Strong start to the season for my best bets -- obviously that's the case since I didn't join the SuperContest this year. After going 3-2 in Week 1, I busted out a 4-1 week last week. The Patriots tried to ruin my under in that game, but the Dolphins managed to hold on by refusing to score a touchdown late.
Let's keep the hot streak going with five games against the spread. I've got some over-unders I like too and would be fine taking them as straight bets -- check them in the parlay portion below.
But before you do that, make sure and hit play on the pod player below. Myself, Pete Prisco and R.J. White broke down all of our best bets on one of TWO Friday shows that we posted to the Pick Six Podcast feed. We tell you who we like in every single NFL game for your picks league, break down our best bets from the week and even hand out some teasers and parlays. Subscribe right here and hit play below to listen in the player.
Reminder we use the Westgate SuperContest lines, so what you see in your picks league or on your own site may change.
Seattle is just 1-1 against the spread so far this season and this isn't a freebie just because Drew Brees is out. The Saints defense is legit and should have helped New Orleans steal that game on the road against the Rams, but the refs jumped in and squashed that possibility. Still, Seattle has been outstanding at home early in the season under Pete Carroll. In eight home September games since 2010 when the spread was somewhere between +5 and -5, the Seahawks are undefeated against the spread! In 15 September home games since Carroll took over, the Seahawks are 15-0. They don't lose under Pete Carroll in September. Teddy Bridgewater draws his first start since 2015 and it's in a rough spot. The Seahawks know how important this game is for NFC seeding and they won't be taking it for granted that they drew a backup quarterback for the second straight game.
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This line has moved dramatically, with the Chiefs only favored by five and a half points now. I still like it at that number -- I know the Chiefs are the best offense in football and Patrick Mahomes is somehow improved over a 50-touchdown MVP season. I don't care. The Ravens kept this close last year with a basic offensive attack and took the Chiefs to overtime. Lamar Jackson isn't scared of playing in Arrowhead and he's becoming more and more comfortable in this offense. The Ravens beat up on two bad defenses early in Miami and Arizona, but why is Kansas City going to be better? The Ravens will put up points here. If they play a grinder they can win and if they play a shootout they can win. Give me the points, especially with the distinct possibility of a worst case backdoor cover scenario by Lamar and Co.
Tons of injuries here for Philadelphia. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both going to miss the game. Carson Wentz (who was a little banged up in the Atlanta game as well) will be throwing to Nelson Agholor, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Zach Ertz. The Lions snuck by the Chargers, but they still played well on defense and should have easily won in Week 1 against Arizona. This is an undervalued Lions team with some big play weapons on offense. Matthew Stafford looks completely healthy and is starting to develop a really nice rapport with Kenny Golladay. The Eagles might be able to slow down Kerryon Johnson some, but he's being used in the receiving game nicely. Could be a big day for T.J. Hockenson too. Is this Lions team GOOD? It might be! I'll take all those points with the injuries and a quarterback in Stafford who likes to storm back from the dead.
Typically speaking I wouldn't like to back the Steelers on the road against a west coast team. They usually lay eggs in those spots. But they're also in a VASTLY different situation here, with Ben Roethlisberger going down to injury and Mason Rudolph filling in. Can someone explain to me why this line moved 6.5 points, but the Seahawks line didn't move much with Brees going down? Hmm. Feels like Vegas purposely overreacting because people will be taking the 2-0 49ers favored by less than a touchdown over the 0-2 Steelers. Look, Rudolph might not be good! But I think we've seen enough of him, and he has enough weapons, that he can end up putting up pretty good numbers. He and James Washington know each other very well, he and Vance McDonald already hooked up for a pair of touchdowns last week and regardless of the narrative percolating in fantasy circles right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster is a really good receiver and a legit No. 1. The one big difference for Pittsburgh versus Tampa Bay/Cincy? They have a good offensive line. I think Pittsburgh can neutralize the San Francisco pass rush, give Rudolph time to throw downfield and steal this game.
This is a name your number game for the Vikings. They're coming off a loss to the Packers, a game they believe they should have won and a game in which Kirk Cousins messed himself in a big spot. This is not a big spot and I think we're going to see multiple shots down the field to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen off play action in the first half. Mike Zimmer wants to run the ball, but he can still do that early and then go up top to his receivers and make everyone happy. Dalvin Cook should eat against a Raiders defense that played above its head for six quarters and is starting to come back to Earth. And we saw the Vikings defense lock down Aaron Rodgers after a rough first quarter. Minnesota has an excellent home-field advantage and a coach who will get up by two or three touchdowns early and grind this puppy out. Don't mind hitting the Vikings first half (-6) either. Might even like it more -- look at the differential there. It tells you that Vegas believes a cover from the Raiders will probably involve a backdoor garbage situation in the second half. I'm just not sure how they're going to score a ton of points here.
PICK SIX PODCAST PARLAY OF THE WEEK
Seahawks -4 (-120)
Chiefs/Ravens over 52
Redskins/Bears under 42 (-130)
Lot going on here, because the lines moves after we recorded the podcast. That's why you should go ahead and check out the video on YouTube every week -- you can do so below if you want as well! -- since it's released earlier than the audio version. Anyway, I think we see a shootout between the Chiefs and Ravens, despite what Baltimore might try and do by limiting the scoring. They're not going to stop Mahomes from going up top completely and there will be some breaks in coverage even with Earl Thomas on the backend. Are the Ravens really going to stop taking shots down the field just to keep the ball out of Mahomes hand?? You've got to score points and if the Chiefs jump out to a big lead early this could hit by halftime. The Redskins/Bears line is dropping precipitously so go ahead and get the under in. It's gonna be below 40 by the time Monday rolls around. And the Seahawks moved up overnight to -4.5 after sniffing around -3.5. It would be surprising if they lost points against a backup quarterback.
1 unit parlay play to win 5.22 units
UNDERDOG MONEY LINE PARLAY OF THE WEEK
I like all three of these teams against the spread, obviously, and I believe they all can win as well. So I'm going to dive into the moneyline angle here. You've seen my picks above, so you don't need me to break it down too much. I believe they're live dogs and I think there is good value in taking some nice-priced teams on the moneyline to win outright. The one that concerns me more than the other, should you want to increase your odds of winning but minimize your payout a bit, is the Ravens. Fading the Chiefs is just tough. A Steelers/Lions moneyline parlay pays out 10-1 and I have no problem splashing on that as well/instead if you're worried about fading the Chiefs in this spot.
.2 unit parlay play to win 6.6u ($10 wins $330 basically)
Week 1 best bets ATS record: 7-3, +4u
2019 best bets ATS record: 7-3, +4u