The Heat are going nowhere. The word "rebuilding" started to be tossed around early in preseason, a rarity for a Miami team that loathes the idea of not competing. (The Heat have only gone through one rebuilding season, in 2008, since Dwyane Wade was drafted.) Miami manages to stay in games more than most bad teams -- they are 23rd in point differential, but 28th in win percentage this season -- but the end result is almost always the same.
Pat Riley seems to have given up the ghost and the team is settling down for a long winter's slog to try and acquire Markelle Fultz, Dennis Smith, Josh Jackson, Lonzo Ball or Malik Monk in next June's draft. But there are still matters to figure out, and tops of those is Goran Dragic.
The Heat gave up a first-round pick to acquire the dynamic point guard from Phoenix. Dragic has been fine, good even, at times, but it all seems ineffectual. He never meshed with Dwyane Wade, and while he and Hassan Whiteside operate fine together, it's not one of the more dangerous combos in the league.
Dragic is 30 with over $35 million guaranteed left on the deal he signed in 2015, and his $19 million owed in 2019-20 comes under a player early termination option, meaning he can play through age 34 at that cost. All of this leads to the conclusion that Miami has reason to pursue a trade for Dragic, and Yahoo Sports reports that both the Heat, and Dragic, are open to a deal.
Dragic is a dilemma. When Dragic forced a trade to Miami two years ago, he thought he was joining a team one piece away -- him -- from being a conference contender. Today he's leading a roster that's a couple of losses from falling below Philadelphia in the East basement. Dragic is open to a trade, league sources told The Vertical, and Miami has pursued that option. An early season swap with Sacramento for Rudy Gay fell apart when the Heat sought Darren Collison, sources said, and teams that have probed Miami about Dragic have found the Heat open to offers.
And why not? Dragic is 30, and if Miami is going to maximize its return on an All-Star-level point guard having another strong season, now is the time. He's a depreciating asset, a bona fide star, to be sure, but one who doesn't draw fans (the announced "sellout" of 16,700 on Tuesday was laughable; there were maybe 5,000 in the seats) and who will likely be in decline when Riley is able to remold the Heat into a contender. The value of the assets Dragic could fetch in a trade could exceed the immediate value he has to the organization.
Source: Why the Heat's rebuild is anything but clear-cut.
OK, so a "star" player in his prime on what is, under the new cap structure a very reasonable deal. Even with his depreciating value, it should be easy to get return for him.
But pay attention to that Kings deal mentioned.
Sacramento thought Darren Collison, a replacement-level point guard with off-court issues, was too high a price to pair with Rudy Gay, the player they've been trying to unload for a year, in a deal for Dragic. The biggest issue is that Dragic's specific positioning -- non-superstar, ball-dominant point guard -- is not one that a lot of teams really need. Here are the teams where Dragic would represent a significant upgrade over their current starting point guard:
New York Knicks
Derrick Rose has been good, but given durability and play-style concerns, Dragic would represent an objective upgrade. But the Knicks have no assets to trade, and moving Rose after making him the big move from the summer seems unlikely. Dragic over Rose may be an upgrade, but many would see it as a lateral move.
Milwaukee Bucks
Matthew Dellavedova's net rating is a negative, and while he provides a lot of what they need, it would not be a problem bringing Delly off the bench as a defensive counter. But the Bucks' success has been predicated on making Giannis Antetokounmpo the point guard. Adding a ball-dominant point guard doesn't make much sense for what the Bucks do.
Indiana Pacers
Jeff Teague has been surprisingly good in pick and rolls for a middling Pacers team; Teague is 10th in points per possession in pick and rolls including passes out, according to Synergy Sports. But his defense has suffered, and Teague is shooting just 42 percent on his own, 29 percent from deep. Teague is on an expiring contract, which might be valuable in Pat Riley's never-ending quest to try and beg a superstar to come to the Heat in free agency. Other than that, the Pacers are thin on assets that would benefit the Heat long-term, stocked with veterans on medium-length deals like Thaddeus Young and Monta Ellis. This might be the best of their options, if the Pacers were interested in how Dragic would operate in Nate McMillan's system, though Dragic is a defensive downgrade from Teague.
