Week 14 NFL odds, picks: Fading Saints, Chiefs, Patriots and more of Pete Prisco's best bets

It's time to go to the 'dogs. Start barking. After a 3-2 mark last week with my Best Bets, upping my record to 32-30-3 as part of Team OddsShark in the Westgate Super Contest, I am taking all underdogs this week. I am taking some so-so teams to cover against some good teams, which is always risky, but I think it's the right move to go in that direction.

I did consider taking a few favorites -- like the Broncos and Chargers -- but in the end I decided I liked the five 'dogs more. So let's keep the hot streak going with another good week of best bets.

Bark, dogs, bark.

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Ravens +6.5 at Chiefs

I can't wait to watch the Ravens defense match up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game. The Ravens love to blitz, and I think that's the right way to attack Mahomes. Go down swinging. The Chiefs defense has issues, which is why Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco or whoever can keep the game close. The Chiefs will win it, but the Ravens will get the cover.

Buccaneers +8 vs. Saints

It's hard to believe the Bucs beat the Saints way back in Week 1. That was a different time. Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting for the Bucs at quarterback, while it's Jameis Winston now. The Saints have made big strides on defense since then, so it won't be as high scoring as that one. But both teams will get their points and the Bucs will keep it close.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 14? And which playoff contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Falcons +5.5 at Packers

This is another game where I think there will be a lot of points. The weather could be a factor, but neither of the two defenses is very good. That should lead to big days for Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, who will be looking to show he can succeed now that Mike McCarthy is gone. The Packers will win a high-scoring game, but it's close.

Cardinals +2.5 vs. Lions

The Cardinals showed me something last week in beating Green Bay. They are still fighting. The Lions have been bad the past six weeks, and I think this is the week it really shows up. They are said to be tiring of coach Matt Patricia's ways, which could lead to a flat showing here. The Cardinals will win this outright.

Dolphins +7.5 vs. Patriots

Tom Brady is 7-9 in his career on the road against Miami and the Patriots have had major issues winning in South Florida. I think that shows in this one. The Patriots will still win the game, but it's going to be close. Miami is fighting for a playoff spot and a victory here will go a long way to getting one. In the end, though, Brady will win it, but Miami hangs around. 

Listen to Pete Prisco, Will Brinson and R.J. White break down all their Week 14 picks against the spread on the Pick Six Podcast.

CBS Sports Senior Writer

Pete Prisco has covered the NFL for three decades, including working as a beat reporter in Jacksonville for the Jaguars. When he's not watching game tape, you can find Pete on Twitter or dreaming of an... Full Bio

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