I have written several versions of sleepers, breakouts and busts from the start of the offseason in February until now. And with the majority of Fantasy drafts set to happen from Labor Day weekend until the first game Thursday between the Bills and Rams, it's time for one final edition of breakouts.
This is Breakouts 4.0 -- the All-Star Edition. Here are my Busts and Sleepers.
The breakouts here are my favorite players to target in all leagues, and I expect them to be stars this season. These are the difference makers who could lead you to a Fantasy championship. I highly recommend that you invest in them this year.
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Quarterbacks
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Hurts has the potential to be the No. 1 overall quarterback this season with his upgraded receiving corps, as well as his rushing prowess. If he can put it all together we could see a monster season in 2022. The addition of A.J. Brown should prove the Eagles want to throw the ball more, and we saw that in the first preseason game against the Jets when Hurts went 6-for-6 passing for 80 yards and a touchdown in one possession. In the first seven games last season, Hurts averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game, and he averaged 26.4 Fantasy points per game over that span. The Eagles then became more reliant on their ground game, and Hurts averaged just 23.8 pass attempts and 18.1 Fantasy points per game over his final eight outings. With the Eagles trading for Brown, they should allow Hurts to throw more, including an improved DeVonta Smith in Year 2 and a standout tight end in Dallas Goedert. And if Hurts continues to rush for around 52.3 yards per game -- his average from 2021 -- he could approach 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Hurts is worth drafting as a top-five quarterback, and he could challenge to be the No. 1 quarterback this year.
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I'm not worried about Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco as the backup quarterback. The 49ers have made it clear that Lance is their starter, and I expect him to prove they made the right decision. He's a special talent, and he's going to prove to be a difference maker for Fantasy managers. Lance appeared in three games as a rookie in 2021 with extended action, and he scored at least 22 Fantasy points in two of those outings. His rushing ability is something we covet, and he had at least 31 yards in those three games. If you take his rushing production over those three contests and project it over 17 games, Lance would have run for 912 yards. He has a great situation with the 49ers because of the talent around him in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as head coach Kyle Shanahan. Lance is worth drafting as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback, and he could be a top-five quarterback by the end of the season.
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Running Backs
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Melvin Gordon said in August that the Broncos want Williams "to be the guy" and so do Fantasy managers. It might not be the ideal situation of Williams dominating carries as long as Gordon is healthy, but Williams should be the lead running back for Denver and become a standout Fantasy option this year. The new coaching staff in Denver will use both running backs, but we hope to see a bigger portion of the touches go to Williams, who is worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all leagues. Last year, even in tandem with Gordon, we saw Williams' upside when given an increased workload. He had eight games in 2022 with at least 15 total touches, and he averaged 14.0 PPR points per game over that span, including three games with at least 19 PPR points. And in the one game when Gordon was out in Week 13 at Kansas City, Williams had 23 carries for 102 yards, along with six catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on nine targets for 29 PPR points. He has superstar potential, and you want that on your Fantasy roster. Don't let Gordon's return deter you from targeting Williams early this year.
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Etienne didn't get the chance to showcase his skills as a rookie in 2021 because of a Lisfranc injury in his left foot, but he's fine now and should be the best running back for the Jaguars -- and a top 15 Fantasy running back in PPR. While James Robinson returning earlier than expected from his Achilles tear isn't ideal for Etienne's upside, I still expect him to be a force in the passing game. And he'll share carries with Robinson but still have the chance to be highly productive. I view Etienne as how Alvin Kamara was used early in his career, and the Jaguars will find ways to put the ball in his hands. Doug Pederson should enhance Etienne's skills as a pass catcher since he coached Miles Sanders and Darren Sproles to 50-catch seasons during his tenure in Philadelphia. And the Jaguars should be improved on the offensive line with the addition of guard Brandon Scherff and in their receiving corps with the additions of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, along with a better Trevor Lawrence. Etienne was a star at Clemson, with three seasons in a row of at least 1,500 total yards and 16 total touchdowns, and he had 85 catches in his final two collegiate seasons. He also averaged 7.2 yards per carry and 11.3 yards per catch. Even if Robinson is fully healthy for Week 1, Etienne could be a standout Fantasy option in PPR. He's worth drafting as early as Round 4 in all leagues.
