We're 2 1/2 weeks in, and nothing actually means anything.
That's not an exaggeration. If you go look at the leaderboards from last April -- meaning even more than 2 1/2 weeks in -- they're all topsy-turvy, revealing some sort of alternate universe where Matt Chapman and Eduardo Rodriguez reign supreme.
It's just the nature of the game. Whether you're talking day to day, week to week or month to month, performance is notoriously inconsistent in baseball. You wonder why it takes 162 games to figure out what's what? That's why.
So if I were to define "buy low" and "sell high" in the broadest sense, the list would be so long as to be unhelpful, which is why I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to tell you, for instance, that Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez and Alex Bregman are all bound to improve and obvious buy-low targets because I think, for all your griping, you already know that. The more established the player, the less analysis is needed, and for ones as high-end as them, it's really as simple as "just wait a beat." Here's how colleague Chris Towers put it:
Here's what I wrote about Julio Rodriguez in today's FBT Newsletter, and it applies to Ronald Acuña as well: I"m not going to open their Statcast pages until May 1. That is my solemn, sworn oath to you. That's how little I care about those first-round caliber players' slow starts https://t.co/00zmZu732z pic.twitter.com/YYtKF3aIJh
— Chris Towers is the Riley Greene Preservation Soc (@CTowersCBS) April 15, 2024
Of course, if you're on the buying end and think you can acquire Acuña or Rodriguez for 75 cents on the dollar, then by all means. But I think serious players in longstanding leagues know better than to make such a deal.
So instead of fixating on the obvious cases, I've picked out a handful of players -- eight in all -- who leave enough reason for doubt that it might be worth exploring a deal, on either one end or the other. That's not to say I'm all-in on the buy-lows or all-out on the sell-highs. You should always use extreme caution when weighing the merits of a deal, and I can't say enough that the emphasis in any buy-low or sell-high scenario is less on the buy and the sell than on the low and the high. You feel me? The cost is the entire point.
With that said, here are the eight players that might inspire me to pursue such a deal.
Buy low: Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
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This one borders on being too obvious, but what makes Kevin Gausman's situation different from, say, Julio Rodriguez's is that he missed most of spring training with shoulder fatigue. And if you've paid any attention to the pitching landscape early this season, you can't help but have a fatalistic attitude toward injuries. It doesn't help that Gausman's velocity was down 3-4 mph in one outing. Granted, he was pitching in the cold, but when you already suspect something is wrong with a pitcher, anything out of character can be taken as evidence.
Of course, the most compelling evidence of all is Gausman's poor outcomes to begin the year, but if we go through the starts one by one, the first was actually great, the second was tarnished by that poor velocity, and the third still saw him pile up 18 swinging strikes on 78 pitches, his velocity having been more or less restored. Shoulder fatigue is mild as far as shoulder injuries go, and while Gausman is showing some rust, the effectiveness of his pitches is still evident. A panicky investor might be willing to cash out for 50-75 cents on the dollar, but you should cash in.
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Sell high: Elly De La Cruz, 3B/SS, Reds
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Wait, what? The most hyped-up player of 2024 is actually living up to expectations, and I suggest you trade him? With great caution, of course. I saw a Fantasy Baseball analyst of some note tweet over the weekend that if we could draft all over again, De La Cruz would likely be a top-five pick, and it got me thinking. Could you trade him for Julio Rodriguez? Aaron Judge? Some other first-rounder who's been a little slow out of the gate? Why would you want to if De La Cruz is himself looking like a first-rounder, right? Well, that's why I'm stipulating "great caution" because it may well be that he's breaking out as that sort of player.
But it may not be. His two biggest shortcomings as a rookie last year were thought to be his 33.7 percent strikeout rate and 53.9 percent ground-ball rate. Both have gotten worse this year. But maybe he's just so talented that he's overcoming them, right? Maybe, but need I remind you that he was batting .328 with four homers, 16 steals and an .899 OPS after his first 29 games in the majors last year? That's about twice as big of a sample as what he has so far this year, but clearly, it wasn't a definitive one.
Buy low: Nolan Jones, OF, Rockies
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One thing for Nolan Jones that hasn't changed from his breakout 2023 -- when he hit .297 with 20 homers, 20 steals and a .931 OPS in just 106 games -- is that he's still hitting the snot out of the ball. His 92.5 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 87th percentile, and his 112.0 mph max exit velocity ranks in the 91st percentile. He's still walking plenty and actually moving even faster around the bases (83rd percentile sprint speed).
It's not like the talent was just a mirage, in other words. He just needs to focus in a little better. His 40.0 percent strikeout rate is of course untenable, but it's not like he's incapable of making contact. His zone-contact rate is slightly up from a year ago, and his whiff rate is slightly down. The problem is that he's being overly passive, taking more pitches in the zone and, in doing so, undermining his own potential to inflict damage. It's only a minor adjustment that's needed, though, and when he strings together some success, I think we'll see him go on the attack more. I wouldn't rule out him performing up to last year's numbers still.
