For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Kansas City Chiefs are struggling. Losers of two in a row, the Chiefs still hold possession of first place in the AFC West, but their grip on the division is far more tenuous than anybody would have expected after they got off to a 4-0 start.
Meanwhile, the division rival Denver Broncos are on the rise. The Broncos have had the exact opposite season as the Chiefs, starting 0-4 before scoring victories in each of their past two games. Denver is still on the outside looking in of the playoff race, but after getting off to such a slow start, they're closer than we thought they'd be at this point.
It's in this environment that the two teams will meet on "Thursday Night Football." Can the Chiefs get back on track? Will the Broncos keep the good times rolling? Let's break things down.
Jared Dubin also joined Will Brinson to dive deeper into the matchup on the Pick Six Podcast. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
How to watch
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, Colorado)
TV: FOX, NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
When the Chiefs have the ball
So, we have to dig into what it is that constitutes a slump for the Mahomes-led Chiefs offense. Kansas City had scored at least 26 points in every single game Mahomes started up until two weeks ago, and now they have scored fewer than that in back-to-back games. The Chiefs had also been averaging 432.8 total yards per game through Mahomes' first 21 starts, only to see that figure drop to just 316.5 the past two weeks.
There are several understandable reasons this has happened.
First, Mahomes himself has been banged up, aggravating the ankle injury he sustained in Week 1 during each of the past two games. He has been noticeably limited throughout, and it has noticeably affected his performance as well.
Second, Mahomes' team has been banged up. Offensive linemen Eric Fisher and Andrew Wylie have been out for most of the past two games. Tyreek Hill was out in Week 5 and on a snap limit in Week 6. Sammy Watkins exited the Week 5 loss after the first play of the game and did not play at all last week.
And third, both opponents have taken advantage of those injuries, pressuring Mahomes more often than usual and employing man coverage schemes to force the likes of Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle to beat them off the line and down the field; and they have been mostly unable to make them pay for it.
There's no telling how Mahomes' ankle will hold up on short rest against the Broncos. He looked healthy at the start of each of the past two games, only to aggravate it again and then move around gingerly. If he's healthy, we should expect the usual awesomeness. That's just how it goes with this dude. If he's not, well, then things get interesting.
Fisher, Wylie, and Watkins are all out for this game. Cameron Erving and Martinas Rankin will presumably man the left side of the Kansas City offensive line, and that's a problem for the Chiefs. Erving has been a disaster so far, allowing 13 pressures on 234 pass-blocking snaps. He's a turnstile. Rankin has held up better, but he's not brought the same ferocity to the run game as Wylie (who is a relatively poor pass blocker, to be fair). This would be less of a problem if Denver's pressure rate was still hovering around 18.5 percent, as it was in Weeks 1 and 2. But that rate has spiked back to 38.9 percent in four weeks since, and that makes it an issue.
And with Watkins out, the Chiefs are once again not at full strength on the perimeter. They haven't been whole since the first half of Week 1, when Hill was knocked out with a clavicle injury. After being eased into the lineup last week, Hill (28 of 55 snaps) should presumably be closer to full strength. When he's on the field, he's almost sure to see shadow coverage from Chris Harris Jr., who has been spending significantly more time on the outside than in the slot for the first time in several seasons. Harris has bumped down inside on only 18 snaps this year, per Pro Football Focus; he was there for 291 snaps last year, 325 in 2017, 365 in 2016, and 335 in 2015.
But despite different usage, Harris has still been his usual shutdown self in coverage: opposing quarterbacks have a 57.8 passer rating on throws in his direction, with just 134 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception on 19 pass attempts. Hill presents a far different challenge than any other player with whom he has tangled, but it's not as though Harris isn't up for a challenge. I'd expect him to track Hill into the slot when he goes there, as he did with Keenan Allen back in Week 5.
