Now that the college football regular season is over, the 2024 NFL Draft chatter can officially begin. As we enter the late stages of the NFL regular season, the playoff picture -- and 2024 draft order -- are becoming more clear.
Following the conclusion of Week 13, there are three teams with the best chances to win the Caleb Williams or Drake Maye sweepstakes: The Chicago Bears, New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals. Which squad will "out-lose" the others?
Below, we will break down the percentage chances for each team to win the No. 1 overall pick, according to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh's simulations. Let's start with the most interesting team in this race.
Chicago Bears (and their pick from the Carolina Panthers)
Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 67.1%
As the Panthers continue to lose games, it appears more and more likely the Bears will be selecting first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Eight months ago, the Bears sold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Panthers for wide receiver D.J. Moore, two picks in the 2023 draft, Carolina's 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. The Panthers used that pick to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, which hasn't worked out just yet.
The Bears, who currently sit at 4-8, have a 0.6% chance at the No. 1 overall pick with their own selection. But thanks to owning Carolina's selection, Chicago has a 67.1% overall chance at picking first. What a disaster for the Panthers, who are the worst team in the league, and don't even own their first-round pick to help in the rebuild.
Bears remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
14 | vs. Detroit Lions |
15 | |
16 | vs. Arizona Cardinals |
17 | vs. Atlanta Falcons |
18 |
- Current record: 4-8
- Projected final record: 6-11
Panthers remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
14 | |
15 | vs. Atlanta Falcons |
16 | vs. Green Bay Packers |
17 | |
| 18 | vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
- Current record: 1-11
- Projected final record: 2-15
New England Patriots
Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 29.7%
Things are getting worse and worse for the Patriots. Their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday gave them the honor of being the first team in the Super Bowl era to lose three straight games while allowing 10 or fewer points in each. It also marked the Patriots' fifth game this season scoring 7 or fewer points.
Bill Belichick benched Mac Jones for Bailey Zappe, but the Western Kentucky product completed 13 of 25 passes for just 141 yards, while the Patriots failed to reach the red zone. How bad is this offense? The Patriots are 1-3 this year when allowing 10 or fewer points. The rest of the NFL is 53-0.
Patriots remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
14 | |
15 | |
16 | |
17 | |
18 | vs. New York Jets |
- Current record: 2-10
- Projected final record: 3-14
Arizona Cardinals
Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 3.1%
The Cardinals entered 2023 as the preseason favorites to be the worst team in the league. However, Arizona has somewhat overperformed. Joshua Dobbs kept the Cards competitive through the early stages of the regular season, and now Kyler Murray is back under center. The Cards registered a rather impressive 24-10 victory over the Steelers on Sunday, as James Conner ran wild with 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his revenge game, while Arizona went 10 of 17 on third downs and 3 for 3 in the red zone.
With that victory, the Cardinals' chances for the top pick fell from 22% to just 3.1%.
Cardinals remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
15 | |
16 | at Chicago Bears |
17 | |
18 | vs. Seattle Seahawks |
- Current record: 3-10
- Projected final record: 4-13
SportsLine top pick odds
| Team | No. 1 pick |
|---|---|
Chicago Bears | 67.1% |
New England Patriots | 29.7% |
Arizona Cardinals | 3.1% |
Other | 0.1% |
