The last time we did this pick-by-pick exercise, I took Miles Sanders at 3.10. This time I tried to get cute and see if he would fall to early Round 4, because I've found him available at the end of Round 4 in a lot of recent drafts. Well, he didn't make it back. Chris Towers took him at 3.11. At the bottom of this article you'll find a section called "pick I might regret". Missing out on Sanders isn't there because I already do regret it.
Why are Chris and I so much higher on Sanders than other analysts? Other than the fact that he's coming off a 1,300-yard season with 11 touchdowns? Because the Panthers paid Sanders like someone they expect to be a feature back, they've talked all offseason about using him as a feature back, and his new running backs coach treated him like a feature back the last time they were together.
Duce Staley was Sanders' running back coach in 2019 and 2020 in Philadelphia. Sanders saw 115 targets over 28 games with Staley. The next two years, he saw 60 targets in 29 games. Now that may be at least partially because Jalen Hurts doesn't throw to his running backs as much. Well, Sanders' new QB Bryce Young does, his running back Jahmyr Gibbs actually led Alabama in catches last year. Add in that we have video of Sanders talking to Frank Reich and GM Scott Fitterer about catching 50 passes again, and I have a hard time seeing why others don't like Sanders in Round 3.
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Here's my squad from the tenth pick:
1.10: Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
2.03: CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
3.10: Aaron Jones, RB, GB
4.03: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN
5:10: James Cook, RB, BUF
6.03: Breece Hall, RB, NYJ
7.10: Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
8.03: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA
9.10: Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT
10.03: Nico Collins, WR, HOU
11.10: Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
12.03: Jayden Reed, WR, GB
13.10: Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU
14.03: Justyn Ross, WR, KC
The strength of this team should be at wide receiver. With Diggs, Lamb, and Hopkins, there is a real chance I have three top-12 wide receivers. For that reason I didn't focus as much on my bench depth at receiver. I wish I would have taken one more between Round 5 and Round 9, but Nico Collins is very solid as a No. 4 option, and if C.J. Stroud improves as the season goes on, I wouldn't be surprised if Collins is a top-24 WR in the second half. Still, Reed and Ross behind him are major question marks.
Where I did spend a lot of mid-round capital was at running back. In fact, I probably wouldn't have taken both Jones and Cook had I known that Hall and Taylor would have been there when they were. But again, once you have those four there is not much reason to draft another running back.
I did take a backup quarterback and tight end. Tagovailoa is one of two top-10 QBs (Anthony Richardson is the other) who pretty much guarantee I will take a backup. It's less common for me to take another tight end behind Freiermuth, but I do believe Schultz has an outside shot to lead the Texans in targets, especially if Collins goes down.
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I was very happy to land Freiermuth at the end of Round 9, more than a round later than David Njoku. Kenny Pickett's improvement in the preseason gives all the Steelers more upside, and Freiermuth has already demonstrated elite tight end skills. He earned 14 more targets than George Pickens in 2022 despite playing one fewer game and dominated in the red zone as a rookie. If he puts those two skills together in Year 3, and Pickett makes a leap, Freiermuth could be TE3.
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I don't see much from last year that says Hopkins is falling off. He scored more than 20 FPPG with Kyler Murray and still maintained a YPRR of 1.99 despite seeing a majority of his targets from Colt McCoy. But he is 31 years old and the Titans are a run heavy offense, and Ryan Tannehill may have lost his fastball last year. There were a bunch of young, exciting receivers who went after Hopkins, so I will definitely regret it if he takes a big step back.
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This could be Hall or Jonathan Taylor. It should be both. Because if both flame out, this team probably isn't good enough. And both of their situations are extremely risky. But can you imagine this team if I have both Hall and Taylor at full strength down the stretch?
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