Elsewhere, Isaac Yiadom and Davontae Harris will presumably get the primary matchups against Robinson, Hardman, and Pringle, who figure to work in a rotation. All three Kansas City wideouts are capable of springing for a big gain at any time, but Robinson has Mahomes' trust far more than the other two. The Chiefs have seemed to use Hardman as something like a backup to Hill and Pringle as a backup to Watkins, but it'll be interesting to watch how often they all rotate in with each other.
But that trio is not the biggest challenge for the Denver defense. It's Travis Kelce. In his five most recent games against the Broncos, Kelce has posted the following receiving lines: 6-79-1, 7-78-1, 7-133-1, 11-160-1, and 8-101-0. That's an average line of 8-110-1. The Broncos' interior defenders have been yielding short completions and rallying up to tackle (linebackers Josey Jewell, Todd Davis, and Alexander Johnson have allowed opponents to complete 34 of 43 passes, but for only 220 yards), but that's easier said than done against Kelce, who is a monster with the ball in his hands. If the Chiefs can get him the ball in open space, he can make things happen against this defense.
The Broncos have been only average against the run, but the Kansas City run game has been practically non-existent, and with the offensive line issues over the past two weeks they have all but abandoned it anyway. There's really no telling how Andy Reid and company will decide to utilize Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy, and Darrel Williams, but it seems likely that they'll continue relying on Mahomes to get the job done, given how ineffective their backs have been on the ground.
When the Broncos have the ball
On the surface, it seems like the Broncos' offense has been pretty effective -- especially if you play fantasy football. This is a unit producing two fantasy-viable backs in Phillip Lindsay (84 carries for 397 yards and four touchdowns, plus 16 catches for 147 yards) and Royce Freeman (66 carries for 284 yards, plus 21 catches for 145 yards) and a breakout receiver in Courtland Sutton (30 catches for 477 yards and three touchdowns).
And yet, Denver ranks just 25th in yards per game, 26th in points per game, and 20th in offensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. They've scored a combined 36 points during their two wins. Does this sound like a group that is about to keep pace with Mahomes and company? I doubt it.
Instead, the Broncos will likely try to employ the strategy utilized by the Indianapolis Colts back in Week 5. The Colts won the time of possession battle 37:15 to 22:45, handing the ball to Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins a combined 36 times, which they used to produce 160 yards on the ground. The Lindsay-Freeman duo is fully capable of the same type of production. But the Broncos should be careful about trying to go this route: you essentially have to be exactly as effective as the Colts were in order for it to really work against Kansas City.
Lucky for them, it appears this Chiefs defense may be even worse than it was last season. Kansas City ranks 20th in overall defense DVOA, and 31st against the run. They're also allowing 5.33 Adjusted Line Yards per carry. By way of perspective, last year's Rams set a Football Outsiders-era (since 1989) record for Adjusted Line Yards per carry by an offense, and they were at 5.49. This year's Chiefs defense is turning practically every opposing running game into last year's Rams. That's not great, folks! And they're likely to be even less effective stopping the run without the services of Chris Jones, who is still out after injuring himself during the aforementioned loss to the Colts.
It would certainly help the Chiefs if they could get the Frank Clark they expected when they traded so much value for him and handed him such a big contract; but he has been a massive disappointment so far. And that's not just against the run. Clark has just one sack this season; his 16 total pressures put him on par with players like Carl Nassib and D.J. Reader, and are one fewer than the 17 recorded by Dee Ford -- whom the Chiefs traded away and replaced with Clark -- despite Ford playing one fewer game.
Kansas City seems relatively unlikely to shut down the Denver run game, considering its effectiveness so far this season, so instead their defense will have to actually ramp up the pressure on Joe Flacco and force him into mistakes. Sutton is Flacco's top option at this point, and he's likely to lock horns with Bashaud Breeland, who spends most of his time aligned on the left side of the field. That leaves Emmanuel Sanders to tangle with Charvarius Ward, and DaeSean Hamilton to battle with whomever the Chiefs elect to use in the slot to replace Kendall Fuller. All of those matchups seem to favor the Broncos as well, but winning them depends on Flacco delivering the ball on time and on target, which he only does every so often at this point.
Prediction: Chiefs 29, Broncos 20
