Now that Josh Jacobs has signed his contract and reported to the Raiders, what is the argument against him supposed to be? He was the No. 3 RB in Fantasy a year ago and returns to the same offense, with zero remaining concerns about his availability for Week 1 and beyond, and yet his price hasn't really changed much. I'm taking the value.
In 97 drafts since news of his signing, Jacobs' ADP in NFC leagues sits at 23.9; before that, his ADP was 29.5. That's not nothing, but it still feels like a pretty steep discount, even in a season when RB prices are notably cheaper than they've historically been. He's my No. 8 overall player, and I'm happy to take him anytime he's available, such as when I got the No. 11 pick in our recent pick-by-pick series.
I took Jacobs ahead of Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb, two terrific players, but I just feel a bit better about Jacobs' workload, even if I have questions about the offense. Because, the thing about Josh McDaniels' offenses is, they've been in the top-five in RB points produced in eight of the past 11 seasons, and Jacobs seems about as locked into a high-usage role as any running back in football; that's one place where the Raiders' lack of a long-term commitment to him actually might help his chances of racking up 300-plus touches again, since they have no real reason to be concerned about the long-term ramifications there.
As for the concerns about the Raiders offense, well ...
Now, some of you will, fairly, point out that most of Josh McDaniels' offenses had Tom Brady, which made them very good offenses almost by default.
— Chris Towers …Is A Real Boy (@CTowersCBS) June 22, 2023
McDaniels' offenses consistently rank higher in PPR points for RBs than they did in overall scoring: pic.twitter.com/q7y95n5qxV
Maybe Jacobs will fall on his face in his attempts to reproduce last season's tremendous season, but I'm fine with him as a first-round pick, and thrilled if he falls any farther.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my squad from the 11th pick:
1.11: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
2.2: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
3.11: Miles Sanders, RB, Panthers
4.2: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
5.11: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
6.2: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
7.11: Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs
8.2: George Kittle, TE, 49ers
9.11: Marvin Mims, WR, Broncos
10.2: Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers
11.11: Tank Dell, WR, Texans
12.2: Zack Moss, RB, Colts
13.11: Devin Singletary, RB, Texans
14.2: Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals
And I'm thrilled to get Amon-Ra St. Brown in the second round, because he's also a first-rounder for me. Where I might have gone sideways with this team was the decision to take a second running back with my third-round pick, though. I had Sanders as my top available player there, but when I saw the likes of Breece Hall, Rachaad White, Javonte Williams, and David Montgomery still on the board when I picked again in the fifth round, all of whom are probably only slight downgrades on Sanders.
I would've been a lot better off taking a higher-end WR there, because the decision not to forced me into taking more risks at the position with my next few picks. I love Lockett, but McLaurin carries significant risk coming into the season with a toe injury; he may still play in Week 1, but he might be limited even if he does, and there's already risk here with new QB Sam Howell taking over.
Overall, I'm pretty happy with this team, but I'd feel a lot better about it with a better WR2, especially since we're starting three wide receivers. That's the risk you take in taking multiple early-round RBs, especially if you pair them with a high-end QB as well.
Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Your ultimate football draft guide
Dominate your Fantasy Football draft with our free printable Draft Kit, which gives you must-have top-200 rankings for PPR, half-PPR and non-PPR leagues, plus see the top ranked players at every position. Get average draft position data for every ranked player to help strategize before Draft Day, and keep track of your roster with our lineup builder for both snake and salary cap formats.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
Sorry!
There was an error processing your subscription.
I've got Kittle as a bust for this season, but that mostly comes down to the price it typically costs to draft him. I got him as the No. 86 pick, and I just can't complain about that. Sure, I'm worried about the fact that he had more than 40 yards in just three of his eight games with Brock Purdy as QB. But the flip side is, he had absolutely massive performances in those other three, and that's what you're hoping for from Kittle. I can live with some disappointing weeks if I'm getting huge upside outcomes from my eighth round tight end. This is a good example of how price can drastically change how you feel about a pick.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
The big question with Sanders is how much the Panthers will use him in the running game. I expect him to be a very productive runner in this offense, and there's top-12 RB upside here if the Panthers use him as a pass-catcher as much as they've said they will this offseason. If he catches even 40 passes, Sanders might be an RB1; if he disappears from the passing game the way he did in Philadelphia, he's probably just a boring low-end RB2, and a poor value where I took him. This is one where I really, really wish we had seen him in the preseason.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
I've been skeptical about the Jeudy hype this offseason, but his hamstring injury has caused him to drop quite a bit in drafts – prior to this week, he was consistently a fourth-rounder, and I got him in the sixth here. Is that enough of a discount for a guy who may not be ready to play in Week 1? I felt like I had to take the risk after eschewing the WR position early on, but if he misses multiple weeks and then takes another week or two to get up to speed, it could get me off to a really bad start, since I'll be relying on low-floor sleepers like Mims and Moore instead. Of course, if Jeudy is ready for Week 1 and plays more or less like he did down the stretch last season – he averaged 87 yards on 6.2 catches per game over the final six games after coming back from an injury. If that was real and he's healthy, this team will be just fine.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
