The 2023 NFL Draft is finally here, and that means it's time for some last-minute predictions. Forecasting draft weekend may be a mostly foolish endeavor. After all, one general manager has already admitted that "it's all a guess" in terms of how each team values each prospect. But what is draft season without draft prognostications?
Ahead of Thursday's Round 1 kickoff at 8 p.m. ET, here are five bold predictions for the first day of the event:
Five QBs are picked for just the fifth time in NFL history
Few would be shocked if this occurs, but then again, there's a reason it has only happened four other times since 1936: we tend to overhype at least one of the top QB prospects, boosting their stock when in reality teams are content to wait on them. Still, we'd consider four signal-callers virtual locks to go on Day 1: Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), Anthony Richardson (Florida) and Will Levis (Kentucky). All four could even go in the top five. That leaves Tennessee's Hendon Hooker, who feels like a good bet to go anywhere between pick No. 15 and 31, perhaps to a team with an established starter already in place.
At least three trades occur in the top 10
We say this every year, but there's been quite a bit of buzz about teams' differing preferences at premium spots like QB, edge rusher and cornerback. That could spell a lot of moving around up top, as clubs are more aggressive -- or willing to sell -- for "their guys." In the top 10 alone, you could argue that all but one of the teams has good reason to move up or down:
- Texans (No. 2): They also own No. 12 and could sell their top pick if they aren't sold on a top QB
- Cardinals (No. 3): They've advertised the pick and probably want a QB-needy team to come calling
- Colts (No. 4): They might not be able to stand pat and get the QB they truly desire
- Seahawks (No. 5): Also owning No. 20, their longtime regime has a history of moving down
- Lions (No. 6): With the No. 18 pick also at their disposal, they can afford to listen
- Raiders (No. 7): They could move up for a top QB or look to accumulate assets as they rebuild
- Falcons (No. 8): Word is they're already desperate to move down and collect picks
- Bears (No. 9): They already moved down from No. 1 and could look to drop again
- Eagles (No. 10): Howie Roseman is more trade-happy than just about any general manager
The oddsmakers are right about Will Levis
In a matter of days, the Kentucky QB went from the consensus fourth-ranked passer -- behind Young, Stroud and Richardson -- to a betting favorite to go No. 2 overall, as well as No. 1 in the event the Panthers pass on Young. What gives? CBS Sports' Pete Prisco says NFL evaluators admire Levis a lot more than they've let on, and we tend to believe that. He's drawn NFL comparisons both favorable (Josh Allen) and not (Carson Wentz), but remember that even though Wentz didn't last as a star in the pros, his entry-level traits aren't any less desirable. In other words, you can't teach a huge arm, huge size and huge athleticism, all of which Levis boasts. Someone will convince themselves he can be groomed, which means it's hard to see him escaping the top five.
Two OTs go in the top 10
It might sound like a tepid prediction, but imagine if four QBs go in the top five alone. Edge rushers have also gotten lots of attention as top-10 picks; you figure at least Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson will go that high. Two corners, Illinois' Devon Witherspoon and Oregon's Christian Gonzalez, are also popular top-10 picks. That's eight prospects right there. Even so, both Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) and Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State) project as immediate starters in the NFL, and teams are rarely more starved than for help up front. There's buzz Arizona could target Johnson as early as No. 3 overall, and the Eagles at No. 10 are always a team to watch when it comes to the trenches.
At least as many TEs are picked as WRs
The tight end class is considered very deep, which means teams could wait to address the position. But there might not be a more polarizing group than wide receiver, where only Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba feels like a stone-cold lock to go on Day 1. Jordan Addison (USC), Quentin Johnston (TCU) and Zay Flowers (Boston College) are all good possibilities, but consider how many starting-caliber TEs also figure to be available -- none of whom have the size concerns that this year's top WRs do: Michael Mayer (Notre Dame), Dalton Kincaid (Utah), Darnell Washington (Georgia) and Sam LaPorta (Iowa) could all be viewed as safer bets.
