The Las Vegas Raiders are in danger of falling out of the playoff race. Their record has dropped to 7-6 as they have lost three of their last four, and they need to get themselves a win on Thursday night to get back on track. Standing in their way are the division rival Los Angeles Chargers, whose own playoff dreams have long since passed by, but who appear plenty capable of playing spoiler down the stretch -- assuming they can ever figure out how to properly manage the clock.
In the interest of getting on with the show, let's break down the matchup ...
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Dec. 17 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, Nevada)
TV: Fox/NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
When the Chargers have the ball
The Raiders moved on from defensive coordinator Paul Guenther earlier in the week, and honestly, it was about time. In Guenther's three seasons as the coordinator of this defense the Raiders ranked 26th, 20th, and 25th in yards; 32nd, 24th, and 30th in points; and 31st, 31st, and 28th in efficiency, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. The Raiders could not stop the run (31st, 20th, and 32nd in DVOA) and could not stop the pass (32nd, 31st, and 21st). They have been unable to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks (32nd, 27th, and 19th in pressure rate) and unable to force turnovers (23rd, 32nd, and 21st in the percentage of opponent drives ending in a turnover). Essentially, they did nothing well for the better part of three seasons.
So, a change was clearly in order. The issue is that the man replacing him (Rod Marinelli) was part of the staff already this year, coaching up the defensive line, and presided over a similarly-deficient defense in Dallas over the past few years. It's not as though his elevation into the top spot should be expected to solve any of the defense's issues, let alone all of them. Instead, it's likely that the Raiders will continue struggling for stops throughout the rest of the season. Thursday night should be no different.
When we checked in on Justin Herbert's progress a few weeks back, here's where he was at:
Herbert has completed 238 of 350 passes (68 percent) for 2,699 yards (7.7 per attempt), 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 104.7 passer rating. He ranks 14th in the league in QBR, seventh in Football Outsiders' DVOA, seventh in EPA per pass attempt, eighth in EPA per rush attempt (he's totaled 187 yards, 16 first downs, and three touchdowns on his 39 rush attempts), and sixth in passing success rate. He has better-than-average marks in every rate statistic tracked by Pro-Football-Reference, and he is on pace to set rookie records for completions, attempts, completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, while falling ever-so-slightly short in passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.
The first thing that stands out about Herbert is his sheer size. He stands 6-foot-6 and weighs 236 pounds, and he looks every bit of it on the field. While prototypical size and build does not a good quarterback make, it certainly helps to have it. The second thing that stands out is his incredible arm strength. Herbert easily fires the ball to any and all areas of the field, which perhaps helps explain his 4.3 percent completion percentage over expectation, per NFL.com's Next Gen Stats, the third-best mark among qualified quarterbacks. (Only Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins rank ahead of him, out of the 38 qualifiers.) The third thing that stands out is his mobility. Herbert moves around in a way that simply should not be possible for a player of his size, and it affords him the ability to create and make throws that many others can't.
The combination of these three traits allow Herbert to excel on the most difficult types of throws. His 118.3 passer rating on throws between the sideline and the numbers, per Pro Football Focus and Tru media, ranks sixth in the NFL. His 108.5 passer rating on throws on the move from outside the pocket ranks seventh. And according to PFF, 12.9 percent of his pass attempts have traveled at least 20 yards in the air. That figure ranks 12th among the 27 signal-callers who have thrown at least 20 such passes, while his 101.2 passer rating on those throws ranks ninth among the same group. His 10 touchdown tosses on those throws, meanwhile, ranks second behind only Wilson's 11.
Naturally, Herbert proceeded to have his two worst games of the season immediately after publication of that post, but he bounced back with a nice performance last week and is still on pace for around 4,300 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions. In other words, he's quite good. And he's in quite a good position to succeed against this Las Vegas defense, which has been torn apart by just about everyone who has faced it.