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The Packers offense will look different this season with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling gone, and Green Bay's best weapons could be Aaron Jones and Dillon. I love Jones in the passing game this year -- he could lead the team in receptions based on his past production when Adams has been out due to injury -- and Dillon could emerge as the Packers leading rusher. Dillon took over as the leading rusher for Green Bay at the end of the regular season in 2021 with 45 carries to 38 for Jones in their final four games together. Dillon also had three rushing touchdowns over that span compared to one for Jones, who dominated work in the passing game and was still the better Fantasy option. Dillon could be a factor in the passing game if needed, and he had four games last season with at least four catches. In those games, he scored at least 12 PPR points in every outing and averaged 15.6 PPR points per game over that span. The plan should be to draft Jones in Round 2, and Dillon is worth drafting no later than Round 5 in all leagues.
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Pierce was a sleeper candidate for me prior to training camp, and I loved drafting him at a bargain. Then Pierce showed off his playmaking skills in two preseason games, and now you might have to draft him in Round 4 in all leagues. He might be worth it given his role as the lead running back for the Texans. Marlon Mack is on the practice squad, and Pierce just has to contend with Rex Burkhead, who will likely play on passing downs. Pierce should dominate carries and goal-line work, and hopefully he can approach 35 catches or more. He had five carries for 49 yards in Houston's preseason opener against New Orleans, and he closed the preseason with six carries for 37 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco. Pierce was never a full-time running back at Florida, but he did average more than 5.6 yards per carry in three of four seasons. He also had 19 catches for 216 yards and three touchdowns in a part-time role in 2021. I'm excited about his outlook this year, and he should be a top 20 Fantasy running back in all leagues.
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Wide Receivers
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Pittman was a sophomore sensation in 2021, but I expect him to improve in his third year. I'm going to be aggressively targeting Pittman toward the end of Round 2 or early Round 3, and he's one of my favorite breakout candidates. Pittman had 88 catches for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns last season on 129 targets, and he scored at least 16 PPR points in eight outings. The Colts got a quarterback upgrade this offseason with Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz, and Indianapolis has 149 vacated targets with Zach Pascal, Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton off the roster. Rookie Alec Pierce, a sleeper in deeper leagues, and hopefully a healthy Parris Campbell will help fill the void, but Pittman could go over the 140-target threshold this season. That should put him in elite company even if he plays like he did in 2021, but I'm expecting Ryan to help Pittman reach another level this season. I have Pittman ranked as a top-10 receiver in PPR, and I would draft him ahead of guys like Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown, among others. Call me crazy, but I'm excited about Pittman in 2022.
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Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are both worth drafting as breakout candidates this year, but Sutton has the higher ceiling. He's worth drafting as early as Round 3, and I like selecting Jeudy in Round 5. But Sutton is my favorite Broncos receiver in 2022, and Russell Wilson should help Sutton have a career season. He told me in March during an interview at XPE Sports, a training facility in South Florida, that he wants to be Wilson's version of DK Metcalf in Denver. "Being a bigger receiver, knowing that Russ has had DK and other big receivers, I'm excited," Sutton said. "I've seen him throw the back shoulders, I've seen him throw the red-zone fades. I've seen him make those throws that I'm so anxious to have those opportunities. I've seen what I need to see." In 2019, his second year in the NFL, Sutton had 72 catches for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns on 125 targets. Then he suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 of the 2020 campaign, and he struggled in his return last year, catching just 58 passes for 776 yards and two touchdowns on 98 targets. Fantasy managers are hoping Wilson gets Sutton back to at least his 2019 form, but I have higher expectations. Sutton could be a top 10 Fantasy receiver in 2022.
