This offseason has been the most dramatic one in NFL history, but it's about time we start looking at bets for the 2022 season. Free agency is mostly over, the NFL Draft has come and gone and now teams are hitting the field for organized workouts. A lot can happen in the next few months, but if you're looking for some value, now is the time to strike.
Win totals are an interesting futures bet. Some people don't like having their money tied up for months, but I know others in media who love win totals more than your week-to-week ATS plays. I've noticed that virtually everyone likes to bet Overs when it comes to win totals as opposed to Unders, and I'm the same way.
We had a pretty incredible run last year. I went 6-1 on the win totals I published for CBS Sports, and also told you to bet the Los Angeles Rams at +1300 to win the Super Bowl on Feb. 8!
Let's jump into the picks.
All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
New Orleans Saints Over 8 (-130)
The Saints won nine games last year despite not having Jameis Winston for more than half the season, and they again swept the season series with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Winston looked much better in 2021 compared to his last season as a starter in 2019. He won five of seven starts and threw 14 touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions. I understand if people don't see Winston as a top-tier signal-caller, but you have to keep in mind that he finally has a wide receiving corps to work with thanks to the additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and the return of Michael Thomas.
In the NFC South, the Saints could sweep the season series against the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. Maintaining health is obviously going to be important for this team, but I have Dennis Allen's squad winning at least nine games in 2022.
Baltimore Ravens Over 9.5 (-130)
This team won eight games last year in what was a forgettable campaign headlined by injuries across the board. Lamar Jackson is 37-12 as the starter in Baltimore, and the Ravens have won at least 11 games in both of his two seasons as the full-time starter before 2021. There's no doubt that the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns are going to be solid in 2022, but the Ravens are returning J.K. Dobbins, improved the offensive line and made several impressive additions on the defensive side of the ball in the draft. I don't think Baltimore flies over this win total, but I do have the Ravens winning 10 games.
Miami Dolphins Over 8.5 (-135)
The Dolphins won nine games last year with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and with Tua Tagovailoa missing five starts. You're telling me Vegas really doesn't think they can win at least nine games in 2022 with all of the great additions they made? Head coach Mike McDaniel is one of the more intriguing up-and-coming figures in this league, the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill and Ced Wilson at receiver and Connor Williams and Terron Armstead on the offensive line. I'm aware that there are some questions about Tagovailoa, but maybe that's the reason why Miami signed so many legitimate running backs in free agency. If Tagovailoa struggles, the Dolphins should still be able to rely on this new ground game. That's how McDaniel had to operate last year with the San Francisco 49ers.
The Dolphins have won at least nine games in each of the last two seasons, and they could be the second-best team in the AFC East in 2022.
Seattle Seahawks Under 6 (-120)
I predicted the Seahawks would take a step backward in 2021, and even said they had the worst roster in the division entering last season. That was a pretty hot take for a team that hadn't finished lower than second in the NFC West since 2011. I could talk about Seattle's QB situation entering this season or how this defense isn't one of the best in the league, but there are two factors driving my decision to take the Under: Seattle resides in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, and it has to face the other toughest division in the NFL in the AFC West. That's 10 games where Seattle likely won't be favored. Throw in the fact that the Seahawks play the Buccaneers in Tampa, and that only helps my cause. Maybe the Seahawks adding Baker Mayfield could hurt my gamble, but it's just hard to see Seattle winning seven games in 2022.
Philadelphia Eagles Over 9 (-145)
Yeah, it's a bit juicy, but this line opened at 8.5 in some places and could climb to 9.5. The Eagles went 9-8 last season with first-year head coach Nick Sirianni, and all this team did this offseason was get better. Philly swung a trade for star wide receiver A.J. Brown, but I'm more excited about the defensive side of the ball. Kyzir White, Haason Reddick and James Bradberry were all great free agent pickups, and then the Eagles added Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean in the draft. I don't love playing -145 juice, but some sportsbooks will let you parlay that with another win total or just another bet. Take it before it moves.
