A lot has changed in the month since we last did this pick-by-pick exercise in a PPR version. But, at least from the four spot, a few things haven't changed at all. Just like our last run, I took Tyreek Hill at pick 1.04 and Christian Kirk at pick 5.04. I also landed Samaje Perine in both drafts, though he went a round later in the most recent version due to the positive developments around Javonte Williams' knee.
I'm higher on Hill than most, and there's a good chance you'll have a shot at him picking anywhere in the top seven. Last year was the fifth year in the past six that Hill has finished in the top seven, and he's been top four in four of those seasons. A second year for the Dolphins under Mike McDaniel has me believing that Hill has a real shot at his stated goal of 2,000 yards if Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy. And unlike Jaylen Waddle, Hill's production didn't fall off a cliff entirely when Tagovailoa was out last year.
Kirk is coming off a career year in his first year in Jacksonville but it seems like everyone expects serious regression with Calvin Ridley joining the team. I do not. I would expect Ridley to soak up more of Marvin Jones' and Zay Jones' 2022 production while Kirk continues to dominate from the slot. He may see slightly fewer targets, but I would also expect better efficiency with Ridley drawing coverage. In full PPR, I'd be happy with Kirk in Round 4, but knowing who I was drafting with I knew I could wait another round.
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Here's my squad from the fourth pick:
1.04: Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
2.09: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
3.04: Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
4.09: Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN
5.04: Christian Kirk, WR, JAC
6.09: Najee Harris, RB, PIT
7.04: Gabe Davis, WR, BUF
8.09: David Njoku, TE, CLE
9.04: Samaje Perine, RB, DEN
10.09: Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL
11.04: Jeff Wilson, RB, MIA
12.09: Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
13.04 D.J. Chark, WR, CAR
14.09: Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN
Taking a quarterback in Round 2 is something new to me this year, but when Mahomes is there at the end of the round I can't help myself. That may have contributed to me avoiding Mark Andrews in Round 3, and I may regret that. But one thing that allowed was for me to build an elite wide receiver corps with three of my top 20 PPR wide receivers and a fourth, Gabe Davis, who I think has sneaky post-hype sleeper appeal. If Davis and Josh Allen are 100% this season, I would not be surprised if he lives up to the hype he received last August.
One thing that probably stands out is the Jeff Wilson selection in Round 11. This draft took place before the Dolphins placed Wilson on IR, and he should not be drafted in a standard draft unless you have IR spots. Still, while that one stings, the Raheem Mostert selection more than makes up for it. Mostert should sneak into Round 9 with this news.
One last note, Tyjae Spears has become one of my favorite late-round dart throws. All he has in front of him is a 29-year-old back with about a million miles on the tires and Spears has looked explosive in the preseason. Hopefully I won't need Mostert or Spears because of the gift that fell in my lap in Round 6.
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It's a strange thing to call a guy a bust from April through August and then be this excited about landing him, but that just highlights that busts are based on ADP. Harris' ADP is still in Round 3, and I don't like him at all there. But he has serious upside in Round 6 even if Jaylen Warren does handle passing downs. The Steelers are likely to give Harris at least a month as the lead back, and his worst-case scenario probably looks like Ezekiel Elliott's role from last year. This Steelers offense and offensive line look much improved, which gives Harris double-digit touchdown upside. There is a risk Warren takes his job by midseason, but at this cost that risk is baked in.
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I'm not actually that worried about Higgins, although his injury history may go slightly underreported. My bigger concern is the FOMO about taking him over Andrews here. If Andrews and Lamar Jackson bounce back, the gap between him and David Njoku could be five-plus points per game, and as long as Ja'Marr Chase is healthy it is unlikely Higgins is giving me that kind of edge on the other WR2s in the league.
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The Vikings are going to give Mattison a chance to play the full Dalvin Cook role in the offense. If he keeps that role and stays healthy, he's going to smash at a Round 4 cost and come close to finishing as a top-12 running back. That would make this team. But there are a long history of backups who failed once they tried the feature role on, and I may not have the running back depth needed to sustain if Mattison flames out.
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