When a team loses a major component of their offense there's always an adjustment period as we try to project what they'll look like without that cog. For the Patriots, that period shouldn't take long at all. We've already seen them play without Antonio Brown and we spent all summer projecting them without him.
In Week 1 we saw Julian Edelman haul in six of 11 targets for 83 yards. We saw Josh Gordon catch three of four targets for 73 yards and a score. Phillip Dorsett was even better, catching all four of his targets for 95 yards and two scores. Of course, one game is an awfully small sample size.
In my preseason projections I had Edelman projected for 25% of the team's targets, with 19% going to Gordon. That left 15% for Dorsett, or whoever the No. 3 receiver is a on a week-to-week basis. Those numbers should make Edelman a high-end No. 2 receiver, Gordon a low-end No. 2 and Dorsett a boom-or-bust flex in Week 3 and beyond.
As for those of you who rostered Brown? I'm sorry. I wouldn't be cutting him yet. But if you need someone to start this week I do have waiver wire options below.
Week 3 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 3 at this time. Here's what it means:
The Eagles could be without their top two pass catchers in Week 3. Jackson has already been ruled out and Jeffrey hasn't practiced all week. Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz would be the biggest beneficiaries.
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Gallup will miss the next 2-4 weeks with a torn meniscus. This gives Devin Smith an opening, but my expectations is we see a more concentrated passing attack. This could be an enormous week for Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott.
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Numbers to Know
- 6 -- Receptions of 20 yards or more for John Ross this season. That leads the NFL.
- 27.2% -- D.J. Moore's target share. That's No. 1 wide receiver territory as he heads into a matchup with the Arizona Cardinals.
- 53.94% -- Keenan Allen's share of the air yards in Los Angeles. He's not just dominating targets, he's going downfield as well.
- 51 -- Snaps for Marquise Brown in Week 2 after only playing 14 in Week 1. He's looking more and more like a must-start wide receiver.
- 7 -- Catches for John Brown in back-to-back weeks. It's still amazing he was available in a third of leagues before Week 1.
- 4 -- That's where Emmanuel Sanders ranks at wide receiver in PPR leagues. His full recovery from a torn Achilles in less than a year has been remarkable.
Matchups that matter
Cooper faces the Dolphins without Michael Gallup. The Cowboys can do whatever they want in this matchup, and I'd assume that will include a large dose of Cooper targets. It's hard to rank him anywhere other than top five.
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Golladay's matchup is interesting. The Eagles should have a good defense but have been terrible against wide receivers. Terry McLaurin, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley all ate against them. Only Washington has given up more points to the position.
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Will it ever get easy for Davante Adams? First the Bears, then the Vikings, now Chris Harris. You're still starting Adams, but I don't feel certain you're getting the production you paid for this week either. Don't worry, in Week 4 he gets the Eagles.
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Waiver Wire Targets
I'm not excited about Agholor longterm, but there's no one available on the waiver wire I'd rather start in Week 3 assuming Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson are both out. Week 2 against the Falcons shows why. Agholor hauled in eight of 11 targets for 107 yards and a score. In 2018 he had four games with at least eight targets and averaged 20 PPR Fantasy points in those four games. He's close to a must-start option in PPR if both Jeffery and Jackson sit.
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McLaurin is bizarro Agholor. I am very excited about him long-term, but he faces the Bears in Week 3, so it's hard to call him a start. That being said, I wouldn't say he's definitely a sit either. McLaurin has 16 targets in his first two NFL games, and he's been outstanding in both games. There should be plenty of garbage time for Washington in Week 3, so I don't hate him as a flex. Just don't expect another top-20 week.
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Choosing between the Chiefs receivers is no easy ask. Both had six targets last week. Both should have had two long touchdowns. Both have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. That being said, they're more lottery tickets than guys I'd project as starters. The Chiefs have the Ravens in Week 3, and Tyreek Hill is only a few weeks from returning. In other words they aren't great short-term options or guaranteed long-term stashes. But they both need to be rostered. I prefer Hardman slightly because of his upside.
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The targets in Buffalo have been consolidated, with John Brown and Beasley getting nearly 50% between the two of them. This is a good matchup against the Bengals and we expect Josh Allen to have a big day. Beasley should be a part of that.
