Every Friday on the Pick Six Podcast, I join Pete Prisco and Will Brinson to break down that week's slate of games from a gambling perspective and share our best bets (where I went 5-2 in Week 1, thank you very much). When we agree across the board on a game, we circle it on our cards so that we can throw all of our consensus plays into one Pick Six parlay, looking to cash big by sweeping those picks.
You can listen to the entire picks segment below, and be sure to subscribe right here to get daily NFL goodness from Brinson and his cast of guests, including previewing the Monday and Thursday games with Jared Dubin, recapping the Sunday action with the Superfriends, and analysis with Brady Quinn, Bryant McFadden, Heath Cummings and more.
Now let's break down each leg of the parlay, which would pay 11-to-1. We'll also share Brinson's longshot underdog parlay of the week below. And if you want your chance at cashing an even bigger parlay prize, join Parlay Pick'em now to play every week for a million-dollar jackpot and our $10K season prize.
Lines are from Westgate as of Friday afternoon, so they may differ slightly from the ones used on the podcast.
1. Steelers -3.5 vs. Seahawks
Prisco: "I think the Steelers are going to be a really good play this week. Seattle's defense has all kind of issues -- they made Andy Dalton look like a star last week, he threw for over 400 yards. Ben Roethlisberger at home is a different quarterback than he is on the road .. This week, I think the Steelers are an easy pick."
2. Bills-Giants under 44
Prisco: "20-14 Buffalo."
White: "20-14 Giants."
Brinson: "I would lean under on this game at 43.5. The under with two teams that struggle to get things going, I like that spot. I can see this being very Jets-Bills like last week, I don't think it's going to be a shootout or anything."
3. Broncos +2.5 vs. Bears
White: "I think we're getting a lot of value here. The lookahead line had the Broncos favored, -1 I believe, and now it's all the way up to Bears +2.5 ... And then you take into account the Denver home field advantage. In Weeks 1 and 2, they're 48-6 all-time, that includes 22-1 since the year 2000. That's just phenomenal."
4. Patriots-Dolphins under 48.5
Brinson: "The Patriots have been double-digit road favorites 10 times since 2008, and the under has hit in every single one of those. You can kind of run through the game script in your head of why this would make sense. The Patriots go on the road as huge favorites, they score early, they get up, they play suffocating defense, they pound the ball, and they get out of Dodge with a win."
Underdog moneyline parlay
Giants +105
Falcons +110
Lions +110
Saints +110
Broncos +125
Brinson: Five underdogs who can win outright? Whaaaaaaaa. Let's go. If all five of these teams wins outright -- four are at home and they're not huge underdogs here -- people, all they have to do is pull a slight upset -- it pays out around 42-1. If you're taking both parlays and want to avoid the risk of having Joe Flacco ruin two parlays in one fell swoop, I have zero problem with you axing the Broncos and rolling with a four-team parlay. That would pay out about 18-1, which is a perfectly good payout! Feel free to take the Saints out and just go with the three home dogs too -- that would pay just over 8-1, which is a perfectly good payout too! If you take any combo of these and it hits make sure and tweet me the stub @WillBrinson.