Sell high: Cristian Javier, SP, Astros
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A look at Cristian Javier's stat line would lead you to believe he's bounced back from his disappointing 2023 and is back on the path to Fantasy acedom. But the number that's most important to me is the one that hasn't improved: he's hardly striking anyone out. His 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate is also considerably worse than last year's 11.4 percent mark, which itself was disappointing. His optimal fastball shape has always been the key to his success, and it's what he lost last year. Judging by the lack of whiffs, I'm not confident he's regained it.
So how has he found success so far? He's an extreme fly-ball pitchers, and fly balls that don't sail over the fence generally land in a fielder's glove. But if he can't generate more whiffs, it's only a matter of time before he's burned by the long ball. His 5.42 xFIP stands in stark contrast to his 1.54 ERA and is actually worse than last year's 5.16 mark.
Buy low: Joe Musgrove, SP, Padres
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At the time I started writing about Joe Musgrove on Monday, he looked to be in for a pummeling at the hand of the Brewers. He managed to pull it together for a quality start, but it was no one's idea of a pretty one. Overall, his ERA stands at 6.29 and his WHIP at 1.77, which is especially concerning because he missed the final two months last season with shoulder inflammation. But that's also why you stand a chance of acquiring him on the cheap now. It's worth noting that through the same number of starts last year (five), he had a similar ERA (6.75) and WHIP (1.58), only with twice as many home runs allowed as he has so far. It only took him two months to bring that ERA and WHIP back down to size, finishing at 3.05 and 1.14, respectively.
Musgrove's whole career is an underdog story, and he's only achieved the success that he has through determination and attention to detail. I have every confidence in him to self-correct, as we've seen him do countless times in the past. The season's sheer length makes it easy to forget the rough patches, but they happen. Could he be pitching hurt? It's possible, but without the foreknowledge of last year's injury, I'd have no reason to suspect that's the case.
Sell high: Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs
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Shota Imanaga has yet to allow a run in his three starts this year, so clearly, he's the one we should have been hyping over that Yoshinobu Yamamoto guy. Or maybe he's been kind of lucky and is due for a correction once the league catches up to him. And the league will catch up to him if he continues with his two-pitch approach. The splitter is excellent, but anyone who throws a fastball two-thirds of the time has a predictability problem. We're already seeing evidence of it. After registering an 18.5 percent swinging-strike rate in his first start, Imanaga has just a 6.8 percent swinging strike rate in his past two.
Even worse is his 56.1 percent fly-ball rate, a mark so high that he can't help but have starts where he gives up few hits, as has happened so far. But if those fly balls are hit too hard, he'll also have starts where he's destroyed by the long ball, and Imanaga's average exit velocity so far ranks in the bottom 5 percent of the league. The balance of his highs and lows should still make for a pretty good pitcher in Fantasy, but you may be able to market Imanaga as more of an ace right now.
Buy low: Christopher Morel, 3B/OF, Cubs
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Christopher Morel was more of a mid-round pick on Draft Day, which should only make him easier to acquire amid this slow start. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to see him dropped in some shallower leagues soon -- that is, if he doesn't turn things around first. But if you go beyond the superficial, you'll see that he's actually addressed some of his biggest shortcomings as a hitter.
Not only has he cut his strikeout rate in half, taking it from 31.0 to 17.7 percent, but he's swinging at more of the right pitches (his zone-swing rate going from 71.9 to 81.2 percent) and also taking more of the right pitches (his chase rate going from 28.9 to 24.3 percent). Meanwhile, his zone-contact rate is up 10 percentage points, and his whiff rate is down more than 12 percentage points. That's legitimate growth for a 24-year-old who continues to generate elite exit velocities. Morel may only be batting .222 and slugging .413, but Statcast has him with a .292 xBA and .516 xSLG -- numbers that he has a legitimate chance of meeting if his new approach continues.
Sell high: Taylor Ward, OF, Angels
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With another home run Monday, Taylor Ward is up to six on the young season, which puts him nearly halfway to last season's total and a quarter of the way to his career high of 23. And that sums up the argument right there. Do we really think he's been supercharged at age 30, or is the more likely explanation that he's simply off to a hot start?
Not like we've never seen him get hot before. Remember how he was batting .370 (40 for 108) with nine homers and a 1.194 OPS after 30 games in 2022? "Aha," you say, "but that's when he jammed his shoulder crashing into the outfield fence. We'll never know what might have happened if he hadn't." But we kind of do, don't we, since he went on to hit .253 with 14 homers and a .756 OPS in 97 games last year? "Aha," you say, "but he got off to a slow start and was just beginning to heat up when he got hit in the face by a pitch, ending his season. You may be surprised to learn he hit .288 with 10 homers and a .918 OPS over his final 46 games."
OK, sure, I see how you can manipulate the numbers to arrive at the rosiest possible outcome, but that's not normally how we assess players. Ward has enough of a track record by age 30 that we don't have to reinvent the wheel with him. If he goes on to hit .275 with 25 homers and 80 RBI, we should all be thrilled, and we certainly shouldn't expect more than that. It would make him a pretty good Fantasy outfielder, but if you can find someone who's convinced Ward has transformed into something more than "pretty good," don't hesitate to deal him.