Orlando Magic
Elfrid Payton's numbers have dipped under Frank Vogel and he has been in and out of the starting lineup. Orlando has some players that might be long-term investments for Miami, but none of them are building block players for the kind of championship contender that Pat Riley lives for. It's hard to see the Magic going for a deal involving Evan Fournier, but it would give them a better asset for future deals. It's also hard to see Orlando being open to moving Aaron Gordon in any deal for Dragic. Plus, teams rarely move a key player in-division.
Brooklyn Nets
Brook Lopez can't play next to Whiteside and the Nets have no other assets. Like, nothing. No picks, no players, nothing. I'd trade for Sean Kilpatrick, but that's because I'm a Sean Kilpatrick mark. Jeremy Lin wouldn't be a huge downgrade, but he's on a longer contract.
Philadelphia 76ers
This one's kind of interesting. The Sixers need a point guard more than they need absolutely anything. They have shooters (seventh in made 3-pointers, 13th in 3-point percentage), and a prolific big man. Dragic would make them substantially better. The Heat have taken gambles on character questions before, so a Nerlens Noel deal would make a degree of sense. You could pair Whiteside's pick and roll and shot blocking with either Noel or Jahlil Okafor. Throw in a Robert Covington, whose value is sliding, and you have something significant. If the Heat can rehabilitate the trade value of Noel or Okafor in Erik Spoelstra's system (a more natural fit), they could then use those players to go after the superstar Riley is always wanting.
Sacramento Kings
As previously mentioned, they're a potential destination but it will take a softening of what they're willing to part with for Dragic.
Denver Nuggets
They have young players, movable contracts, good veterans, and picks, so they have the pieces. But it would take the Nuggets not only giving up on Emmanuel Mudiay after less than two years, and it still creates a long-term issue with Jamal Murray who looks far more comfortable with the ball. Dragic also does nothing to solve their vast defensive issues, and if they trade the veterans, they do nothing to solve their mismatch of young and veteran players.
New Orleans Pelicans
An interesting idea. Jrue Holiday is probably objectively "better" with his defensive strength and athleticism, but he's a constant injury concern and Dragic in Alvin Gentry's system might be a remarkable fit. With Holiday's injury history and a barren cupboard outside of that, the Pelicans have little to interest the Heat's long-term goals.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Offense is not their problem, and while Ricky Rubio has struggled and will never, ever be a shooter in any capacity, Dragic doesn't fix what ails them. If the Wolves decided they wanted to move Zach LaVine or Andrew Wiggins to shake things up, then sure, but if they did, they would want way better assets than Dragic.
Los Angeles Lakers
The other team Dragic was reportedly interested in when he was forcing his way out of Phoenix. You can play D'Angelo Russell at two-guard, and Dragic in Luke Walton's system would be great. But this would constitute a major abandonment of the youth movement in dealing for a nearly-past-his prime, costly asset.
Dallas Mavericks
They have no assets to deal.
Phoenix Suns
Ha. Good joke.
So while there are some options, the trick is difficult in finding a great fit. It's not just Dragic's profile: a veteran, big-money defensive non-factor on a long-term deal. It's that the Heat are not looking for future assets for a long rebuild.
Pat Riley's patience will last for a year, at most. He wants major upgrades, constantly, and the Heat don't have the pieces to package with Dragic to get one, unless they're ready to deal Whiteside and/or Justise Winslow. Now, if they are, then Boogie Cousins would have to at least be a plausible idea, but that's a risk that not even Riley may be willing to take.
The Heat are stuck between a rock and a hard place with Dragic. How they figure a way out of it could wind up being significant in determining just how long the rebuild will take in Miami.
