Over the course of a 162-game season, a player's fortunes can turn on a dime, which is why you never want to be too quick to give up on one with legitimate impact potential. If you've held firm on these 14, your patience may finally be paying off.
I say "may" because their recent success is of course over a much smaller sample than their struggles, but there's nonetheless reason to believe it'll stick. In each case, I've indicated my confidence level using this super cool ball indicator ⚾. One ball represents the least confidence that the dog days are over, and four balls represents the most.
Confidence level: ⚾
It took until May 28 for Jose Abreu to hit his first home run, and that one was a 97.8 mph lollipop that barely made it out of the shallowest part of the yard. His home runs in June, though, have been hit 107.1, 109.0 and 109.6 mph, and his average exit velocity during that time is 92.9 mph, much closer to his career norm. If this turns out to be the 36-year-old's hottest stretch of the season, then it's nothing to write home about, but given his track record, we should at least be open to the idea that he's figured something out.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾1/2
Your own confidence level will depend on what you think it means for Dylan Cease to "bounce back." I always thought a repeat of 2022 was too much to ask, which is why he was among my preseason bust picks, but I never expected him to have an 11 percent swinging-strike rate through his first 12 starts. That's above-average at best. He needs to be among the best of the best bat-missers to get away with walking as many as he does, so I take solace in the fact that he has an 18 percent swinging-strike rate in the three starts depicted above.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾⚾
Michael Harris' batting average has climbed from .163 to .249 during the 12-game stretch depicted here, which is still a far cry from last year's .297 mark, but if it had hovered around the .250 mark all season, the response would have been mild disappointment rather than sheer panic. It wouldn't be fair to blame his struggles entirely on bad luck, but as someone who monitored his performance day by day, I was amazed how many batted balls with an xBA over .400 resulted in outs for him. His exit velocity and plate discipline measurements are all actually better than a year ago, and I kind of just expect him to cruise from here.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾1/2
How much should we factor in that Gunnar Henderson is 2 for 15 in his past four games, even knowing he was 11 for 18 in the four games before that? You can drive yourself crazy weighing one small sample against another, which is why this whole exercise is fraught. But I look at his two walks during this broader hot stretch as a good sign, actually, because passivity seemed to have much to do with his struggles. The rookie who many rated as an even better prospect than Corbin Carroll coming into the year certainly isn't lacking in quality contact, ranking in the 82nd percentile for average exit velocity and the 91st percentile for max exit velocity.
Confidence level: ⚾1/2
You might say that an isolated good start merits a confidence rating of only one ball, but I'm giving Lance Lynn an extra half for two reasons. One is that I've long contended better days are ahead, as evidenced by his strikeout and whiff rates, and two is that the good start wasn't just good but historic. A 16-strikeout effort goes a long way toward relieving doubts, even if he entered with an ERA near 7.00, but I must confess that if he bombs next time out, we're probably back to square one .
Confidence level: ⚾⚾ 1/2
This turnaround is not as in-your-face as some of the others, but it carries more weight because, um, it's Manny Machado, a 30-year-old with a long and steady history of early-round production that has him tracking toward Cooperstown. It also basically coincides with his return from a fractured hand, which may have interrupted the spiral effect from his cold start and allowed him a chance to regroup. His strikeout rate and max exit velocity this year are the same as always, giving little reason to think he's on the decline, but of course, more data is needed to conclude with certainty that he's "back."
Confidence level: ⚾⚾
Jake McCarthy was batting .143 when he was sent to the minors in late April and is batting.315 since returning in late May, which is reminiscent of him batting .228 when he was between the minors and majors last year compared to .302 when he was up for good. Of course, a common fallacy is that players will repeat the same pattern year after year in a game rife with irregularity, and I may be lavishing in that fallacy here myself. But the fact is that what he's doing now is more line with what he thought he'd do from the start, so it's not a tough sell on me.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾
Marcell Ozuna's turnaround has been going on since the beginning of May, but he started out in such a deep hole this year and carried over so little goodwill from previous years that he basically needed that long for us to take him seriously. He can quickly fall into bad habits, as we've seen throughout his career, but these past seven weeks (as well as his Statcast page being all lit up in red) tell us that the skills are legitimately there for him to thrive still.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾⚾
After an underwhelming first three months last year, J.T. Realmuto was the best we've ever seen him thereafter, and this season may be playing out much the same way. Five of his eight home runs have come in the month of June, and from the first of those home runs on June 3, his average exit velocity is 91.4 mph, up from 87.8 previously. That's more in line with what he averaged last year and should reassure you that the 32-year-old is still capable of performing like a top Fantasy catcher after falling well short of that for the first two months.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾⚾
You were probably feeling disenchanted with Kyle Schwarber when he entered June batting .163 with a .712 OPS, but did you know he entered last June batting .185 with a .721 OPS? He caught fire from there, going on to hit 46 home runs in all, and something similar may be playing out this season. In addition to the surge in home runs, he's been striking out less and hitting the ball to all fields more, and nothing in his profile suggests he's a fundamentally different player from a year ago. He may not be much more than a .220 hitter when all's said and done, but you can still trust him to get there.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾
In 2021, Blake Snell had a 5.44 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his first 19 starts compared to 1.83 and 0.76 in his final eight. In 2022, he had a 5.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his first 10 starts compared to 2.19 and 1.03 in his final 14. After putting together 5.04 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his first 10 starts this year, it would appear the turnaround is well underway again, but of course it's not predetermined to last the rest of the season. And we know how bad things could get if they go sour again. He's also doing it differently this time, actually fading the slider that saved his bacon the last two years.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾⚾⚾
Maybe it's because he's been overshadowed by Shohei Ohtani, or maybe it's because nobody expected anything less, but Fernando Tatis has gotten little attention for being the second-best player in Fantasy since the start of June, looking much like the guy who hit 42 homers and stole 25 bases in 2021. And in fact, his 94.0 average exit velocity for the month is basically on par with that, too. Given all the time lost to the shoulder surgery, the wrist surgery and the PED suspension the past two years, it stands to reason he'd need a few weeks to find his stride (not that he was bad before June), but the 24-year-old may well dominate from this point forward.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾1/2
You don't bet against a player with Trea Turner's track record eventually figuring things out, not at age 29. Even a relatively tame two-week stretch in which a single game on June 5 (four hits, two home runs) is doing much of the heavy lifting should go a long way toward relieving everyone's concerns. My one hesitation is that it seems like he's had some trouble catching up to fastballs this year, which can be a sign of decline, but his strikeout rate has been trending the right direction for about a month now.
Confidence level: ⚾⚾
Is Taijuan Walker even a thing? Well, he went 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 last year, which are useful numbers for Fantasy, particularly in a pitching-starved environment, even if they're far from studly. This latest stretch corresponds to a jump of 2-3 mph on basically all of his pitches, and he's talked about how a change to his routine has him "feeling looser, more athletic." As long as you understand what he's bouncing back to, it's reasonable to think he's that guy again.
