The NFL continues to showcase an immense amount of parity -- or mediocrity -- around the league this year as more upsets happened in a Sunday slate with a bunch of exciting games. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns had huge victories over the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, altering the playoff picture as the league is set to shift into December. 

With three games on Thanksgiving, there wasn't a full slate of Sunday action -- but there was enough for plenty of overreactions to all the early afternoon games. Which overreactions will stick this week? 

The Jets should stick with Mike White the rest of the way

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Mike White
NYJ • QB • #5
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White did more than enough to win the starting quarterback job for the rest of the season, finishing 22 of 28 for 315 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions (149.3 rating) in a blowout win over the Bears. Even if Chicago's defense is ranked 27th in the NFL in points allowed, it was eighth in the league against the pass -- and White threw for more than 300 yards.

White threw for 235 yards in the first half, the most first-half passing yards by a Jets quarterback in a game since 2006. He completed passes to 10 different receivers and threw two touchdown passes to Garrett Wilson (whose only touchdown catches this year are from quarterbacks not named Zach Wilson). 

The Jets' passing game works more efficiently with White in there. He has to remain the starting quarterback during this run to the playoffs. 

Commanders will make the playoffs 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Taylor Heinicke
WAS • QB • #4
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This conversation will be revisited several times in December, but that just shows how far the Commanders have come over the past seven weeks. The Commanders were 1-4 after five games and appeared buried in a loaded NFC East. But since Carson Wentz suffered a thumb injury, Washington has lost just one game with Taylor Heinicke

Washington's defense has been the catalyst behind the resurgence, allowing just 15.4 points per game over the past seven games. It hasn't allowed more than 21 points in any of these games, giving Heinicke enough wiggle room to manage the game and get the offense enough points to victory.

Is it a playoff team? Washington is currently the No. 7 seed, taking over the final playoff spot after the Seahawks loss. It's playoff chances will come down to the next two games against the Giants (with a bye week in between). A sweep will put the Commanders in the driver's seat for a postseason spot. 

Washington has played like a playoff team, but the Commanders still have parts of the mountain to climb. 

Tua Tagovailoa can't put up MVP numbers without Terron Armstead

Tua Tagovailoa
MIA • QB • #1
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Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Dolphins were wise to pull Tagovailoa when they did in Sunday's blowout win over the Texans. Tagovailoa had a solid afternoon, finishing 22 of 36 for 299 yards and a touchdown, yet a significant injury on the offensive line significantly halted his production. 

Terron Armstead suffered a pectoral injury late in the first half and didn't return, significantly altering the pass offense. Tagovailoa was sacked four times in a span of nine plays, but was 2 of 2 for 21 yards in the second half. 

This is a wait-and-see situation. The Dolphins were up, 30-0, at halftime and had little reason to play in the second half other than milking clock. Let's see if Armstead is out next week and how Tagovailoa and the offense fares without his best tackle.

Steve Wilks should be the head coach of the Panthers in 2023 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

D'Onta Foreman
CAR • RB • #33
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The Panthers are 3-4 under Wilks, no longer showing they are one of the worst franchises in the league like they were in the Matt Rhule era. Even with three different starting quarterbacks, the Panthers defense has held opposing offenses to 15 points or less in four of those games. 

Even though the Panthers beat the Broncos, Wilks had his most impressive performance as interim coach -- with starting Sam Darnold being his best move. Darnold went 11 of 19 for 164 yards with a touchdown as Carolina put up 349 yards of offense (second-highest total this year). This was against a Broncos defense that allowed the third-fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns this year. 

Carolina is in the early stages of a rebuild and might be doing the same in 2023. In an NFC South that's winnable next year, why not go with Wilks? The Panthers are clearly competitive under him.

The Buccaneers are still in good shape in the NFC South

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Tom Brady
TB • QB • #12
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Tampa Bay doesn't have the look of a Super Bowl contender in the NFC (Sunday's loss to Cleveland was bad), yet the Buccaneers should still be a playoff team. Who is going to compete with Tampa Bay in the NFC South? 

Atlanta lost to Washington, so the Falcons (half game back of Buccaneers) didn't gain any ground -- and lost to Tampa Bay. The Panthers beat the Buccaneers, but their playoff chances are slim at 4-8. The Saints (4-8) appear to be the worst team in the division. 

The Buccaneers have more to fight for, but they still are in good shape in terms of winning the division. 

Lamar Jackson is just as responsible for the Ravens' fourth-quarter collapses

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Jackson's fourth-quarter stats are nothing to write home about, as he's 41 of 64 for 502 yards with two touchdowns to four interceptions with a 72.5 passer rating. In Sunday's loss to the Jaguars, Jackson completed 3 of his 5 passes for 86 yards with a touchdown and a 143.8 passer rating to go along with two carries for 14 yards. His performance Sunday wasn't the reason the Ravens collapsed -- that's on the defense. 

Two interceptions against Buffalo played a huge role in blowing that double-digit lead. An interception against New York also played a part in that double-digit collapse. But it's hard to pin Jackson for all of these collapses when the defense can't get off the field. 

The Bengals will win the AFC North 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Cincinnati is currently tied for first in the AFC North after its win over Tennessee and Baltimore's loss to Jacksonville. The Bengals rallied from an 0-2 start to get to 7-4 through 11 games, but still have a tough schedule ahead over the next couple weeks. 

Cincinnati faces Kansas City at home before facing Cleveland with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. The Bengals also face the Buccaneers on the road, along with the Patriots right after that contest. Cincinnati closes with Buffalo and Baltimore at home.

The Ravens have the easiest schedule left, playing just one game against a team .500 or better -- the Bengals in Week 18. Advantage Baltimore, but the margin of error is thin. Since the Ravens have the tiebreaker, they have the edge.