It doesn't help that the Raiders don't really have anybody capable of covering Keenan Allen, who remains the league's best route-runner and one of its most consistent weapons, whether lined up outside or in the slot. Allen went for 9-103-1 on 11 targets the last time these two teams played, and it kind of felt like they left some yards on the field. With Austin Ekeler back out there and soaking up most of the running back work, Herbert has yet another outlet to whom he can get the ball and count on getting yardage after the catch. The Raiders have been lit up by running backs all season, and they rank just 22nd in DVOA on passes to players coming out of the backfield. Ekeler should have an advantage on their linebackers and safeties, and Herbert has shown himself incredibly willing to work that matchup when it's available to him.
The one thing working against the Chargers, as usual, is injuries. Offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga is out for this game, while Allen, Ekeler, and Mike Williams are all listed as questionable. Williams seems least likely of the three to suit up after he left last week's game and got in limited practices this week, but he's also the most replaceable, as we saw last week when Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton slid into his role against Atlanta.
When the Raiders have the ball
It's tough to know what to make of this Raiders offense right now. Since their game against the Chiefs, the offense has taken a nosedive. Yes, they scored 27-plus points and gained 420-plus yards in each of their last two games, but one was against the Jets (and they barely snuck away with a win in that game) and the other was essentially a blowout loss to the Colts. Prior to that, the offense was completely shut down by the Falcons, of all teams.
And it's a bit strange because earlier in the year, the offense was kind of rolling. Through 10 games, the Raiders averaged 359.4 yards and 28.6 points per contest, scoring 30-plus in six of 10 games along the way. Derek Carr still has excellent season-long numbers, but there's been a noticeable dip during this three-game stretch for him as well, as he's completed only 64 percent of his passes at an average of just 7.2 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns and four interceptions. That's compared with 70 percent, 7.7 per attempt, 19 touchdowns, and just three picks in the 10 prior games.
Some of the downturn has to be attributable to the fact that Carr has been under pressure more often. He's never been all that adept at dealing with rushers in his face, and this season has been no different. According to Pro Football Focus and Tru Media, Vegas' pressure rate has spiked from 30 percent to 35 percent over the past three weeks, as Carr's performance (and the offense's overall) have taken a step backwards. On the season, Carr has a 64.9 passer rating under pressure, throwing just three touchdowns against four interceptions. His rating has jumped more than 50 points, to 115.1, when throwing from a clean pocket.
So the key in this game, then, will be keeping him well protected. The Chargers have pressured opponents on 36 percent of dropbacks, per PFF and Tru Media, a rate just south of the 37 percent league average. But Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are extremely capable, and have proven their ability to take over games on occasion. It'll be important for the Raiders' offensive line to make sure those guys don't get too many one-on-one opportunities, and to have Carr get the ball out quickly when they're singled up on the edge.
His top pass-catching option, Darren Waller, should have a nice matchup in this game, with the Chargers ranking just 20th in DVOA on passes thrown to tight ends, per Football Outsiders. While ordinarily they'd have Derwin James to match up with Waller, that's obviously not the case this season. He went for 5-22-1 the last time these teams matched up, and could have easily done more damage with his 10 targets on only 44 total snaps. The Raiders should be committed to getting him the ball early and often over the middle, helping loosen things up on the outside.
With Henry Ruggs III due to miss this game after going on the COVID-19 list, the Raiders will need Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow to remain big parts of the game plan as well. Agholor has looked better and more focused this season than he ever was in Philadelphia, but he's still prone to the occasional drop. Renfrow is never going to be a particularly explosive player, but he knows how to get open and should provide Carr with an outlet if and when he's under pressure. The challenge will be getting the ball downfield on this defense without the home-run hitter on the perimeter.
The Raiders would likely prefer to control the game with their Josh Jacobs-led rushing attack, but that strategy has only been varyingly successful throughout this season. Jacobs is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry, and he's exceeded 4 per carry in only four of 12 contests. The Chargers have one of the NFL's weakest run defense's (31st in DVOA), though, so perhaps there is more of an opportunity to pursue that style here than there has been in other games.
Prediction: Chargers 34, Raiders 30
