The year of the backup quarterback in the NFL is, quite likely, going to make life difficult for a number of veteran passers come 2020. Already within the agent community there is some fretting going on about the upcoming quarterback market, where there will almost certainly be an overabundance of supply and insufficient demand.

And even if you only hung around Econ 101 long enough to get a syllabus you know what that means: deflating price tags for the most important position in all of professional team sports. Mind you, this has nothing to do with young guns like Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott, who will cash in one way or another (even if it means a franchise tag for Prescott should his representatives not take the bird in hand, as I would have back in August). Those guys will continue to have soaring salaries.

But for anyone not in that tier, it could be slim pickings come March.

Marcus Mariota's been benched and Jameis Winston just had a five-INT game, so what does their future look like? Brady Quinn and Ryan Wilson joined Will Brinson to break everything down on the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and be sure to subscribe right here

Consider how many teams have invested a first-round pick on quarterbacks in the past four years -- 14 in all, nearly half the league -- and how many of them have panned out, with many of them already securing hefty extensions. Then consider how many teams have found potential hidden gems this season due to the rash of injuries to starters, or had a young veteran boost his free agent stock (Jacksonville, New Orleans, Carolina, potentially Pittsburgh). Then consider all of the teams that are plenty comfortable with their current starter who is years from free agency. And also keep in mind that there will likely be at least four quarterbacks taken in the first round this season, with several of them starting right away.

Yeah, all of a sudden it's easy to foresee a musical-chairs scenario with not enough decent-paying seats out there for QBs -- especially when guys like Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen are showing they belong on the field, and with Jacoby Brissett shining. The heady days of Brock Osweiler getting $32 million guaranteed because he had two functional arms, and Nick Foles getting $50 million fully guaranteed because, well, the Jags I suppose didn't realize they were bidding against themselves, are over, folks.

At most you could make the case that nine teams could be in the market for a starting QB (frankly, it won't be that many) in 2020. And that number would include mass retirements, mind you. Realistically, maybe the actual market is a half-dozen teams. Here is how I would break that down, into three subsets:

Definitely need a QB

Titans: It's over for Marcus Mariota, and Ryan Tannehill is not the long-term answer.

Buccaneers: See above item on Titans and substitute Jameis Winston for Mariota and Blaine Gabbert for Tannehill. Man, those truly are totally interchangeable sentences.

Dolphins: Tankin' for Tua!  

Bengals: Rookie head coach who is a QB guru and Andy Dalton with one year left on an easy-to-trade, team-friendly deal. They really like fourth-round pick Ryan Finley, but also might go 0-16 and be in position to select a generational talent first overall.

Might be a stretch, but ...

Bears: Mitchell Trubisky is under fire as he returns from injury with a defense built to win a Super Bowl right now.

Broncos: Drew Lock might be the next guy, and John Elway did use a second round pick on him, but this looks like a redshirt year and Denver might end up picking high again.

Depends on Father Time

Patriots: Tom Brady wants to play until age 45 and probably will, but might another Lombardi Trophy sate his unquenchable thirst?

Saints: Drew Brees says the same thing, but at age 41 next year and with a title in reach this season, you never know.

Chargers: Philip Rivers most likely signs an extension there next year, but with a large family and with that team possibly at a crossroads, you have to consider he might look to life beyond football.


So, yeah, maybe as all of that shakes out there are six or seven teams looking for a guy, and maybe three or four that don't end up addressing it at the top of the draft and vigorously pursue a new starter this winter. Otherwise, it's backup options galore for NFL teams, and a market overflowing with guys who have abundant starting experience.

Check out this list of free agent options, including a bunch of guys who were picked in the first round and in many cases, in the top three picks of their draft: Bridgewater, Mariota, Winston, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Tannehill, Case Keenum, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles, Mike Glennon, to name a few. Bridgewater, just 26, is on a path to be seen as far and away the best option of that group (if Brees retires, he and/or Taysom Hill would be naturals to replace him in New Orleans, which is another reason why there won't actually be nine teams in the QB1 market). As for the rest of the players in this group, they'll almost certainly find it difficult to earn anything close to decent starter money.

That's especially since that group of players above will be viewed as poorer alternatives in many cases to what could be a flooded market of quarterbacks possibly available in trade. If Allen keeps winning games, would the Panthers move Cam Newton with one year on his deal? Other general managers are interested to find out. Would the Jaguars eat money to try to move Foles? They should.

Josh Rosen, the 10th overall pick less than two years ago, will be a trade chip for Miami. Dalton would be a natural to move with the Bengals facing a deep rebuild, whether they want to admit it or not. If Mason Rudolph or Devlin Hodges plays well enough in Pittsburgh, and with Ben Roethlisberger coming back in 2020 and with the Steelers starved for draft picks due to recent trades, they may be looking to swap a cheap QB with upside. With Jimmy Garoppolo healthy in San Fran, could Nick Mullens (who looked good at times in 2019 and has been developed well by Kyle Shanahan) be an intriguing prospect to other teams?

There could be myriad options in terms of high-end starters and compelling inexperienced quarterbacks who might be the next to break out the way Minshew, Allen and Bridgewater are this year. It is a copycat league, after all. It's not going unnoticed around the league, where teams may have the hammer when it comes to finding a bridge starter or potential long-term solution. More than a few quarterbacks are in for a substantial change in the kind of compensation they are accustomed to. The numbers are not on their side.