For 35 years, the NBA has had a 3-point line. It started in the 1979-80 season and didn't immediately take hold as a weapon. It took years before the 3-point shot was anything little more than a gimmick along the lines of the 25-point shot in MTV's old Rock'N'Jock games. Over the past 20 years or so, NBA teams have become much more hip to making the 3-point shot a staple of offense, rather than a desperation attempt.
Before the 2013-14 season, I took a look at the historic 3-point numbers we had witnessed in 2012-13. During the 2012-13 season, two teams broke the all-time record for 3-pointers made in a season. The New York Knicks and Houston Rockets broke the 2009-10 Orlando Magic's record of 841 made 3-pointers in a season. The Rockets poured in an impressive 867 made shots from long distance, while the Knicks set the new record with an astounding 891. It looked like we were going to have a team breaking down the doors of 900 made 3s in a season.
We didn't quite get that last season. There was a big regression in made 3-pointers from the previous season in terms of the very tip of the spear. The Rockets led the league in made 3s with 779, a whopping 112 fewer than the Knicks in 2012-13. The Knicks drained 759 3-pointers, which was good for seventh in the NBA last season. The rest of the league picked up the slack though.
Prior to last season, there had been 23 teams in NBA history that made at least 700 3-pointers, and five them occurred in the 2012-13 season. While nobody approached the 900 3-pointers goal I hoped for in 2013-14, 11 teams made at least 700 3-point shots. Seven of those teams made the playoffs, with the Phoenix Suns (sixth in the league at 765 makes) and the Knicks missing the 8-seed in their conferences by one game. The two teams edging them out (the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks) crossed that 700 made 3-pointers threshold.
We didn't just see a jump in terms of teams making more 3-pointers than ever before with 11 teams hitting at least 700 of them; we saw a huge spike in accuracy at the top as well. From 2012-13 to 2013-14, the average accuracy from 3-point range in the NBA only went up from 35.9 percent to 36 percent. However, teams averaged 130 more attempts than the previous campaign. The volume went way up and the accuracy ticked up slightly, showing a much smarter use of 3-pointers.
The accuracy from 3-point range in 2013-14 was the fifth-most accurate 3-point shooting season in NBA history. The league made 36.7 percent of its 3s in 2008-09, 36.2 percent in 2007-08, 36 percent in 1996-97 (couple of hundredths of a percent above 2013-14 percentage), and 36.7 percent of its 3s in 1995-96.
Remember though, the league shortened the 3-point line from 1994-1997 to an even 22 feet all the way around instead of just the corners, so it was a much easier shot. If you slap an asterisk on those two seasons, the 2013-14 season was really the third-most accurate in NBA history. The 2008 and 2009 seasons also had the average number of 3-pointers taken by each team 281 and 280 fewer, respectively, than last season. That's nearly 3.5 more attempts per game.
The most interesting part of what we saw with NBA 3-point accuracy last season was the historical benchmark of 38 percent. After last season, we've seen 71 teams in league history make 38 percent of their 3-pointers in a season and 58 of those teams (81.8 percent) have made the playoffs. While that number is impressive, it doesn't really account for the increase of using the 3-point shot over the last 35 years.
Two-thirds of the league last season took at least 1,600 3-pointers. Of the 10 teams attempting fewer than 1,600 3-pointers, only the New Orleans Pelicans shot higher (37.3 percent) than the 36 percent league average. The 1,600 attempts number seemed like a good floor for a historical amount of attempts while trying to attain optimal accuracy. However, we've had to lockout-shortened seasons during this time, as well, so let's adjust that floor to 19.5 3-point attempts per game (1,600 attempts over an 82-game season) and then see which teams have hit that 38 percent mark.
We've seen only 24 teams in NBA history make at least 38 percent of their 3-pointers when attempting 19.5 3s per game. We're not even getting one per season since the NBA adopted the 3-point line in 1979-80. And in 2013-14, we saw five teams attempt at least 19.5 3-pointers per game while making 38.0 percent of them. This is significant because it shows the increase in volume, accuracy, and success as an organization when you can be this deadly from downtown.
We've had 20 of those 24 teams (83.3 percent) qualify for the postseason with the 2004-05 Toronto Raptors, 2010-11 and 2011-12 Golden State Warriors, and last season's Los Angeles Lakers all missing the playoffs in their respective seasons.
The average winning percentage for these 24 teams is 63.6 percent, giving them an average record of 52-30 in a full 82-game season. Nine of those 24 teams have reached the conference finals, three teams have reached the NBA Finals, and two of those teams have become champions. This is a trend that didn't start until 12 years ago and has really seen the increase go up exponentially in the last 10 years (since the defensive rule changes that opened up the perimeter on offense).
We saw one-sixth of the NBA accomplish this last season, and with the emphasis on 3-point shooting and perimeter marksmen being more valued than ever at a premium, projecting which teams can achieve this can also be projecting teams that are virtual locks for the playoffs. The way you create such accuracy at such a high volume of attempts is by moving the ball, having balance and spacing on offense, and moving without the ball. Basically, watch the San Antonio Spurs' offense and try to mimic the basic tenets of what they do on that end of the floor.
You end up adding a significantly more efficient offense that can ease having empty trips so often during any given game. As the 2013-14 Lakers proved, you still need to be able to play a lick of defense or it won't mean anything, but being able to be accurate and a high volume shooting team from outside is key in today's NBA.
The number of 38.0 percent 3-point shooting teams jumped from 19 to 24 last season. How high does it jump next season? Will we only see two teams accomplish this again like in 2012-13 or will more teams have figured out that ruling the perimeter means controlling the tempo and identity of the game so many coaches want to put their fingerprints on? Will defenses find new systems to adjust to cutting down on the number of quality shots?
The 3-point shot is no longer a gimmick or a fad; it is simply the way of the NBA. You don't live or die by the 3-point shot anymore. You simply thrive on it.
