The easiest part of picking third overall is who you take first. Justin Jefferson figures to be the consensus 1.01, so you're probably looking at one of Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler or Ja'Marr Chase. And guess what?! You're likely to pick from two of these four! That's great. Before you draft, rank them (I just listed them in my preferred order).
The hardest part of picking third overall is who you take with your next two picks. Late Round 2 and early Round 3 offer plenty of good players, but it's still tricky to deal with. Per our PPR Average Draft Position (ADP), you should expect to find in Round 2 a running back like Josh Jacobs or Joe Mixon, or a receiver along the lines of Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jaylen Waddle. But probably not a quarterback.
In our mock, there were quarterbacks and not many of these other names. If your league devalues quarterbacks kind of like how our analyst drafts devalue quarterbacks, then this is a likely scenario. It made my decision a little more challenging.
Here's a look at my roster build from the third pick:
1.03 Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
2.10 Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
3.03 Calvin Ridley, WR, JAC
4.10 Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU
5.03 Drake London, WR, ATL
6.10 Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
7.03 Mike Evans, WR, TB
8.10 D'Andre Swift, RB, PHI
9.03 Brian Robinson, RB, WAS
10.10 Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
11.03 Rashaad Penny, RB, PHI
12.10 Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF
13.03 Evan Hull, RB, IND
14.10 Greg Dulcich, TE, DEN
With Patrick Mahomes going the pick before mine, I was not promised that Hurts nor Josh Allen would be there for me in Round 3. Who else could I have taken? DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave or Calvin Ridley -- there wasn't much of a thought for Joe Mixon or Jahmyr Gibbs. I figured it was more likely for one of those three wideouts to be available when I was up at 27th overall than one of the two quarterbacks, so I took Hurts. Sure enough, Ridley was there for me in Round 3.
This is the kind of rational thinking that's important to do when you're picking near the end of a round. You'll see for yourself which players are left and determine who might be there at your next pick. And it's not just for the Round 2/3 turn, but for all of the turns. That's why it's also important to consider who the drafters at Picks 1 and 2 might take when they're up. In fact, I used their needs against them when I took Dameon Pierce in Round 4 when I knew both managers had just one running back and would consider that position with their next two picks.
You'll see that after the Pierce pick I went with receivers for three straight choices. That's because we have to start three receivers and a Flex. I felt real good about my choices as all three have top-24 half-PPR potential. Evans particularly has become an afterthought this summer but we thought the same thing of Seahawks receivers last year and they turned out great.
Did I intend to draft both Swift and Penny? Absolutely not, but Swift's value in late Round 10 was irresistible. And thus when I was up in Round 11 and saw Penny's name, I figured it would be a good idea to put the pair together. I doubt there will be one reliable weekly Fantasy starter from the Eagles backfield, but I bet both backs will factor into my lineup at points throughout the season. The Eagles are one of the very best running teams in football.
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I mean of course McCaffrey, Hurts and Ridley are superstars, but Pierce has breakout potential written all over him. The Texans new zone-run scheme is straight out of San Francisco. Pierce's metrics suggest he's an efficient runner in that type of system, plus he's a physical runner who gets yards after contact and should be able to burrow for short-yardage touchdowns. Landing him when I knew my rivals would take him if I left him out there just made the pick sweeter.
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London's preseason game was appealing -- he moved really well, especially for a big man, and his ladder-climbing reception along the sideline was epic. I think he'll wind up leading the Falcons in targets, but this figures to remain a run-focused team, especially with second-year QB Desmond Ridder under center. Could London struggle to get 120 targets? Maybe. That's the threshold we like our receivers to get to, and he might not. He's also never been a consistent stat-deliverer when he's shared the field with Kyle Pitts. Hopefully London comes through, but I wish he were my WR3 instead of my WR2.
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I didn't want to put McCaffrey here because even if he misses some time I have Elijah Mitchell on my bench ready to start in his place. So I chose Ridley. His highlights have been great out of Jaguars camp, and I have a sense that he will buck a six-year trend of Doug Pederson-coached receivers falling under a 22% target per route run rate (meaning he'll see a lot of targets from game to game). But if he struggles, or gets hurt, then my receiving corps clearly will be a major issue. I need Ridley to regain his form from 2020.
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