The Process had a good week last week, going 5-1 and nailing its Lock of the Week with Northwestern winning outright against Iowa in Iowa City. It was a nice turnaround after a stretch of three below average weeks brought The Six Pack's record down to 21-21 on the season.
This week we have even more games to choose from as the Pac-12 returns with its seven-game regular season slated to start Saturday. While I have one Pac-12 game in the column this week, I didn't want to dive too heavily into the conference without seeing how everybody looks first.
Thankfully, there were still plenty of other games on the board that I like, including both of the weekend's biggest matchups. Truthfully, some weeks, I have the two biggest games of the week in the column just because people want picks for those games. Then there are weeks like this one, where I'd have had both games in the column whether the teams involved were ranked in the top 10 or not. So let's dig in.
Games of the Week
No. 8 Florida (+3.5) vs. No. 5 Georgia (in Jacksonville, Florida): We've seen this already in 2020, haven't we? Earlier this year, when Georgia was taking on Alabama, I took the Tide because I didn't trust Georgia's offense enough to think it could keep pace with Bama. It tried to for a little while but fell short. Now we've got another situation where I doubt whether the Georgia offense can keep pace with Florida.
Of course, the difference is Alabama's defense has been better than Florida's all season long. Still, the Gators defense looked solid last week against Missouri, while Georgia's offense seems to have gotten weaker. Since scoring 24 points in the first half against Alabama, the Georgia offense has managed only 14 points in its last six quarters. I expect it'll score more against Florida on Saturday, but with a limited ceiling and the Bulldogs dealing with injuries on defense, I cannot trust them here. They might make it four in a row against the Gators, but I don't see them covering this spread. Florida 27, Georgia 21
No. 1 Clemson at No. 4 Notre Dame (Under 51.5): While I'm not playing the spread in this matchup, I can't help but think about it. Clemson is going on the road with its backup quarterback to face a Notre Dame team ranked No. 4, and it's a 5.5-point favorite. What would the spread be if Trevor Lawrence were starting and not D.J. Uiagalelei? I don't know! But as for what we're dealing with here, I'm expecting two teams with solid defenses to let their defenses lead the way Saturday.
Notre Dame's struggled to find consistency in its passing attack all season, and this Clemson pass defense doesn't strike me as the unit that will allow Ian Book to flourish. On the flip side, how much will Dabo Swinney put on Uiagalelei's plate in his first road start against an excellent Irish defense? We didn't see Uiagalelei run as much as I expected last week, but I don't know if that was due to him being banged up or if the Tigers didn't want to put any of it on tape for Notre Dame to see. Whatever the case, on Saturday night, I expect to see plenty of Travis Etienne and Uiagalelei in the run game, and for Notre Dame to rely on Kyren Williams and its backs as well. I also expect both defenses to win more often than not, so I'm going under this total. Clemson 24, Notre Dame 17
Lock of the Week
No. 23 Michigan (-3) at No. 13 Indiana: If not for the Air Force-Army game, this would've been my Lock of the Week. Michigan lost last week against Michigan State. I took the Spartans to cover because I knew that the point spread was an incredible overreaction to Michigan beating up on a depleted Minnesota and the Spartans losing to Rutgers. Still, I did not expect Michigan to lose. However, it did, and now it's only a 3-point favorite against an Indiana team it's beaten 24 straight times. Yes, Indiana is 2-0, but it was fortunate to beat Penn State, and it wasn't all that impressive against Rutgers last week. While Michigan is only 1-3-1 ATS against Indiana under Jim Harbaugh, it's won all five games and hasn't won any of them by fewer than seven points. Oh, and while it's not a reason to make the pick, for future reference, any time you see a matchup between two ranked teams, and the underdog is the home team that happens to be the higher-ranked of the two, you probably don't want to be on that team. Michigan 34, Indiana 24
Wake-Up Call of the Week
Arizona State at No. 20 USC (Under 58.5): The Pac-12 can't do anything right without doing something wrong in the process. If you look at USC's schedule this year, it's clear the conference is doing anything it can to set up the Trojans for success and increase the Pac-12's chances of snagging a playoff berth. That's smart! What isn't as smart is having one of the biggest regular-season matchups on your short schedule, a game that could ultimately settle the Pac-12 South, and playing it at 9 a.m. local time in Los Angeles! If you want to experiment with this setup, let Washington and Cal be your lab mice! Anyway, yeah, this game will start at 9 a.m. PT (noon ET), and I have a difficult time imagining either of these teams will be all that sharp to start the year at that hour. I'm expecting this to be a lower-scoring, sluggish affair. USC 27, Arizona State 24
Over of the Week
Kansas at No. 19 Oklahoma (Over 63): The Sooners are a 38-point favorite in this game, and while my principles tell me that I should take Kansas and the points, I also have principles that tell me never to bet on Kansas in football. Thankfully, there's another play here that seems almost too easy. The total is set at 63, and since Lincoln Riley took over as the offensive play-caller in 2015, Oklahoma and Kansas have met five times. In those five games, Oklahoma has scored an average of 51.8 points by itself. If we include Kansas' output, the average game between these two has featured a total of 66.4 points per game. Also, since Riley became Oklahoma's coach, the over has gone 14-8-2 in Sooners home games. Oklahoma can still win the Big 12, and if it wants to keep its slim College Football Playoff hopes alive, it has to make statements. The Sooners might go over the total here on their own. Oklahoma 59, Kansas 10
Justin Herbert's Revenge Principle of the Week
Fresno State (-11) at UNLV: All right, so this is a new principle that resulted from a conversation I had with my Cover 3 Podcast co-host Chip Patterson. We were talking about how much better Justin Herbert has looked in the NFL than he did at Oregon, where he had plenty of talent but was inconsistent. We concluded that the Chargers were letting him do what he's best at, while Oregon hemmed him in a bit offensively. It was a conversation that led to Chip suggesting we should fade the man who was Oregon's offensive coordinator and is now coaching at UNLV, Marcus Arroyo. And, that's what I'm doing here. OK, so that's not the only reason. There's also the fact that, through two games, UNLV hasn't shown much to be optimistic about moving forward. Offensively it has scored 1.14 points per possession, ranking 11th in the MWC, and is half of what Fresno State (2.28) has done so far. Defensively the Rebels rank 11th in the conference as well, allowing 3.23 points per drive. It's just a difficult team to trust right now. Fresno State 38, UNLV 24
SportsLine Pick of the Week
Rutgers at No. 3 Ohio State (-38, O/U 64.5): Is Rutgers the second-best team in the Big Ten East? Probably not! Can it cover this spread against Ohio State, or would it be best to play the total? To find out, head over to my SportsLine page, where I have a play available.
Last Week | Season | |
|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 2-0 | 9-7 |
Lock of the Week | 1-0 | 4-4 |
Overall | 5-1 | 26-22 |
