This week's Hey Nineteen begins with a viewing guide. Saturday brings the seventh iteration of the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Preview special, which will air on CBS at 12:30 p.m. ET. Immediately after, I'll interview selection chair Chris Reynolds (Bradley's athletic director) on CBS Sports HQ. The selection committee, which is meeting in person right now in the lead-up to Saturday's top-16 unveiling, will go through the exact same deliberations again in less than three weeks when it meets for the real deal in fielding the 68-team bracket.
This show has proven to be an exercise in reliable forecasting at the top, and thankfully it's only a one-time thing. (College football's weekly dedication to the concept is actually a negative.) Each year since the show's inception (2020 being the obvious exception), one of the No. 1 seeds from February or March went on to win the national title. And without fail, three of the four top seeds in February held their position on Selection Sunday.
Here's a scan of how February fed into March at the top of the bracket over the past seven years:
2017
Early No. 1 seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Baylor and Gonzaga
Actual No. 1 seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga and North Carolina
National champion: North Carolina
2018
Early No. 1 seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Purdue
Actual No. 1 seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Kansas
National champion: Villanova
2019
Early No. 1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee and Gonzaga
Actual No. 1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga and North Carolina
National champion: Virginia
2020
Early No. 1 projected seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga and San Diego State
Actual No. 1 seeds: No tournament (Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton were projected Nos. 1)
National champion: No tournament
2021
Early No. 1 projected seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Ohio State
Actual No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Illinois
National champion: Baylor
2022
Early No. 1 projected seeds: Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Kansas
Actual No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
National champion: Kansas
Purdue, Alabama, Kansas and Houston are poised to be 1-seeds on Saturday, and it feels close to a lock that at least three of those schools will be perched just as high again 24 days from now on Selection Sunday.
Hey Nineteen Power Rankings
Reminder: My rankings are not solely about whom I think is "best." This is a weekly encapsulation of the 19 hottest, most successful and/or most *interesting* teams, combining team quality with win quality but also having no shame for recency bias and rewarding significant winning streaks. All records shown are vs. D-I competition.
| 1 | |
| Record: 23-2 | Last week: 7. It can only be Houston at No. 1 now. There is no one else with a case this week. Our in-house statisticians at CBS Sports ran simulations earlier this week on college hoops futures, and the Cougars are the most likely national champ as of now, winning in a whopping nearly 20% of those simulations. Houston has effectively replaced Gonzaga in this respect. The Coogs are at SMU tonight, then have a good one awaiting in H-Town on Sunday vs. Memphis. | |
| 2 | |
| Record: 20-4 | Last week: 4. I'm not too proud to admit I don't know how exactly to handle the Wahoos. This doesn't feel like the No. 2 team on any type of power rankings list, no matter how you'd prefer to assemble said list. UVa narrowly won on the road against 3-23 Louisville on Wednesday, but Tony Bennett's team is 10-1 in its last 11, which is better than most other teams in these power rankings. Winning matters above all, and this team is proving it has the DNA to win in different ways. | |
| 3 | |
| Record: 22-4 | Last week: 1. I'm not dinging the Tide for losing as an underdog against a good Tennessee team, but I will note that this tantalizing squad does have four losses by a combined 58 points. And it scored a season-low 59 on Wednesday. It can still win the title, but it's maybe not the heavy Final Four fave that some believe it to be. With Alabama's loss, Eastern Washington (Big Sky) and Oral Roberts (Summit League) are the only undefeateds left in conference play. | |
| 4 | |
| Record: 23-3 | Last week 2. There's a non-zero chance Purdue is still the best overall team in college hoops, but it's slotted into the No. 4 spot after losing two of its past three. Thursday night brings a curious game in College Park against Maryland, which pushed Purdue to an uncomfortable 58-55 ending in the Boilers' favor on Jan. 22. I want it on the record that I still will not be fading this team even if it gets dropped by the Terps tonight. | |
| 5 | |
| Record: 21-4 | Last week: 9. The Bruins are 12-2 in Pac-12 competition, their best mark since 2007-08, and they're highly likely to get to 14-2 thanks to Stanford and Cal coming to LA this weekend. The Pac-12 isn't affording a lot of high-end results for the dossier, but I don't think that's impacting UCLA's ceiling, which is national championship-good. | |
| 6 | |
| Record: 20-6 | Last week: 10. If you've been keeping up with the Hey Nineteen, you know that I've been high on the Bears for well over a month now. This team can still get a No. 1 seed if it keeps this up. BU is 10-1 in its last 11 and playing arguably the best basketball in the country over the last four weeks. LJ Cryer had a career-best eight 3-pointers in Baylor's see-ya-later 79-67 win over WVU on Monday. | |
| 7 | |
