Here's a little peek behind the curtain: When we did our first Fantasy Football Pick-by-Pick series back in July, I had the No. 5 pick and took a then-healthy Cooper Kupp, only for him to suffer a hamstring injury within 24 hours of the draft. When we decided to update that Pick-by-Pick series for the final weekend of draft season, I also had the No. 5 pick, and I also took Kupp. And, wouldn't you know it, he hurt his hamstring again less than 24 hours after the draft.
That's the risk you run when you draft an older player, and especially an older player who is already working his way back from an injury before the season even starts. Kupp was making progress from that initial hamstring injury and looked like he was on pace to play in Week 1, so I took the chance on a guy I think, when healthy, is probably the best player in Fantasy.
If I had to do it again, obviously, I wouldn't take Kupp with the No. 5 pick, and if you're drafting this weekend, you definitely shouldn't either. But even with his setback – coach Sean McVay made it sound like Kupp is day to day, but he also didn't give enough details to feel particularly confident in it – this might not be enough to derail my season.
When I initially wrote about this team, I wrote about the inherent risk I was taking on by going with Kupp, Derrick Henry, and Keenan Allen as my top three picks, all of whom are several years older than most of their peers at their respective positions. But I think it's worth noting that this wasn't an accident: All three of them are being discounted in drafts because of that risk, and I think there's value in stacking upside on top of upside. Sure, it may blow up in my face. But if even two of Kupp, Henry, and Allen stay healthy and produce like they're capable of, I may have given myself an extra first-round pick here.
Besides, is there really any difference between finishing eighth and finishing 12th in your Fantasy league? I'm playing for first place, not to avoid last place. And, if he's right, there's no player in Fantasy who will help you win more than Kupp.
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He's averaged 25.6 PPR points per game over the past two seasons while playing alongside a healthy Matthew Stafford, a span of 29 games, which is impressive enough; Jefferson averaged 21.5 per game last season, while Austin Ekeler led all non-QBs at 22.3. But here's an even more impressive number: Kupp has only failed to score a touchdown in nine of those 29 games, and he's still averaging 19.6 points per game, a mark only six WRs bested last season. Again, that's in the games where he didn't score a touchdown.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my squad from the fifth pick:
1.5: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
2.8: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
3.5: Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
4.8: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings
5.5: Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders
6.8: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
7.5: Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
8.8: Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys
9.5: Dalvin Cook, RB, Jets
10.8: Kendre Miller, RB, Saints
11.5: Rondale Moore, WR, Cardinals
12.8: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams
13.5: Zay Jones, WR, Jaguars
14.8: Ty Chandler, RB, Vikings
And I just kept steering into the high-risk, high-reward curve with the rest of this roster. Hockenson is probably the only "safe" pick in my first seven picks, with McLaurin nursing a toe injury that has his status for Week 1 up in the air, Williams coming off a torn ACL (he'll be good to go for Week 1), and rookie Anthony Richardson slotted in as my QB.
Some might say you should temper early-round risk with safer later picks, but I think you can make the case for doing the exact opposite. If Kupp and Henry get hurt or just hit an age-related decline, I'm going to need as many difference makers as I can get to make up for that. If Williams can get up to full speed within the first month of the season, he could end up being an incredible RB2 if the Broncos offense takes a step forward; if Breece Hall never gets to full speed, Cook could be a solid RB2 in the Jets offense, too. Either could help overcome any kind of Henry injury, in an ideal world.
This isn't a team for everyone. But when you don't have access to the No. 1 pick and the highest-upside players, you've got to find a championship roster somehow. I think this team has a path there.
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I haven't drafted Richardson often enough during this draft season, and I'm starting to get FOMO. Sure, he might just be such a disaster as a passer that he doesn't matter much for Fantasy. But if he's even passable, he might just be a top-five QB as a rookie. He's one of the most athletic quarterbacks we've seen come out of the college ranks ever – he measured in just four pounds lighter and 1 inch shorter than Cam Newton at the Combine and ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, compared to a 4.59 mark for Newton; he's 17 pounds heavier than Justin Fields and his 40 time was 0.08 seconds shorter, too – and he is paired with the guy who was the Eagles offensive coordinator last season. Richardson might threaten the single-season rushing record for a QB, and if he even gives us 3,000 passing yards and 17 touchdowns on top of that, he could be a top-five QB. I love the upside here.
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I've historically been pretty skeptical about Henry, often to my own detriment. But I have him ranked higher than the consensus this season, so it would be pretty funny if this was finally the year he stopped being an outlier. He's gone from third in NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per carry in 2020 to 14th in 2021 to 23rd last season, and that's reflected in his more traditional metrics. He's still managed to be an outlier in terms of workload, and if he manages to average 21 carries per game while staying healthy, he'll be a great pick here almost no matter what. But if all that work catches up to him, Henry could end up a significant bust, even in the second round.
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I already went over the upside case for Kupp, but the downside is notable too, of course. Kupp is already 30 and dealing with a hamstring before Week 1. Even if he was 100% for Week 1, any kind of further setback could keep him out for the start of the season, and could potentially lead to further setbacks that jeopardize a lot more than just Week 1. Of course, the risk isn't just on Kupp's side – his quarterback is 35 and his season ended early in 2022 due to neck issues that had some questioning whether he'd be able to play again. Stafford is, by all reports, 100% healthy for the start of the season – something we couldn't say this time a year ago, for what it's worth – but 100% healthy for Stafford might be a lot different than for other players. I think if Kupp and Stafford both stay healthy for the majority of the season, Kupp is probably the best player in Fantasy, but things could go sideways very quickly.
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