After a little re-shuffling of the schedule, we saw Week 5 in the NFL come to a close with a rare Tuesday night game as the Titans defeated the Buffalo Bills, handing Sean McDermott's club their first loss of the season. Because of all that movement with the schedule due to COVID-19 complications, we have no Thursday night contest this week, but we do have another doubleheader on deck for Monday night, which is something I've growing to love more and more each week we have it. And with the Patriots, Chiefs and Titans continuing to turn out no new positive tests to this point, Week 6 seems to be on track. Phew!
In Week 5, we were just able to nudge over the .500 mark on our picks going 7-6 ATS, but fared much better on the moneyline sporting at 10-4 record. As we turn the page to Week 6, I did find myself liking a number of the favorites at their current lines. With that being the case, it'll be wise to jump on any of these matchups that catch your eye early before there is any significant movement as it relates to that spread. Of course, there are a handful of games that are especially appealing to me, so without further ado, let's jump into this week's crop of picks starting with my Locks of the Week.
Who'll win and cover in Week 6? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join host Will Brinson to break down every game on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
Locks of the Week
Chicago at Carolina
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point spread: Carolina -2.5
Carolina has been a great team to ride as of late, covering in three consecutive games coming into Week 6. Teddy Bridgewater has also been a bettors best friend whenever he starts under center, owning a 30-9 ATS record for his career. That 77 cover percentage is the best out of any starting quarterback since 2000 (min 20 starts). Bridgewater is also 17-4 ATS after a SU win. He'll now take that promising record and put it on the line when he faces a Chicago team that was able to get its first win with Nick Foles as the starter last time out. While the Bears defense will be a challenge, Bridgewater has covered six-straight games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bears currently own the longest active ATS losing streak when given extended rest (0-6).
Pick: Carolina -2.5
Score prediction: Carolina 23, Chicago 17
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L.A. Rams at San Francisco
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread: L.A. Rams -3.5
Jimmy Garoppolo clearly didn't look like himself after coming back from a high ankle sprain that sidelined him for the past two weeks. The Niners QB threw two picks in the first half as the Dolphins dropped 30 points walking into the locker room at halftime, which was essentially the ballgame. I expect those struggles to continue, which is why I'm more than happy to give up just over a field goal to San Francisco here. Not only do the Rams seem to be clicking offensively, but they have a top-10 defense in terms of DVOA. Since the start of last season, the Rams are 8-3 ATS on the road and under head coach Sean McVay are 11-6-1 in divisional games.
Pick: L.A. Rams -3.5
Score prediction: L.A. Rams 24, San Francisco 17
Baltimore at Philadelphia
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Baltimore -8
The Eagles nearly dropping 30 points against a top-ranked Pittsburgh defense was one of the more surprising things to come out of Week 5, but I don't see it as Philly turning the tides. Carson Wentz still battled inconsistency, turning the ball over twice and was pressured on a large chunk of his dropbacks (five sacks). Meanwhile, the Ravens are still a force to be reckonded with in the AFC and have been tremendous wagers as a touchdown favorite, owning a 3-0-1 ATS record this season. Lamar Jackson is also a near lock to cover on the road. For his career, Jackson has a road ATS record of 10-2-1. That 83 cover percentage on the road is the second best mark since 2000 (min. 10 starts).
Pick: Baltimore -8
Score prediction: Baltimore 33, Philadelphia 13
Atlanta at Minnesota
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point spread: Minnesota -3.5
Atlanta is a team in shambles following an 0-5 start that just resulted in the firing of head coach Dan Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff. They now go against a Vikings team that has had their number under head coach Mike Zimmer, owning a 4-0 SU and ATS record against Atlanta over his tenure. Minnesota has also been able to bounce back nicely following a SU loss with Kirk Cousins under center. Under those circumstances, Cousins' Vikings are 11-2.
Pick: Minnesota -3.5
Score prediction: Minnesota 28, Atlanta 20
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
4:25 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread: Green Bay -2
No Davante Adams, no problem for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback has continued to light the NFL on fire even without his No. 1 receiver for the previous two games. In the latest win over Atlanta in Week 4 prior to their bye, Rodgers had tight end Robert Tonyan and running back Jamaal Williams as his No. 1 and No. 2 pass catchers and still dropped 30 points. Simply put: Rodgers finds a way to win. He's also fared well for bettors, as the Packers are 4-0 ATS to begin the year. In his career, Rodgers is 8-2-1 ATS following a bye week. It'll be a shootout, but Rodgers will come out on top.
Pick: Green Bay -2
Score prediction: Green Bay 33, Tampa Bay 28
Rest of the bunch
Detroit (-3.5) at Jacksonville
Pick: Detroit -3.5
Score prediction: Detroit 20, Jacksonville 14
Washington at N.Y. Giants (-3)
Pick: N.Y. Giants -3
Score prediction: N.Y. Giants 24, Washington 13
Denver at New England (-9)
Pick: New England -9
Score prediction: New England 27, Denver 17
Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-8)
Pick: Indianapolis -8
Score prediction: Indianapolis 24, Cincinnati 13
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5
Score prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 21
N.Y. Jets at Miami (-8.5)
Pick: Miami -8.5
Score prediction: Miami 28, N.Y. Jets 17
Kansas City (-3) at Buffalo
Pick: Kansas City -3
Score prediction: Kansas City 30, Buffalo 24
Arizona (-2.5) at Dallas
Pick: Dallas and the points
Score prediction: Dallas 27, Arizona 24
Against the spread in Week 5: 7-6
ATS overall: 41-34-1
Straight up in Week 5: 10-4
SU overall: 52-24-1