| Record: 21-5 | Last week: 12. The Jayhawks passed their Oklahoma State test with flying colors on Monday, logging a season-best 26 assists against an elite defense and a Pokes team that was finding a groove over the previous three weeks. Brandon Miller is the best freshman in college basketball, but there's little debate that Gradey Dick, who had a season-high 26 points vs. the Pokes, is No. 2. With how he plays and how Bill Self uses him, Dick could be one of the biggest names of the NCAA Tournament. | |
| 8 | |
| Record: 21-6 | Last week: 11. The Big East continues to thrill. What a win Wednesday for Marquette, which holds sole possession of first place after slipping past shorthanded Xavier 69-68. Shaka Smart's roster-building philosophy was the lead item of this week's Court Report; in it, Smart spoke more openly on the record about the transfer portal than he's been at any point since getting to MU. Wednesday's win also marked the first time Marquette has logged a victory over every Big East team in the same season. | |
| 9 | |
| Record: 21-5 | Last week: 3. The Gaels, still a top-10 team in predictive metrics, have a road game Thursday night against San Diego. A win there, and I wonder if SMC might have just enough to barely sneak into Saturday's top 16 as the last 4-seed. My lean is no, but I feel like we'll have at least one seeding call that's ripe for debate. | |
| 10 | |
| Record: 22-2 | Last week: 13. With so many teams continuing to compile losses, FAU is just nonchalantly blending into this noisy college hoops environment. No, the Owls aren't one of the 10 best teams in the sport, but they're absolutely one of the 10 hottest. The Owls are averaging 37.5 bench points this season, the most in college hoops. | |
| 11 | |
| Record: 21-5 | Last week: 19. Hurricanes are no longer a secret. Jordan Miller has grown into one of the best fifth-year players in the country, and with 15.0 ppg and 5.8 rpg, he might be the most underrated wing in America. The U's win at UNC on Monday gave the program four road victories over the Tar Heels in the past 12 years. The only other school to do that is Duke (six). And Miami's 16 wins vs. Duke and UNC since 2011-12 is second only to Virginia's 18 in that timespan. | |
| 12 | |
| Record: 20-6 | Last week: 6. The Longhorns are 1-2 in their last three and 3-3 in their last six, but they do own wins over Baylor and Kansas State in that stretch. At 9-4, UT is tied with Kansas and Baylor atop the Big 12 standings. I don't know if he'll wind up there in a month, but as of today I would have Marcus Carr (17.2 points, 4.0 assists, 40.1 3-PT%) as a Third Team All-American. | |
| 13 | |
| Record: 20-5 | Last week: 18. If the Zags are to continue their streak of in-season bracket reveal appearances for a seventh straight time, they can't get swept by Loyola Marymount. GU plays at the Lions' den on Thursday night. LMU last beat Gonzaga two times in a row in 1991. Gonzaga is 13-0 when Julian Strawther scores at least 14 points and 8-5 when he doesn't. A win probably has the Bulldogs on the 3-line come Saturday. | |
| 14 | |
| Record: 19-5 | Last week: 15. The Aztecs got their eighth straight win vs. Fresno State late Wednesday night by escaping on the road. I stayed up to the bitter end of that 45-43 mishap. But, you can't deny the record. Brian Dutcher's team has won nine of its past 10 road games and established itself as the Mountain West's best hope for a No. 6 seed or better. | |
| 15 | |
| Record: 18-8 | Last week: 14 . For IU to rally from a 21-point deficit at Northwestern on Wednesday night, only to come up a point short, was still encouraging. Northwestern (which is on a heater right now but just narrowly missed these rankings) is having itself a landmark season, but I'd still rate the Hoosiers as the second-best team in the Big Ten — and the metrics agree. NU fans don't want to hear it, though, since their team owns a (rare) season sweep of the Hoosiers | |
| 16 | |
| Record: 22-4 | Last week: 5. The Wildcats will win at least four more games this season, that I can guarantee you. When that happens, Tommy Lloyd will set the record for most victories in the first two years of a head coaching career. He's at 55 right now and will surpass Bill Guthridge's record of 58 in the next 2-3 weeks. Arizona has one loss in the past month, a bizarre defeat at Stanford last weekend. What was that about? | |
| 17 | |
| Record: 17-9 | Last week: 16. The Bluejays' valiant double-OT effort at Providence on Tuesday was good enough to keep 'em around these parts for another week. That loss, Creighton's first since Jan. 11, meant the Friars (5-4 in their past nine) split the season series. The Bluejays go to St. John's on Saturday and then host Marquette on Tuesday, a game that could be the final separator for Big East champ. | |
| 18 | |
| Record: 20-6 | Last week: 17. The Volunteers' defensive performance against No. 1 Alabama is precisely why this team has one of the best troika of wins of any team this season. Tennessee beat Kansas on a neutral by 14 and Texas in Knoxville by 11. Plus, it held the Crimson Tide to a season-low 59 points, doing so without Julian Phillips and Josiah-Jordan James. Can it really sway some hearts and kick Kentucky around in Lexington this Saturday? | |
| 19 | |
| Record: 19-7 | Last week: NR. I can't tell you Pitt is one of the 20 best teams right now, but I do know it's having one of the best four-week stretches in the sport. The Panthers have won six straight and eight of nine, vaulting them to the top of the ACC with Virginia. Though the Panthers didn't crack the national rankings this week (the program was last ranked in 2016), Jeff Capel's team is receiving plenty of love right here thanks to seven road wins this season. Next: at Virginia Tech on Saturday, then hosting Georgia Tech on Tuesday. Pitt is three victories away from its winningest season since 2013-14. H2P! | |