Who is the most clutch QB in the NFL? Which QB do you want with the ball in his hands with the game on the line? These are probably debates you've heard before where people spit out a list that looks identical to the list of best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Well, this exercise will be a little bit different. I let the numbers do the talking to answer these age-old questions. I used two stats:
- QB conversion rate on game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and overtime
- Expected points added (EPA) per play in these situations (looks at value added on all plays between rushes, passes, sacks and fumbles)
Essentially, how often does a QB lead his team down the field successfully in do-or-die situations, and how does he perform on those drives. I broke those numbers down between a QBs career in the regular season, career in the playoffs, and 2022 performance. All of these were evenly weighted and used to churn out this top 10 list of the most clutch QB in the NFL.
Last disclaimer. I only looked at the 25 current starting QBs with NFL experience. So rookies and other projected starters with only a few starts (like Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell) weren't considered.
Without further ado:
10. Jared Goff
Jared Goff just beat out Derek Carr for the last spot on this list. He converted on 5 of 11 game-tying or go-ahead drives late in games in 2022, the fifth highest rate in the NFL. He was also third in EPA per play in those situations. His career numbers in the clutch are average, but he was carried by a bounceback year last season.
He notably threw a late game-winning touchdown pass on the road against the Jets, and led a game-winning drive in the last game of the regular season at Lambeau Field, outdueling Aaron Rodgers. If there's one throw that got away, it was a missed deep ball on Thanksgiving that could have given Detroit a win against the Bills. Instead Detroit settled for a field goal and Josh Allen played hero.
| Jared Goff NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 13th |
2022 Conversion Rate | 5th |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 8th |
Regular Season EPA/play | 19th |
2022 EPA/play | 3rd |
9. Aaron Rodgers
If this list was based solely on what a QB has done in his career, Rodgers' resume would surely put him in the top 3, but my formula evenly weights career performance and 2022, and Rodgers is coming off the worst season of his career. That extended to play in the clutch, where Rodgers notably fell short on potential game-winning drives in both games against the Lions, the latter which would have gotten Green Bay into the playoffs.
Rodgers converted on just 6 of 18 potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime last season. He still cracks the top 10 thanks to a laundry list of clutch theatrics in his career. He's converted on 9 of 16 of those clutch drives in the playoffs, second-best among current starters behind only Mahomes. His Hail Mary's to Richard Rodgers and Jeff Janis, plus the iconic sideline throw to Jared Cook in the playoffs will never be forgotten.
Aaron Rodgers
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) March 13, 2021
Jared Cook
Playoff Immortality pic.twitter.com/P34DCgOOIH
| Aaron Rodgers NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 8th |
2022 Conversion Rate | 12th |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 2nd |
Regular Season EPA/play | 6th |
2022 EPA/play | 18th |
8. Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott's stock is down right now after leading the NFL in interceptions last year and failing to put Dallas on his shoulders in back-to-back playoff losses to the 49ers in the last two postseasons. He's converted on just 3 of 9 potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of his playoff career. His playoff resume is lacking, but he's been steady throughout the regular season in the clutch department, ranking top 10 in conversion rates in his career and in 2022.
| Dak Prescott NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 6th |
2022 Conversion Rate | 7th |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 10th |
Regular Season EPA/play | 7th |
2022 EPA/play | 16th |
7. Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo is probably higher on this list than you expected, and full disclosure, some credit goes to his supporting cast. His high ranking is driven by a top 5 rank in clutch EPA per play in both his regular season career and in 2022. He notably averages 8.9 yards per pass attempt in the fourth quarter or overtime on potential game-tying or go-ahead drives. One of his best moments includes leading a 49ers' game-tying touchdown drive in the two-minute drill in the 2021 regular season finale at the Rams. San Francisco won that game in overtime to make the playoffs.
His shortcomings have been apparent in the playoffs, where he's converted on 1 of 5 potential game-tying or go-ahead drives late in games.
| Jimmy Garoppolo NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 11th |
2022 Conversion Rate | 12th |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 11th |
Regular Season EPA/play | 4th |
2022 EPA/play | 5th |
6. Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow solidified his status as "Joe Cool" with thrilling wins in each of his first three matchups against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. His conversation rates on game-tying or go-ahead drive chances are at least 40 percent across the board: regular season career, playoff career and in 2022. He's top 10 among current starters in all three categories.
His clutch resume isn't perfect though. The Bengals failed to score in their last five drives of the Super Bowl loss to the Rams. They also failed to score on their final two drives of the most recent AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs.
| Joe Burrow NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 10th |
2022 Conversion Rate | 6th |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 9th |
Regular Season EPA/play | 13th |
2022 EPA/play | 4th |
5. Josh Allen
The Bills shook off the "can't win close games" narrative in 2022 thanks to some heroics from Josh Allen on clutch drives against the Ravens, Chiefs and Lions. His throw to Stefon Diggs to get Buffalo in field goal range on Thanksgiving is one that only a few in the world can make.
