From 7-9 to feelin' fine, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled off an incredible turnaround and capped off the 2020 season with a Super Bowl victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady once again proved that age is just a number, Rob Gronkowski turned back the clock and caught two touchdown passes and the defense dominated Patrick Mahomes all night. While the Buccaneers are currently on top of the NFL world, what are the chances they run it back next year?
According to William Hill Sportsbook, the Buccaneers have the second-best odds to win it all again at +900, which is tied with the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs have the best odds to win Super Bowl LVI. Check out the odds for all 32 teams, here.
It's understandable why the Chiefs, Packers, Buccaneers and then the Buffalo Bills are listed as favorites to win next year, but what about some value picks? Is it possible another team comes out of the woodwork due to moves made in free agency or through the draft? Remember, the Buccaneers had 50/1 odds to win Super Bowl LV last February before Brady, Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown were acquired. Let's take a look at five long-shot bets that should be worth sprinkling a little bit of money on.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Los Angeles Rams +1300
All four NFC West teams could be considered good value picks for Super Bowl LVI, but I'm intrigued by the Rams. They made the playoffs this past season with a 10-6 record despite inconsistent play at the quarterback position, and even defeated the division rival Seattle Seahawks in Super Wild-Card Weekend. Having the No. 1 defense in the league is obviously a huge plus, but the Rams also upgraded under center by trading Jared Goff, two first-round picks and a third to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford. Improving the quarterback position was important for the Rams this offseason, as it improves their ceiling overall and could open up the playbook for Sean McVay. This is a team that made the Super Bowl just two years ago, and Stafford appears to have plenty of tread left on the tires.
There's no doubt that the NFC West is going to be incredibly competitive in 2021, but according to SportsLine Data Scientist Stephen Oh, the Rams still have the best chance to win the division at 44.5 percent. If they win the division and get that home-field advantage in the playoffs, they could end up being the team to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
2. Kansas City Chiefs +550
I know that this isn't a technical "value pick" since they have better odds than all other 31 NFL teams, but the Chiefs really could have better odds than +550 to win the Super Bowl next year. My argument is that Kansas City at +550 is indeed actually a value pick. A big reason for their sorry performance on Sunday were injuries along the offensive line, as star left tackle Eric Fisher went down with an Achilles injury in the AFC Championship Game and they were already without Mitchell Schwartz due to a back injury. Mahomes was under duress for the entire matchup, and was sacked three times. We all know that the Chiefs are going to be right back in the mix next year, and this loss could just motivate Mahomes moving forward. I'm sorry, but I have to throw the Chiefs on this list. They will always be a value pick at the odds they are currently listed at.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers +2800
The Steelers began the 2020 season with an 11-0 record, but inconsistencies on offense as well as injuries led to a 1-4 finish. Oh says assuming the Steelers' defense is healthy and they keep Ben Roethlisberger at a much-reduced cost, they present good value as 5.2 percent of his simulations have Pittsburgh winning the Super Bowl. In his first full season since undergoing major elbow surgery, Roethlisberger completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 3,803 yards, 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The offense definitely became stagnant at times, and Roethlisberger didn't always look like himself, but Pittsburgh also had to make up for having the worst rushing attack in the league. The Steelers averaged a league-worst 84.4 rushing yards per game in 2020, and improving that will certainly be a goal in 2021. With 11 teams having better odds to win the Super Bowl next year, the Steelers are most definitely a good value pick here.
4. Indianapolis Colts +2500
The Colts are once again searching for a new quarterback this offseason, and their potential as Super Bowl LVI champs could hinge on that decision. With Deshaun Watson in the same division it's unlikely they will be able to swing a deal for him, and missing out on Stafford hurt as well. But, when you look at this team as a whole, they are ready to compete. The Colts had the No. 8 defense in terms of yards allowed per game (332.1) and the No. 2 rush defense in 2020. They have stars like Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner, one of the best offensive lines in the league, legitimate wide receivers in T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman Jr. and also appear to have a feature back in Jonathan Taylor. The quarterback position is one that should give you pause, but the Colts are making the playoffs in 81.6 percent of Oh's simulations and winning the division in 64.7 percent of sims.
5. Carolina Panthers +6000
Let's get crazy. The Panthers finished with a 5-11 record for the second straight season, but All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey was hampered all year by injuries and then free-agent addition quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was a dud. While Watson has plenty of interest around the league, the Panthers are reportedly expected to be especially aggressive in acquiring his services. If the Panthers get Watson without having to give up McCaffrey, this offense could be something special. D.J. Moore is a versatile weapon, Robby Anderson is a nice No. 1 wideout and Curtis Samuel could end up re-signing as well. Additionally, this defense really came on late in the season. It's a young group, as Matt Rhule spent all of his draft picks last year on the defensive side of the ball, but he nailed the Jeremy Chinn pick and Derrick Brown also has a ton of potential. The New Orleans Saints will likely be transitioning to another quarterback, which would leave the Buccaneers as the Panthers' main competition in the NFC South. Still, the Bucs won the Super Bowl as a wild card this year, and the Panthers could potentially do the same IF they acquire Watson.
