I don't know how competent the other team will be (Buffalo). I do not doubt that Sean McDermott and the Bills will approach this game like it's the Super Bowl, even if they're 5-10 on the season. It's just, you know, they're 5-10 for a reason, and Josh Allen may make spectacular plays from time to time, but the majority of the time he's playing poorly. Then there are the Dolphins, who have nothing to play for and must head north to Buffalo to play in 30-degree temperatures.

If Josh Allen were more consistent I'd feel comfortable taking Buffalo against the spread here, but he isn't, so I'm not. Instead, I'm going to rely on the Buffalo defense to do the kind of things its been doing all season and limiting a Miami offense that may not be very motivated. Bills 21, Dolphins 17

SportsLine Bonus Pick

Browns at Ravens: The Ravens win the AFC North if they win this game, and they enter as 6-point favorites with the total set at 41. I have a play available for this game, but if you're interested in seeing what it is, you'll have to head over to my SportsLine page to find out what it is.