Allen also went throw-for-throw with Patrick Mahomes in one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history, a Chiefs 42-36 win in the 2021 divisional playoffs. Allen can climb higher on this list with more consistency and better decision making. His overtime interception in a loss to the Vikings in 2022 comes to mind in that department.
| Josh Allen NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 4th |
2022 Conversion Rate | 9th |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 3rd |
Regular Season EPA/play | 8th |
2022 EPA/play | 13th |
4. Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson's electrifying play has yet to translate to the postseason, where he doesn't have much of a sample size, but it has been among the league's best during the regular season. He's converted on 51% of potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of his regular season career. The only current starting QBs with higher rates are Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes.
He flashed his dual-threat value in clutch situations early in 2021, beating the Chiefs in Week 2 primarily with his legs (two fourth-quarter touchdown runs and sealed game with fourth-down run) and the Colts in Week 5 with his arm (three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and OT of a 19-point comeback win).
He didn't perform well enough in these situations in 2022, as Baltimore blew big leads to the Dolphins, Bills, Giants and Jaguars, but that should change in 2023 with a better supporting cast and new offensive coordinator.
| Lamar Jackson NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 3rd |
2022 Conversion Rate | 3rd |
Playoff Conversion Rate | Not qualified |
Regular Season EPA/play | 11th |
2022 EPA/play | 10th |
3. Kirk Cousins
To steal a viral phrase from Kirk Cousins, "You like that!" Cousins' clutch career has been so much more than the 24-point comeback he led in 2015 leading to that quote. He lands third on this list after he was Mr. Clutch in the 2022 season, converting on an NFL-high 71% (12-17) of potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime.
He's part of the reason the Vikings set or tied NFL records in the following categories in 2022
- Largest comeback in NFL history (33 points)
- Most one-score wins in a season (11)
- Most comeback wins in a season (10)
- Most fourth-quarter comeback wins in a season (8)
- Most 10+ point fourth-quarter comeback wins in a season (4)
Cousins also led eight game-winning drives, tying an NFL-record shared with Matthew Stafford in 2016. His throw to set up Minnesota's game-winning field goal in overtime in Buffalo was among his best of the season.
Unfortunately Cousins' season will be remembered for his last throw, this one that was well short of the chains in the Vikings' playoff loss to the Giants. As you can see from the above notes, he offers plenty more in the clutch than just his last throw.
Giants deny the Vikings!
— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2023
📺: #NYGvsMIN on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/uuhRH8WYIn pic.twitter.com/CIPFPUD3Ao
| Kirk Cousins NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 12th |
2022 Conversion Rate | 1st |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 4th |
Regular Season EPA/play | 14th |
2022 EPA/play | 2nd |
2. Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa was cooking in the clutch until he was slowed down by multiple head injuries last season. He actually threw three fourth-quarter interceptions in a late, close loss to the Packers in Week 16 after suffering a concussion earlier in the contest. Despite an off day that skews his numbers, he's still converted on 11of 20 potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in late, close games in his career, the second-best rate in the league behind Patrick Mahomes.
His clutch credentials include four fourth-quarter touchdown passes in a 21-point comeback win against the Ravens in 2022. Plus, don't forget his walk-off touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith in the national championship game. If the "clutch gene" exists, it's hard to argue against Tagovailoa.
| Tua Tagovailoa NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 2nd |
2022 Conversion Rate | 12th |
Playoff Conversion Rate | Not qualified |
Regular Season EPA/play | 2nd |
2022 EPA/play | 9th |
1. Patrick Mahomes
When it comes to clutch QB play, there's Patrick Mahomes, and there's everyone else. He leads all current starting QBs in virtually every clutch category. He's converted on 59% of potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of his regular-season career. That's the best in the league and well above his closest contemporaries, Josh Allen (44%) and Joe Burrow (41%). He's converted 65% (11 for 17) of those chances in the playoffs, also the best in the league.
He further cemented himself as the best quarterback in the game (and most clutch) with a first-down scramble on a bad ankle to set up the game-winning field goal in the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals. He had another long scramble on the game-winning drive in the Super Bowl win against the Eagles. He also had just one incompletion in the second half of that Super Bowl.
He's proven time and time again in his career, no matter the deficit, how much time is left on the clock, or the injury, he can pull off some kind of miracle. The Chiefs' overtime-forcing drive in their instant classic win against the Bills marked the latest start time (13 seconds left) for a game-tying or go-ahead drive in playoff history. The man has a 14-10 career record when trailing by double-digits at any point in a game. Just remarkable.
| Patrick Mahomes NFL Rankings on Potential Game-Tying/Go-Ahead Drives in 4th Quarter/OT | |
|---|---|
Regular Season Conversion Rate | 1st |
2022 Conversion Rate | 2nd |
Playoff Conversion Rate | 1st |
Regular Season EPA/play | 1st |
2022 EPA/play | 1st |
