Now that Clint Capela has re-signed with the Houston Rockets and Carmelo Anthony has finalized his buyout with the Atlanta Hawks, it's worth taking stock of where last season's 65-win juggernaut is today. Here, I argue for patience with this Rockets roster and take a look at whether we should look at a couple of other fringe contenders the same way.
Houston is likely incomplete, and that's OK
Rockets general manager Daryl Morey believes executives can be eager to finish their offseason business early and escape to the Cape or San Diego. In Houston, that has not been a priority, and that has never been more obvious than this summer. Until last week, its biggest offseason transaction beyond the expected re-signing of Chris Paul was the signing of reserve wing James Ennis.
"I think teams try too much to just make everything perfect right in July," Morey said on The Bill Simmons Podcast. "You don't need your best team on July 4th. You need your best team on April 15th. So I like to keep some powder dry."
The funny thing is that this quote isn't from a recent podcast appearance. It's from last July, when Houston had made a franchise-changing move -- the Paul trade -- before free agency began. Morey was talking about the front office's decision to hold onto its bi-annual exception and a trade exception in order to maintain flexibility. It is much more useful, however, to use that lens to look at where the Rockets are now.
Houston will be one of the best teams in the league again next season, health permitting. Retaining Capela made sure of that. Morey has drawn criticism, though, because it's unclear that the team will be better than last year. In free agency the Rockets lost two of their most important defenders, Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, and there are real questions about how Anthony will fit in. It has become popular to wonder whether their seven-game conference finals series against the Golden State Warriors was their only shot at winning a title. As The Ringer's Paolo Uggetti asked, what if they have already peaked?
Maybe letting Ariza and Mbah a Moute go will haunt Houston. I'm the guy who wrote that the Warriors should poach Mbah a Moute partially in order to weaken their most threatening foe. It's also worth noting, though, the common mistakes that Morey's front office did not make this summer. The Rockets did not overpay any role players. They did not trade any future draft picks. In fact, they still have their $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel exception and the only draft pick they've lost is this year's second-rounder.
A glass-half-full accounting of the offseason: Houston avoided giving the 33-year-old Paul a full, five-year max deal. It played Capela's restricted free agency perfectly, locking him up for four years and paying him less annually than Zach LaVine. It took a low-risk shot at revitalizing Anthony in a more free-flowing system on a minimum contract. It might have found the biggest steal in the draft, if No. 46 pick De'Anthony Melton's summer league play means anything. And it's not necessarily done.
Just like every season, the Rockets figure to be players in the buyout market, and their MLE gives them an advantage. More interesting, though, is the fact that Ryan Anderson is still on the roster. The floor spacer is owed $20.4 million this season and $21.3 million next season, making him perhaps the most fascinating trade piece in the NBA. If Morey wants to add a defensive-minded wing to the team and regain some versatility, he could have a few options, provided that he is willing to surrender a first-round pick with Anderson.
How would you feel about Houston's roster if it had Kent Bazemore in Anderson's place? (The Rockets likely wouldn't have to summon Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler to talk to him this time.) What about Nicolas Batum or Marvin Williams? Maybe Morey could get Courtney Lee and Lance Thomas from New York in an Anderson deal. It is typically hard to move a big for a wing in today's NBA, but these are the kind of players who seem attainable -- if not now, then before February's trade deadline.
As things stand, Houston has one of the best starting units in the league and Eric Gordon should be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate yet again. It has lost some depth, particularly on defense, but there is upside in Anthony punishing switches, Melton potentially cracking the rotation and maybe even discovering that Zhou Qi or Isaiah Hartenstein deserves minutes in the frontcourt. As coach Mike D'Antoni said recently, the worst the Rockets will be is great. By staying flexible, Morey has bet on himself and his staff being able to pull something else off and raise their ceiling. If you are annoyed that they haven't closed the gap with Golden State, know that their timeline is different than yours.
Can this apply to the LeBron's Lakers?
Part of my Houston optimism is based on its track record. Everybody freaked out when it failed to sign Chris Bosh, lost Chandler Parsons and replaced Parsons with Trevor Ariza in 2014. There was plenty of skepticism when it went 41-41 in 2015-16 and added D'Antoni, Gordon and Anderson in the summer. The Los Angeles Lakers, led by Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka, have not earned the same benefit of the doubt.
Here's as far as I'll go: In the big picture, none of the Lakers' veteran journeymen -- Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, JaVale McGee, Michael Beasley -- are of much consequence. Yes, they will play this season, but they are unsigned beyond that, and nobody really expected Los Angeles to be a threat to the Warriors unless LeBron James brought another star with him. And as long as its six best players -- James, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma -- are playing 30-plus minutes a game, this team should be pretty good.
If James is willing to play some smallball 5 and run, coach Luke Walton has a (theoretically) awesome, fast, switchy lineup at his disposal. If Ball improves as a shooter, the spacing concerns could be overstated. And, like the Rockets, the Lakers' roster could look different in April than it does now. Maybe they can trade for a disgruntled star before the deadline, maybe they can just grab a helpful role player or two on the buyout market. Playing with LeBron in Los Angeles is obviously appealing to players, and that doesn't just apply in the first week of July.
I won't kill the Lakers for not going all-in and mortgaging the future for the sake of making Year 1 of the LeBron era more of a success. My main criticism is actually that they weren't patient enough in filling out the roster. They didn't need to move so quickly to pay Rondo $9 million and give Stephenson the entire $4.4 million room exception. Brook Lopez wound up signing for one year and $3.3 million with the Milwaukee Bucks. Wayne Ellington signed a one-year, $6.2 million deal with the Heat. Instead of this weird series of signings, maybe Los Angeles could have lured Mbah a Moute, Amir Johnson and Channing Frye, all of whom signed one-year deals elsewhere. Oh well.
What about Toronto?
The Toronto Raptors are in a completely different position than either of the aforementioned teams by virtue of Kawhi Leonard's 2019 free agency. They have a better shot than the Lakers do of making the NBA Finals this coming season, and there is urgency to convince Leonard that he should spend his prime in Toronto despite the fact there are no Wingstops in Canada.
There is a parallel to the Rockets here: the Raptors are under pressure to be better than they were last season. Unlike Houston, though, the front office has already accomplished this -- Leonard and Danny Green will make them fearsome defensively and improve their spacing. Still, it is worth asking whether or not Masai Ujiri's front office might make more moves.
Toronto still has a $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel exception, just like Houston. It also has two trade exceptions, worth $2.9 million and $2.5 million, respectively. Coach Nick Nurse recently said the team has "six starters right now" -- Kyle Lowry, Green, Leonard, O.G. Anunoby, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas -- and, while this can be a nice luxury, it also an opportunity to consolidate talent. It is somewhat stunning that, almost 18 months after Ibaka arrived in a trade, both he and Valanciunas are still teammates.
To be clear, the Raptors don't have to do anything. They are extremely deep, versatile and balanced, and now that LeBron is out of the way, they should be expected to make the conference finals. If the front office really wants to make the most of this season, though, it will remain open for business.
Maybe that means easing the frontcourt logjam by trading Valanciunas or Ibaka. Maybe it means trying to nab someone like Khris Middleton before he hits free agency. Maybe it means including Anunoby or Pascal Siakam in offers for genuine superstars. It's hard to imagine Ujiri trading Lowry after saying goodbye to DeMar DeRozan, but might his age and the presence of Fred VanVleet and Delon Wright make him available in the right deal?
Some laughed at the idea of Toronto's front office being able to acquire Leonard. Now it's clear that, when it comes to this front office, nothing should be ruled out.
