While we have seen a lot of pass catchers negatively impacted by playing with backup QBs this season, David Njoku may be the rare example of someone who is better in Fantasy because the starter is out.
Njoku has played with three quarterbacks this season. Deshaun Watson targeted Njoku on just 15.2% of his passes and Njoku averaged 6.8 yards per target and 1.7 Fantasy points per target. P.J. Walker targeted Njoku on 20.4% of his passes and Njoku averaged 7.3 YPT and 1.58 FPPT. Enter Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has taken things to a new level.
Njoku has seen 28.8% of Thompson Robinson's passes come his way. While his efficiency on those targets has cratered to just 4.8 YPT and 1.09 FPPT the Fantasy production is largely a product of Njoku having one touchdown with each of the other QBs and zero with DTR. The bottom line is that both backup QBs are targting Njoku at a higher rate, making him a PPR top-12 option on a weekly basis, even if it is only because of volume.
Isaiah Likely is an add, but his involvement has been almost non-existent even when Andrews has been off the field.
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Numbers to Know
2.39 -- George Kittle leads all tight ends with 2.39 yards per route run. He has not been the odd man out when everyone has been healthy this season.
1.4 -- Isaiah Likely has scored 1.4 PPR Fantasy points in the two games that Mark Andrews has either missed or left early this season.
26.7% -- Trey McBride's 26.7% targets per route run ranks second this season at tight end, just barely behind Travis Kelce.
5 -- Sam LaPorta has exactly five targets in every game that both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been full participants. if that trend holds up he may not be a must-start tight end in the Fantasy playoffs.
Likely has been absolutely irrelevant in a small sample size without Andrews this season. And last year was a completely different system without Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham. Still, Likely had four games with double-digit Fantasy points last year including a monster Week 18 performance where he caught eight passes for 103 yards. The cupboards are bare on the tight end waiver wire, might as well take a shot at that type of upside against one of the worst defenses in the league.
Like Likely, Freiermuth did nothing to make you feel like rostering him last week. But Freiermuth's past is even more of a reason to give him a shot. So is his matchup. The Bengals have allowed the third most targets and yards to the position this season.
I still believed McBride is underpriced at $6,100 which makes this one of the rare instances when Travis Kelce is on the main slate and I am not suggesting him in cash games. Of course, if you don't feel as comfortable with McBride, Kelce is the next best option.
There is a real chance that Arthur Smith is coaching for his job down the stretch and there is a real chance this game against New Orleans plays a large role in determining his fate. Knowing that, I expect Smith to make full use of his best players. Pitts is still one of the best athletes playing the position.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 12 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 12. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