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Tate only has two weeks left on his suspension, and when he returns he'll have Daniel Jones throwing him the football. That gives him more upside even if it lowers his floor. I'd consider Tate a No. 3 receiver in PPR once he returns, making him a nice bench stash if you don't have a Week 3 need.
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Samuel is the only 49ers receiver with double-digit targets this season. That doesn't yet make him a starter because he's only averaging five targets per game, but there's certainly room for growth.
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I don't expect Dorsett to be a consistent contributor as long as Edelman and Gordon are both there, but he's worth a stash. Edelman is on the wrong side of 30 and has an extensive injury history and Gordon has struggled with issues off the field that have kept him from playing a full season. If either Edelman or Gordon are out Dorsett could be a top-25 receiver.
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DFS Plays
Fitzgerald is fifth in the NFL in targets and he's averaging 16.7 yards per reception. Somehow he's still below $6,000 on both sites. Don't ask questions. Just play him in every lineup. Cash, tournaments, everything.
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Allen's pricing isn't as egregious but he has 25 targets in two games and he's my No. 1 receiver in Week 3 even when you don't factor in his price. I may not play him in every lineup, but Philip Rivers is going to pepper him with targets and the Texans don't have anyone who can stop them.
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Thomas saw his price drop without Drew Brees, and I'm anticipating he'll see an ownership drop as well. Assuming that's true, I'll take a shot on him in tournaments, especially on DraftKings, where you get full PPR. Worst case scenario he should catch a bunch of passes in garbage time.
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Moore actually profiled as a decent cash game play for me, but if he's low-owned I'm going to stock up in tournaments. I love the targets, I love the matchup and I'm not that concerned about the quarterback. Is Allen as good as a healthy Newton? No. But I'm not sure he'll be worse than the version we've seen the first two weeks.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | Non-PPR FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Keenan Allen | 14.58 | 21.76 |
2 | 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | 13.69 | 19.84 |
7 | 3 | Michael Thomas | 11.81 | 19.56 |
3 | 4 | Odell Beckham | 13.58 | 19.51 |
4 | 5 | Sammy Watkins | 13.23 | 19.20 |
5 | 6 | Julio Jones | 13.06 | 18.96 |
6 | 7 | Amari Cooper | 13.01 | 18.58 |
14 | 8 | Tyler Boyd | 11.38 | 17.74 |
13 | 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | 11.39 | 17.48 |
12 | 10 | Davante Adams | 11.48 | 17.24 |
10 | 11 | Robert Woods | 11.62 | 17.06 |
9 | 12 | Cooper Kupp | 11.68 | 17.04 |
17 | 13 | Julian Edelman | 11.05 | 16.86 |
11 | 14 | T.Y. Hilton | 11.59 | 16.41 |
19 | 15 | D.J. Moore | 10.63 | 16.40 |
8 | 16 | Tyler Lockett | 11.71 | 16.27 |
15 | 17 | Brandin Cooks | 11.26 | 15.94 |
16 | 18 | Chris Godwin | 11.14 | 15.93 |
24 | 19 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10.25 | 15.73 |
21 | 20 | Allen Robinson | 10.49 | 15.38 |
18 | 21 | Kenny Golladay | 10.98 | 15.38 |
23 | 22 | Adam Thielen | 10.35 | 15.28 |
20 | 23 | John Brown | 10.63 | 15.20 |
31 | 24 | Sterling Shepard | 9.00 | 14.32 |
26 | 25 | Tyrell Williams | 9.80 | 14.28 |
22 | 26 | Josh Gordon | 10.49 | 14.13 |
25 | 27 | Mike Evans | 10.14 | 14.12 |
28 | 28 | Calvin Ridley | 9.50 | 14.05 |
29 | 29 | Emmanuel Sanders | 9.14 | 13.94 |
27 | 30 | Marquise Brown | 9.54 | 13.69 |
30 | 31 | Christian Kirk | 9.02 | 13.53 |
47 | 32 | Jamison Crowder | 7.36 | 13.14 |
34 | 33 | Terry McLaurin | 8.65 | 12.59 |
36 | 34 | Jarvis Landry | 8.16 | 12.54 |
37 | 35 | Nelson Agholor | 8.12 | 12.54 |
33 | 36 | Courtland Sutton | 8.78 | 12.51 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 3 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