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Bills coach Sean McDermott spoke highly of Davis at the NFL Combine, and clearly McDermott is excited for Davis this season. "Gabe's going into his third season and he's our type. He's our type of guy," McDermott said. "He has tremendous DNA. He's a winner. He's a player that in Year 2, really in Year 1, our backup in Year 1, had a good season and came back and followed it up in Year 2, which is not easy to do. And then he continues to get better and better. And that's what I'm looking forward to seeing when he comes back in Year 3 now this offseason." The last time we saw Davis in a game that mattered was in the divisional round of the playoffs against the Chiefs, and he had eight catches for 201 yards and four touchdowns on 10 targets. He also scored in the wild-card round against the Patriots with two catches for 41 yards on three targets. And to close the regular season, Davis had at least 11 PPR points in three of his final five games, with three touchdowns over that span. He also had at least seven targets in three of his final four outings. Davis is locked into a starting role opposite Stefon Diggs, and Davis should become a popular target for Josh Allen. Davis is worth drafting in Round 5 in all formats.
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Bateman has the chance for a quality sophomore season as the new No. 1 receiver for Baltimore with Marquise Brown gone. I don't expect Bateman to get 146 targets like Brown got last season, especially with the Ravens saying they want to run the ball more. But I also expect Bateman to get more than the 100 targets Brown got in his second year in 2020. In three seasons with Lamar Jackson, Brown averaged seven touchdowns a year, so that's a good place to start for Bateman. He only scored one touchdown as a rookie in 2021 in 12 games, and he finished with just 46 catches for 515 yards on 68 targets. But he scored at least 12 PPR points in three of his final five games, and he should build on that performance this season. Mark Andrews will remain the No. 1 target for Jackson, but he'll need Bateman to step up with Brown gone. Fantasy managers should target Bateman as a high-end No. 3 receiver in all formats, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 5 in PPR.
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Lazard started the offseason as a sleeper, but he graduated to a breakout candidate at the start of training camp, especially as Aaron Rodgers has continued to call him Green Bay's WR1. Rodgers is expected to lean on Adams quite a bit this year with Davante Adams gone, and Lazard is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in PPR. Last year, Lazard closed the season on a high note with at least 13 PPR points in four of his final five games. He had five touchdowns over that span, including three games with at least five catches and 72 yards. Lazard isn't going to replace Adams or be a consistent Fantasy threat, but he is someone to target as a potential starter in three-receiver leagues, with the upside for more. And Rodgers is excited for Lazard this year. "He's been our dirty work guy for most of his career here," Rodgers told the Packers media this offseason. "Now he's getting an opportunity to be a No. 1 receiver. So, I'm not worried at all about him stepping into that role." We'll see how Lazard does compared to Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb and Romeo Doubs, but Rodgers should lean on Lazard the most, especially early in the season. I'm hopeful Lazard becomes a top 20 Fantasy receiver with his expanded role.
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Tight Ends
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Kmet should benefit from all the attention he's likely to get from Justin Fields in Chicago's passing game, and Kmet should be No. 2 in targets for the Bears this year behind Darnell Mooney. I like Kmet as a top-10 Fantasy tight end this year in PPR, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 9. Being the No. 2 option in the passing game has been good for tight ends, especially last year. Of the top 12 tight ends in PPR, eight of them were either first or second among targets on their team (Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry and Noah Fant). Dalton Schultz tied Amari Cooper for second in targets in Dallas, and Zach Ertz had the most targets for the Cardinals after being traded to Arizona in Week 7. Kmet didn't score a touchdown in 2021, but he will be a go-to option in 2022 with the way Chicago's receivers look heading into the year. I wouldn't be surprised if Kmet is in the conversation as a top five tight end in PPR by the end of the season.
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